Try the model
APP

App State 56 at Georgia State 27

GAST
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Center Parc Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:04 · Brandon Wright punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Pregame prior−7.5Home team on offense−52.7Score differential−41.4Garbage-time factor−18.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:38: Zac Thomas pass intercepted for a TD Chris Bacon return for no gain for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +4.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:20: Zac Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +11.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:18: Dan Ellington pass intercepted for a TD Shaun Jolly return for 30 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +9.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:22: Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +6.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:58: Darrynton Evans run for 29 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +7.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:18APP 4th & 8 at APP 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:23APP 4th & 17 at GAST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:48APP 4th & 10 at APP 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:33APP 4th & 9 at GAST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:33GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:20APP 4th & 1 at GAST 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.7%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−2.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:20GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:15APP 4th & 9 at APP 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 7 at APP 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:28GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:28APP 4th & 1 at APP 31, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:27GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:35GAST 4th & 11 at APP 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:55GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:04GAST 4th & 9 at APP 47, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:17APP 4th & 5 at APP 20, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 8:20GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:13APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:21GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:38GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:09APP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:20APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:18APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:22APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:58APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:55APP Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:04APP Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:35GAST Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
16.0%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
16.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
16.0%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
16.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan Ifedi, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+5
16.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 38 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 5 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
16.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
16.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
16.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Quavian WhiteSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
16.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 36 yds , Quavian White returns for no gain to the GeoSt 34 Quavian White fumbled, recovered by AppSt Logan DoublinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
17.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-15
17.0%
Evans, D. rush for 2 yards to the GSU24 (White, Quavian), PENALTY APP personal foul 15 yards to the GSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 17
OPP 41
0
17.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete, broken up by - StephensmcqueenSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 17
OPP 41
0
17.2%
Raykwon Anderson pass incomplete to Zac ThomasSimilar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
17.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:0118% → 21%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
17.8%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+12
17.8%
Tra Barnett run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
17.8%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
18.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cadarrius Thompson, broken up by Shaun JollySimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+44
17.9%
Tra Barnett run for 44 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
18.1%
Destin Coates run for 11 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-14
18.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the AppSt 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Dan EllingtonSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+14
18.0%
Destin Coates run for 14 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 4 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 3:0779% → 80%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
21.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+6
21.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+21
21.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 21 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
21.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 27 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
21.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
21.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+2
21.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
20.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 12 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.8%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
20.8%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
20.5%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+17
20.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 39 , Thomas Hennigan returns for 17 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
21.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
21.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
21.8%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:0722% → 26%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
21.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 14 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
21.9%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+67
25.8%
Destin Coates run for 67 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9INT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4374% → 70%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
25.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
30.5%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted for a TD Chris Bacon return for no gain for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2970% → 75%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
30.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
50
+15
29.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 15 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
28.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
25.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 20 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0928% → 27%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.9%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
28.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 5 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
27.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
27.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12MISSED FG
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:4172% → 71%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
28.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 50 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
26.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 1 yd to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
26.1%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
27.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik Williams, broken up by Cedric StoneSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
29.4%
Chandler Staton 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
30.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 2 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
30.5%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
29.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+15
29.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 43 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 15 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:4470% → 74%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
30.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+9
30.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+6
29.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
29.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 11 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
28.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
28.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
32.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+2
32.6%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+10
34.8%
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
26.1%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete, broken up by E.J. ScottSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
30.1%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
29.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cadarrius Thompson, broken up by Shaun JollySimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
28.8%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1473% → 70%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
27.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
28.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-1
28.0%
Zac Thomas sacked by Jhi'Shawn Taylor and Hardrick Willis for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
29.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17INT TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0232% → 22%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
32.0%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+6
31.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 6 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+30
22.1%
Dan Ellington pass intercepted for a TD Shaun Jolly return for 30 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.5%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
22.4%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
21.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 12 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
23.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 6 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
24.1%
Dan Ellington pass intercepted Shaun Jolly return for no gain to the GeoSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:3382% → 88%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
18.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik Williams, broken up by Courtney WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
18.4%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Terry Thomas) to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
17.3%
Zac Thomas run for 31 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
17.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
13.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
13.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
14.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Quavian WhiteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
14.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.4%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
15.0%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-6
14.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-3
14.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 61 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
13.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+10
13.2%
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
13.1%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 21Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+6
13.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+4
13.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 4 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
13.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
12.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan Ifedi, broken up by Shaun JollySimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
12.6%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
12.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
12.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:4389% → 97%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
11.2%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+40
11.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 40 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
10.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+29
2.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 29 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:235% → 4%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
4.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
4.8%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
4.9%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
4.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 25 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
5.2%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
5.4%
Ellington, Dan pass complete to Thompson, C. for 19 yards to the APP17 (Jean-Charles, S), PENALTY GSU ineligible downfield on pass (Bartlett, Pat) 5 yards to the APP41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
5.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Aubry PayneSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
4.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cadarrius Thompson, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 11
OPP 41
-8
3.9%
Dan Ellington sacked by D'Marco Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:3098% → 100%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
2.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 9 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
2.2%
Raykwon Anderson run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
2.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+10
2.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 10 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
2.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+4
2.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+24
0.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 24 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.7%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
0.7%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
0.6%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
0.6%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
0.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 32 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+25
0.4%
Raykwon Anderson run for 25 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.4%
Raykwon Anderson run for no gain to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.3%
Raykwon Anderson run for 5 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
0.2%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Matlin Marshall for 12 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.2%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Aubry Payne, broken up by Kaiden SmithSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
0.2%
Cornelious Brown run for 1 yd to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Cadarrius ThompsonSimilar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
0.2%
Raykwon Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+4
0.3%
Raykwon Anderson run for 4 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+2
0.2%
Raykwon Anderson run for 2 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
0.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds, downed at the GeoSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 32TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.1%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Donavon Grier for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
0.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+34
0.1%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 34 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
0.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 20 yds for a TD (Barry Brown PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 33END OF GAME
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
Raykwon Anderson run for 9 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
0.2%
Raykwon Anderson run for 1 yd to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.2%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Ryker Casey for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
0.2%
Raykwon Anderson run for 1 yd to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+13
0.2%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 13 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
0.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
0.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:20
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q2 2:18
Dan Ellington pass intercepted for a TD Shaun Jolly return for 30 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 5:58
Darrynton Evans run for 29 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com