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GAST

Georgia State 31 at UL Monroe 45

ULM
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Jared Porter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−8.6Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:28: Josh Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +5.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:50: Tra Barnett run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +8.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:16: Josh Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +17.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:24: Tra Barnett run for 7 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +15.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:40: Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 1 yd for a TD (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +26.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26GAST 4th & 7 at ULM 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:47GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:43ULM 4th & 4 at GAST 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.5
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−6.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:09GAST 4th & 4 at ULM 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−8.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:24ULM 4th & 1 at GAST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−3.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−12.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:38ULM 4th & 13 at GAST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−11.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.0%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:16ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:57GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 28, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:07GAST 4th & 5 at ULM 19, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:59ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:25GAST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:47ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:54GAST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:28ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:50GAST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:16ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:24GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:40ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−1.6
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:46ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
41.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 6 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
41.4%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
41.4%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
41.4%
Jared Porter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:3858% → 57%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
42.0%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
41.9%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.8%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
41.9%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 6
50
+12
41.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 12 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
41.8%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
41.8%
Destin Coates run for 8 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
41.8%
Destin Coates run for 6 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
41.7%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
41.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Tra BarnettSimilar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
41.8%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
42.6%
Brandon Wright 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:2743% → 47%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
42.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
42.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCray, broken up by Cedric StoneSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+12
42.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 12 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
42.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
42.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 5 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
42.7%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
42.7%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
43.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 30 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
43.5%
Josh Johnson run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+16
46.6%
Caleb Evans run for 16 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3455% → 58%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.5%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
45.0%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
45.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
44.7%
Dan Ellington run for 9 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
44.5%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
44.4%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
44.6%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to Ifedi, Jonathan, PENALTY ULM offside (Day, Chase) 5 yards to the ULM37, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
42.5%
Destin Coates run for 37 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 1:3843% → 48%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
43.0%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+36
43.1%
Josh Johnson run for 36 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
44.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
44.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Malik Jackson for 9 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+43
48.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 43 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.0%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
46.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Destin CoatesSimilar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
47.4%
Dan Ellington sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
48.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:2848% → 49%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
47.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach Jackson, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
47.6%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+5
48.1%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Hodoh, Jonathan, PENALTY GSU offside (Lain, Javonte) 5 yards to the ULM43, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for no gain to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
48.4%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
48.5%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Victor Heyward return for 1 yd to the GeoSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:4553% → 58%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
47.0%
Tra Barnett run for 11 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
46.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 8 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+40
41.7%
Dan Ellington run for 40 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2644% → 54%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
43.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 37 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
46.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
46.0%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+7
45.9%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
46.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 1 yd to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
46.7%
Kayin White run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+7
47.3%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
48.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 4 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
53.9%
Josh Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3849% → 60%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.5%
Barnett, Tra rush for 6 yards to the GSU31 (Veasley, Jaylen;Shaw, Larance), PENALTY ULM substitution infraction 5 yards to the GSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-4
50.5%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 36 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 9
OWN 26
+3
51.3%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
51.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 6 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
51.0%
Dan Ellington run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
50
+8
49.3%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+1
49.2%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 41Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+14
49.4%
Dan Ellington run for 14 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
48.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 13 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
48.4%
Destin Coates run for 5 yds to the LaMon 9Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+3
48.4%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+5
49.4%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.5%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:0745% → 51%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
45.0%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
44.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 4 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
46.9%
Josh Johnson run for 9 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
47.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Malik Jackson for 9 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
47.6%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
47.5%
Caleb Evans run for 21 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
48.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Malik Jackson for 5 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
48.8%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
45.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh Pederson, broken up by Remy LazarusSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
51.1%
Jared Porter 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:3554% → 56%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.1%
Dan Ellington run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
44.2%
Tra Barnett run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
50
0
43.0%
Cornelious Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
50
+18
43.8%
Tra Barnett run for 18 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:5154% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.5%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
45.7%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
46.5%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
45.0%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+31
45.2%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 31 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
42.5%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
42.2%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
43.4%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Keilos SwinneySimilar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
46.5%
Brandon Wright 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Josh Newton return for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:5350% → 68%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
50.2%
Caleb Evans run for 14 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+46
50.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 46 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
68.4%
Josh Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5236% → 57%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
63.8%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
61.6%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
62.7%
Destin Coates run for 41 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
58.3%
Destin Coates run for 6 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
58.3%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+4
60.1%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
58.3%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
42.9%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16MISSED FG
17 plays · 52 yds · 6:4652% → 52%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 12 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
52.9%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
53.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
54.2%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
55.2%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+16
55.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 16 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
57.0%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+3
57.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
55.4%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
53.8%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-9
57.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 1 yd to the GeoSt 19 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (Jonathan Hodoh) to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 19
OPP 29
-10
56.2%
Johnson, Josh rush for 4 yards to the GSU25 (Veneziale, J.), PENALTY ULM holding (Ellison, Trace) 10 yards to the GSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 29
OPP 39
+8
54.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 8 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 21
OPP 31
0
54.9%
Josh Pederson pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 21
OPP 31
+8
53.0%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+41
52.1%
Jared Porter 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:3851% → 50%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
49.1%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
48.1%
Cornelious Brown run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
48.1%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+4
50.5%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
47.9%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 0
0
42.7%
PENALTY GSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY ULM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-10
46.6%
Brown, C. pass incomplete to Pinckney, Sam (Straughter, Cor), PENALTY GSU holding (Gilmore, S.) 10 yards to the GSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+5
50.1%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+9
51.2%
Cornelious Brown run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
49.7%
Brandon Wright punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:0255% → 87%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
54.9%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+14
58.1%
Josh Johnson run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
59.6%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
59.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
58.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
60.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+12
61.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 12 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
61.0%
Josh Johnson run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
61.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.0%
Austin Vaughn run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 1 yd for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:0021% → 24%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
79.4%
Tra Barnett run for 18 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
76.2%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the LaMon 36 Tra Barnett fumbled, forced by Tyler Glass, recovered by LaMon Traveion WebsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 86%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
87.5%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
88.0%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
87.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
86.3%
Jared Porter punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
83.6%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
84.0%
Cornelious Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
85.2%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
86.0%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:3091% → 98%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
90.8%
Josh Johnson run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+6
90.8%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
90.8%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
90.8%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
98.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 14 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23DOWNS
17 plays · 60 yds · 1:393% → 2%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.3%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.1%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Devin Gentry for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
97.1%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
97.2%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Devin Gentry for 9 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
97.0%
Brown, C. pass complete to Carter, Roger for 5 yards to the ULM46 (Swinney, Keilos), PENALTY ULM offside (Sisco, Cortez) 5 yards to the ULM46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 5
OPP 46
+1
96.9%
Cornelious Brown run for 1 yd to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
96.9%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Destin Coates, broken up by Cortez Sisco Jr.Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+10
97.1%
Destin Coates run for 10 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
96.8%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 3 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST down lat. to Destin Coates for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST down to Destin Coates for 12 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
96.6%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 5 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
96.6%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Tra Barnett, broken up by Logan LatinSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
96.9%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+4
98.2%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Destin Coates for 4 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 12
OWN 13
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:40
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 1 yd for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)
+26
TD · Q3 11:16
Josh Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)
+17.9
TD · Q3 8:24
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)
-15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com