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ARST

Arkansas State 48 at UL Monroe 41

ULM
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-7.3ULM 36.5%Blake Grupe 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 34 - HOME 28 · Q3 9:29
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:29 · Blake Grupe 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingOne-score game
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense−8.9Score differential−2.8Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6One-score game−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:03: Caleb Evans run for 16 yds for a TD — ULM win probability +14.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 4:20: Caleb Evans run for 23 yds for a TD (Jared Porter PAT MISSED) — ULM win probability +13.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:58: Marcel Murray run for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +22.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:26: Jamal Jones run for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +15.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:21: Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 11 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +22.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:58ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:13ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:56ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 15, down 14
    Close callPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:16ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:41ARST 4th & 7 at ULM 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:09ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:44ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:59ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.9%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:24ULM 4th & 6 at ARST 30, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.7%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 29, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:29ARST 4th & 11 at ULM 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−11.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:29ULM 4th & 18 at ULM 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−4.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:20ARST 4th & 3 at ULM 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−5.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:03ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−4.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:58ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:26ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:06ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:58ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 20, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:07ULM 4th & 5 at ARST 45, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%
    25% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:03ARST 4th & 26 at ARST 45, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.9%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:58ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:56ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:18ULM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:50ARST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:28ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:09ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:27ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:03ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:20ULM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:58ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:26ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.9
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:21ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0250% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.6%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
49.6%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
50.1%
Caleb Evans run for 67 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
50.1%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-8
50.1%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 32 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Layne HatcherSimilar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+5
50.2%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
50.2%
Cody Grace punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
51.1%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
51.1%
Markis McCray run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 23Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+11
51.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 11 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
51.2%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+6
51.2%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
51.3%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
51.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 6
50
+3
51.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-6
51.3%
Caleb Evans sacked by Tajhea Chambers for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
51.0%
Jared Porter punt for 48 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for no gain to the ArkSt 6 B.J. Edmonds fumbled, recovered by LaMon Traveion WebsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.7%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
57.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+1
57.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 1 yd to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+5
57.4%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 2
OWN 15
-2
57.5%
Cody Grace punt for 50 yds , Perry Carter Jr. returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4460% → 62%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
60.1%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-3
60.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
59.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 5 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
62.1%
Jared Porter punt for 40 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:2738% → 41%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
61.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 9 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+7
61.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 7 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
61.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+33
61.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 33 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
60.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
60.1%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-1
60.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Ivin White Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 26 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 0:41
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
59.4%
Blake Grupe 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2360% → 71%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.8%
Josh Johnson run for 7 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
60.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Logan Wescott) to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
61.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 23 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
70.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 34 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2832% → 39%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
68.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 18 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
60.8%
Marcel Murray run for 57 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:5361% → 66%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
61.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 7 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Antonio Fletcher) to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
62.3%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
62.5%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
62.0%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
62.3%
Caleb Evans run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
62.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 17
OPP 22
+8
62.3%
Markis McCray run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-8
62.5%
Caleb Evans sacked by Logan Wescott for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 2
OPP 7
-15
62.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+39
66.3%
Jared Porter 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by William Bradley-King TEAM return for no gain to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:2935% → 44%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
65.0%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
65.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for no gain to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+12
65.5%
Marcel Murray run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
64.4%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+13
64.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 13 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
63.2%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
62.2%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY ASU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY ULM holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+46
55.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 46 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:1745% → 54%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
54.6%
PENALTY ASU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY ULM holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
45.6%
Marcel Murray run for 35 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
50.3%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
51.2%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
50.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
49.0%
Jared Porter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
48.4%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-3
48.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+10
49.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
49.9%
Cody Grace punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaMon 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
50.4%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+8
49.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 8 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
51.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Johnson for 3 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
50.8%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the LaMon 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:1555% → 65%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
45.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 15 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
44.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
44.6%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+23
34.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 23 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 1:2436% → 52%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
36.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Johnson for 12 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
37.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+10
38.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
38.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
38.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+4
36.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+14
34.1%
Caleb Evans run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
36.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
51.5%
Caleb Evans run for 16 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
44.1%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:3154% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.9%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
45.7%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
46.8%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+18
47.9%
Cody Grace run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 47 Cody Grace fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Logan Wescott for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
43.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Donald Louis Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+24
45.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 24 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
43.3%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+22
42.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 22 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
42.2%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-3
42.2%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
43.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
36.5%
Blake Grupe 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
41.3%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-10
43.7%
Evans, Caleb rush for no gain to the ULM40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ULM holding (Lamm, Tyler) 10 yards to the ULM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-3
40.6%
Jakyle Holmes run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 18
OWN 27
0
39.1%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+2
38.4%
Jared Porter punt for 37 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22INT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
34.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+1
37.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+18
38.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 18 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Chase DaySimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
33.5%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+22
34.0%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Corey Straughter return for 22 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:5644% → 59%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
43.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+4
45.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
45.3%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
45.3%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
59.2%
Caleb Evans run for 23 yds for a TD (Jared Porter PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
51.3%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Bayless, Omar for 16 yards to the ASU41 (Straughter, Cor), PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass (Horst, Jarrett) 5 yards to the ASU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
51.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
50.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
49.9%
Marcel Murray run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
47.4%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Ty Shelby for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+3
49.6%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+6
49.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
49.6%
Cody Grace punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Perry Carter Jr. at the LaMon 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
55.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
54.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 14Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
53.0%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+20
52.0%
Jared Porter punt for 42 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 20 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:0253% → 78%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
46.7%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 39
0
48.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+35
50.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 35 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
44.7%
Coltin Clack run for no gain to the LaMon 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
44.7%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 6Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
22.5%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.5%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
30.3%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
29.0%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
28.3%
Jared Porter punt for 41 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:3975% → 94%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
24.6%
Marcel Murray run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
22.6%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+15
22.6%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Newton, Josh) 15 yards to the ULM42, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
21.7%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+19
21.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 19 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
21.0%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+2
21.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
5.8%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
7.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 18 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
8.2%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-3
8.2%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
7.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach Jackson, broken up by Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 12
OWN 41
+4
7.3%
Jared Porter punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 19 , B.J. Edmonds returns for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:4495% → 96%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
5.3%
Murray, Marcel rush for 3 yards to the ASU22 (Sisco, Cortez), PENALTY ULM offside (Starks, Kerry) 5 yards to the ASU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 5
OWN 24
+1
5.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
4.8%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
4.7%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
4.4%
Cody Grace punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Perry Carter Jr. at the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 31TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 2:373% → 24%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
2.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
2.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh Pederson, broken up by Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+14
2.4%
Caleb Evans run for 14 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
2.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
50
0
1.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
50
0
1.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 10
50
+5
1.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+15
1.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 15 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
2.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
2.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 7 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+6
1.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 6 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
2.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 6 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
24.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 11 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32DOWNS
7 plays · -16 yds · 2:1892% → 94%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
7.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 14
OPP 43
-4
8.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 18
OPP 47
-3
9.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 21
50
-5
11.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (Layne Hatcher) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 26
OWN 45
0
5.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:21
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 11 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)
+22.5
TD · Q4 12:58
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-22.3
TD · Q4 7:26
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com