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TROY

Troy 33 at Georgia State 52

GAST
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:35 · Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense+4.1Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Pregame prior+3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:14: Seth Paige 65 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick) — GAST win probability +7.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:52: Tra Barnett 5 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick) — GAST win probability +8.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:05: Dan Ellington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +11.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:51: Kaleb Barker pass complete to AJ Lewis for 23 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +9.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:03: DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TROY win probability +9.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 11:02TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:16GAST 4th & 16 at GAST 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:54TROY 4th & 14 at GAST 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:20GAST 4th & 5 at TROY 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:35TROY 4th & 15 at GAST 34, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:52TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:09GAST 4th & 18 at GAST 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00TROY 4th & 11 at GAST 32, down 14
    Close callPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:52GAST 4th & 12 at TROY 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:04GAST 4th & 1 at TROY 41, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:08GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:19TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:33GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:14GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:20TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:52GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:05GAST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:51TROY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:03TROY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:51GAST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:47TROY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:04GAST Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5255% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
54.7%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
54.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 8 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
54.7%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+7
54.7%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
54.7%
Tra Barnett run for 10 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
54.7%
Tra Barnett run for 14 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
55.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+4
55.5%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
57.1%
Dan Ellington run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
56.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 5 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-1
56.5%
Kaleb Barker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
56.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 5 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
56.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
57.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 9 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
58.3%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
58.2%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 13
OWN 43
-3
57.9%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-5
58.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Hunter Atkinson) to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 16
OWN 40
0
57.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
57.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 40 yds , Kaylon Geiger returns for no gain to the Troy 25 Kaylon Geiger fumbled, recovered by Troy Kaylon GeigerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:1542% → 40%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
58.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 11 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by T.J. ArnoldSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.4%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
58.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 4 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
57.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 11 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
57.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Quavian WhiteSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
57.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 12 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
57.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
57.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Bret Clark, broken up by Victor HeywardSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-7
58.0%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Terry Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+51
60.1%
Tyler Sumpter 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5INT
10 plays · 41 yds · 1:3460% → 61%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
60.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 11 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
60.8%
Seth Paige run for 11 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
61.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 5 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
61.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
60.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by TJ HarrisSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+8
59.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 8 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
60.8%
Cornelius McCoy run for 4 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
60.9%
Seth Paige run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+3
60.5%
Dan Ellington pass intercepted Jarvis Hayes return for 3 yds to the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:3139% → 48%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
60.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 5 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+3
60.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 3 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+6
61.0%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 6 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+39
60.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 39 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.5%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
58.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+15
59.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 15 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
58.3%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
51.6%
DK Billingsley 10 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4656% → 64%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
55.9%
Tra Barnett run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
57.2%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
57.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+13
57.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Matlin Marshall for 13 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
63.8%
Aubry Payne 40 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:5137% → 34%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+53
62.8%
DK Billingsley run for 53 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
59.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
59.4%
Luke Whittemore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-8
60.7%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Victor Heyward for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 15
OPP 34
0
66.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
74.0%
Seth Paige 65 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:4627% → 37%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
73.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+64
73.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 64 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
70.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.8%
DK Billingsley 2 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2866% → 78%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.9%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
66.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 17 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
67.5%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
67.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Dan Ellington, broken up by TJ HarrisSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+20
66.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 20 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
70.5%
Tra Barnett run for 19 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
70.5%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
70.5%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
77.9%
Tra Barnett 5 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
77.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
78.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Tyler GoreSimilar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
78.3%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 39 yds , Quavian White returns for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
81.3%
Seth Paige run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-10
81.1%
Dan Ellington sacked by Carlton Martial and Antonio Showers for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 21
OWN 29
+3
80.2%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 18
OWN 32
0
79.5%
Brandon Wright punt for 65 yds, downed at the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 15 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
77.7%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
77.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 5 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+10
76.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
76.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 10 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-9
75.9%
Kaleb Barker sacked by - Stephensmcqueen for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 40
0
77.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 40
-7
78.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 8 yds to the GeoSt 32 TROY Penalty, illegal block (Kaylon Geiger) to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 26
OPP 47
+15
78.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 15 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 32
0
78.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 32 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:5582% → 95%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
82.4%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+11
82.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 11 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
82.5%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-8
83.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 7 yds to the GeoSt 47 GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal block (Cornelius McCoy) to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+17
82.4%
Seth Paige run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
83.3%
Seth Paige run for 7 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
83.3%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+4
82.7%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
83.3%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+4
83.3%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
83.3%
Tra Barnett run for 14 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
83.3%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+8
83.3%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
83.3%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 4Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.3%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.2%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 4:144% → 13%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
96.0%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
96.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+11
96.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 11 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
96.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 23 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
95.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+10
96.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 10 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
95.9%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
95.8%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Tre Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 19
OWN 40
+12
96.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Timmie Gibson for 12 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+25
95.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 10 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Chris Bacon) to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
86.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to AJ Lewis for 23 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:5993% → 96%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
92.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+3
92.8%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
92.8%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
92.8%
Ellington, Dan rush for loss of 3 yards to the TROY30 (Webb, Marcus), PENALTY TROY substitution infraction 5 yards to the TROY22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+14
92.8%
Tra Barnett run for 14 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
92.8%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 13Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
92.8%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the Troy 12Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
92.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Matlin MarshallSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
95.5%
Brandon Wright 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:494% → 14%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
95.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 14 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
95.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+19
95.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 19 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
95.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 38 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.1%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:1290% → 99%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.1%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
90.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 14 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
91.0%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
90.9%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
90.6%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
91.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
91.0%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+10
90.8%
Tra Barnett run for 10 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
91.1%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+7
94.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 7 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+10
94.7%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
94.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:512% → 4%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
97.8%
Kaleb Barker run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+5
97.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 5 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Bret Clark, broken up by Remy LazarusSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:4398% → 99%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
50
+2
97.8%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
97.8%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
97.8%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
99.4%
Tra Barnett run for 41 yds for a TD, (Barry Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 8 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
99.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+8
99.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sam Letton for 8 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
99.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 12 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sam Letton for no gain to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:05
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q4 14:51
Kaleb Barker pass complete to AJ Lewis for 23 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q4 9:03
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com