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TXST

Texas State 14 at Arkansas State 38

ARST
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:19 · Cody Grace punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+3.9Home team on offense+31.2Score differential+23.0Garbage-time factor+12.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:22: Jamal Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +9.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:06: Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +5.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:58: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +11.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:31: Marcel Murray run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +10.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:19: Marcel Murray run for 16 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +9.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 10TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at ARST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:23ARST 4th & 2 at TXST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:01TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:07ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53ARST 4th & 3 at TXST 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.9%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:47TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:06TXST 4th & 1 at ARST 2, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−8.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:57ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−1.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:47ARST 4th & 10 at TXST 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:56ARST 4th & 5 at TXST 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−1.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:45TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−2.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:22ARST 4th & 6 at TXST 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−0.9
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:42TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 12, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:15TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:09ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 1 at TXST 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−4.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:41TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 25, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:19ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 48, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:04TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:01ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:22ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:06TXST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:58TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:31ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:19ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:48ARST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 74 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
77.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+60
77.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 60 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
77.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
77.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
77.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
18 plays · 99 yds · 7:2276% → 78%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
76.4%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+11
76.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 11 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
76.4%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
76.3%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
76.4%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+11
76.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
76.5%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
76.5%
Layne Hatcher run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+7
76.5%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
76.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 4 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
76.7%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
76.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+21
76.5%
Jamal Jones run for 21 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
76.7%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
76.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
77.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
77.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-4
77.3%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
77.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
77.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3478% → 78%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
78.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
77.9%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Omar Bayless) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+7
77.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+1
77.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
77.5%
Cody Grace punt for 47 yds, downed at the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
77.8%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 6Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
77.9%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 8
-7
78.2%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Jeffmario Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 2 Tyler Vitt fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Logan Wescott , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5279% → 79%
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
78.9%
Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the TexSt 3 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Marcel MurraySimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
78.7%
Blake Grupe 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
78.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 7 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
78.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 1 yd to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
78.9%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
79.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:1879% → 89%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
79.1%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+26
79.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 26 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
79.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+17
79.3%
Marcel Murray run for 17 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
79.9%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
79.9%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+8
79.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.5%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:1614% → 21%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
85.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
50
+2
85.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 8
OPP 0
0
84.6%
PENALTY TXST unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY ASU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+37
85.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 37 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
84.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
84.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+5
85.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
79.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
80.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
81.0%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
81.1%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Nikolas Daniels for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 16
OWN 33
-3
80.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 28 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Layne Hatcher , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 21
OWN 28
+2
79.7%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 19
OWN 30
+12
79.1%
Cody Grace punt for 46 yds , Hutch White returns for 12 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:1020% → 33%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
80.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hunter Hebert for 1 yd to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
80.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+18
81.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 18 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
79.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 12 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
78.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 32 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
78.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
67.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:0374% → 72%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
73.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 19 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
74.3%
Hatcher, Layne rush for 4 yards to the TXST34 (LondonII,Bryan), PENALTY ASU HL (Horst, Jarrett) 10 yards to the TXST48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 20
OWN 0
0
71.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for no gain to the TexSt 48 TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+10
73.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
74.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
72.3%
Cody Grace punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
73.2%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
73.9%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
74.1%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 11
50
+6
73.1%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
73.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
72.2%
Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
71.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-8
71.3%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Logan Wescott for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 5Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 14
OWN 5
+1
72.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 6Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 13
OWN 6
+2
73.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt , Jamal Jones returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
84.4%
Marcel Murray run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.1%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Nathan Page return for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
82.9%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
82.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+13
82.1%
Layne Hatcher run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
83.9%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
84.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 6 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
84.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
84.1%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
83.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Khambrail WintersSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
82.5%
Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
83.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 4Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 4
-1
83.8%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 3Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+9
84.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 9 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+34
84.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 34 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
94.3%
Marcel Murray run for 16 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
93.1%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 15
OWN 23
0
93.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 15
OWN 23
0
93.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
93.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for no gain to the ArkSt 40 B.J. Edmonds fumbled, recovered by ArkSt B.J. EdmondsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
94.5%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-5
94.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Ernesto Ramirez) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
94.4%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-5
94.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Omar Bayless) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
94.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
93.6%
Cody Grace punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
94.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
93.9%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Nathan Page return for no gain to the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 6:0395% → 99%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
94.9%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
94.8%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
95.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
95.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 19 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-11
95.5%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Nikolas Daniels for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 46
+7
95.4%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+9
95.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 9 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+15
94.9%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Taylor,AnthonyJ) 15 yards to the TXST15, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
95.5%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+4
95.5%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
95.4%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+4
95.0%
DJ Chatman run for 4 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.5%
DJ Chatman run for no gain to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
98.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hunter Hebert for 1 yd to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+7
98.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 7 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.2%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+4
99.1%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+5
99.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Cody Grace punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 10Similar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
99.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+12
99.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 12 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.3%
Ishmael Davis run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
99.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 100%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.5%
DJ Chatman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
99.5%
DJ Chatman run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+8
99.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-2
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:58
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
-11
TD · Q3 10:31
Marcel Murray run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q3 4:19
Marcel Murray run for 16 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com