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UL

Louisiana 37 at Arkansas State 20

ARST
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 17, 2019 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:00 · Cody Grace punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense+2.0Pregame prior−17.3Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:12: Elijah Mitchell run for 11 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +6.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:35: Raymond Calais run for 80 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +8.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:06: Stevie Artigue 25 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +5.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:35: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 25 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +24.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 6:19: Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue PAT MISSED) — UL win probability +14.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:06UL 4th & 7 at UL 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08UL 4th & 3 at ARST 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 1 at UL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:00ARST 4th & 7 at UL 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:05ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:53ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:06UL 4th & 3 at ARST 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:07ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:31UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:29ARST 4th & 12 at UL 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−3.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:24UL 4th & 5 at UL 48, up 11
    Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.9%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:14ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:13ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:11UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:12UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:35UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:35ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:19UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:18UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
14 plays · 95 yds · 4:4730% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
29.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 10 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
29.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 20 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
29.8%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
29.8%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
29.8%
LOUISIANA Penalty, offside defense (Zi'Yon Hill) to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
29.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
29.8%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+26
29.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 26 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
29.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
29.8%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
29.8%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
29.8%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
34.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
33.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 4 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-6
33.3%
Levi Lewis sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 30 Levi Lewis fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Levi Lewis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+5
33.7%
Levi Lewis run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
33.7%
Rhys Byrns punt for 41 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
35.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
35.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcel MurraySimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+1
34.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 1 yd to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+70
34.6%
Cody Grace punt for 75 yds for a touchback ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:1464% → 63%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.8%
Raymond Calais run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
35.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Javier Carbonell) to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
35.5%
Raymond Calais run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
35.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 7 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
35.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Raymond CalaisSimilar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
35.2%
Raymond Calais run for no gain to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
37.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 35 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+23
38.3%
Marcel Murray run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
38.5%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Zi'Yon Hill and Ja'Quane Nelson for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+4
38.3%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
38.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
37.6%
Cody Grace punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:1361% → 66%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
39.2%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
39.3%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+31
39.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 31 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
38.0%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
38.0%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
37.5%
Levi Lewis run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
37.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 8 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+5
37.5%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.2%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
18 plays · 71 yds · 6:0637% → 43%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
37.4%
Marcel Murray run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
38.0%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
38.4%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
38.5%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
38.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 15 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
39.1%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
39.5%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Merritt, Kirk for 1 yard to the LA34, out-of-bounds, PENALTY LA substitution infraction 5 yards to the LA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
39.5%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+6
38.9%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
39.5%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
39.5%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
39.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
38.3%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
39.5%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
39.5%
Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
39.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
43.1%
Blake Grupe 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:4358% → 67%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
42.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
41.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+13
42.5%
Levi Lewis run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
40.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+16
40.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 16 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
39.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+7
39.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 7 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
39.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
33.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 11 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
35.6%
Marcel Murray run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
36.0%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
36.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
35.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
36.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
36.4%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
35.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
34.6%
Cody Grace punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
26.3%
Raymond Calais run for 80 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:4226% → 25%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
25.8%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
25.7%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-3
25.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
24.5%
Cody Grace punt for 41 yds, downed at the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 1:3376% → 83%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
23.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 11 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
23.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+4
21.9%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
22.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
22.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 14 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
22.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen Williams, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
22.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 7 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
21.6%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
21.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
22.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+7
22.4%
Levi Lewis run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
16.6%
Stevie Artigue 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
20.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
18.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+9
17.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
17.9%
Levi Lewis pass intercepted Jeremy Smith return for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+19
19.6%
Marcel Murray run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
19.8%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+10
19.8%
Marcel Murray run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
20.1%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
20.8%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
20.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 7 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
21.5%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Merritt, Kirk for loss of 1 yard to the ASU44 (Miller, Terik), PENALTY ASU HL (Horst, Jarrett) 10 yards to the ASU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 20
OWN 35
-7
19.8%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Bennie Higgins for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 27
OWN 28
+4
19.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 23
OWN 32
+7
19.4%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 16
OWN 39
0
19.6%
Cody Grace punt for 36 yds, downed at the LaLaf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.5%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
15.6%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
15.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Nathan PageSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
16.2%
Rhys Byrns punt for 44 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:3217% → 20%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
16.5%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+4
17.6%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
17.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
18.1%
Hatcher, Layne rush for 1 yard to the ASU48, out-of-bounds, PENALTY LA substitution infraction 5 yards to the LA48, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
18.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 21 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
19.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+1
18.7%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-6
19.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 4 yds to the LaLaf 20 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Javonis Isaac) to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
18.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Michael Jacquet IIISimilar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+46
19.7%
Blake Grupe 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
20.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+3
19.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
19.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
18.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
18.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
18.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Trey Ragas for 4 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
18.6%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
19.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 4:1818% → 42%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
18.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
18.2%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+15
16.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 15 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
18.4%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
18.8%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
18.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
17.8%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
19.5%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-7
20.1%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Bennie Higgins for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+36
17.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 36 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
42.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 25 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
14 plays · 52 yds · 5:0873% → 90%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
27.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
26.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+10
27.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 10 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
26.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 5 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
25.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 6 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
25.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 10 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
25.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+2
25.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-5
26.8%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Max Mitchell) to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+8
26.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 8 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
25.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
25.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
11.4%
Murray, Marcel rush for 21 yards to the ASU41, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU HL (Harris, Andre) 10 yards to the ASU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
11.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+14
11.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 14 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
10.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
11.9%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+1
13.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
13.2%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-2
11.9%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:1492% → 98%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
8.0%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+38
2.0%
Raymond Calais run for 38 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23INT
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
2.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 17 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+49
2.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 49 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
3.5%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted, touchback. Asjlin Washington return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24END OF GAME
12 plays · 33 yds · 1:3898% → 99%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
2.3%
LOUISIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-10 Yards) to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
2.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
2.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+2
2.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+1
2.3%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+8
2.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
2.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
2.3%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+24
1.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 24 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:35
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 25 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+24.9
TD · Q4 6:19
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue PAT MISSED)
-14.9
TD · Q2 2:35
Raymond Calais run for 80 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com