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GAST

Georgia State 31 at Coastal Carolina 21

CCU
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:44 · Myles Prosser punt for 39 yds, downed at the COASTALCAR 16 GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (8 Yards) to the GeoSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Home team on offense−24.7Score differential−14.1Pregame prior+2.4Garbage-time factor−7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:51: Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +9.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:45: Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 20 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +17.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 7:22: Tra Barnett run for 26 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +16.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:44: Tra Barnett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +17.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:34: Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for 5 yds for a TD, (K. Tyler Run For Two-point Conversion) — CCU win probability +10.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:07CCU 4th & 9 at GAST 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:51GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:00GAST 4th & 6 at CCU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:25GAST 4th & 3 at CCU 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:25CCU 4th & 1 at GAST 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:23CCU 4th & 5 at GAST 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:18CCU 4th & 4 at GAST 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:40CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 25, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:51CCU 4th & 9 at CCU 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:05GAST 4th & 14 at CCU 41, up 11
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−1.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    62.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:22CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:44CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 15, up 18
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:34CCU 4th & 3 at GAST 5, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−5.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:06GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 47, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:21GAST 4th & 3 at CCU 12, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%−0.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−6.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:21CCU 4th & 1 at GAST 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−2.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−8.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 10:46GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:51GAST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:45CCU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:22GAST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:44GAST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:34CCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.2%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-11
58.2%
Dan Ellington sacked by Tarron Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+15
58.2%
Tra Barnett run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
58.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
58.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 8 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-2
58.6%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
58.5%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 4
OPP 37
-5
58.4%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
58.3%
Myles Prosser punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
58.3%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
58.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 6 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+3
58.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Brandon Wright punt for 30 yds, downed at the CCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
58.8%
Fred Payton run for 1 yd to the CCaro 44 Fred Payton fumbled, forced by Remy Lazarus, recovered by GeoSt Terry ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:3542% → 43%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
57.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 17
OWN 49
0
58.2%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+11
58.3%
Dan Ellington run for 11 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+12
58.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 12 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
57.6%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
57.6%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the CCaro 24Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+3
57.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Destin Coates for 3 yds to the CCaro 21Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
57.2%
Brandon Wright 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:0257% → 59%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
57.4%
Fred Payton run for 37 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
58.5%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
58.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 5 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
58.4%
Fred Payton run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
58.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
58.8%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
58.8%
Fred Payton pass complete to Shadell Bell for 5 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
58.4%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
59.0%
Massimo Biscardi 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7INT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.7%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
57.4%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
57.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Cornelius McCoy) to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 14
OWN 31
0
57.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Teddy GallagherSimilar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+8
57.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 8 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+34
57.4%
Dan Ellington pass intercepted Alex Spillum return for 19 yds to the COASTALCAR 42 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0360% → 60%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
60.2%
Aaron Bedgood run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
60.6%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+14
60.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
60.6%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
60.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Shadell Bell, broken up by Cedric StoneSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
60.4%
Massimo Biscardi 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3240% → 47%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.3%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
59.9%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jalin Walker) to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
59.3%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
59.9%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to Pinckney, Sam, QB hurry by Brewer, C., PENALTY CCU roughing passer (Olufemi, M.) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
50
+4
58.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 4 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+46
52.7%
Seth Paige run for 46 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
54.7%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 16Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
54.5%
Fred Payton run for 1 yd to the CCaro 17Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+8
53.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
53.7%
Myles Prosser punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 6:2248% → 63%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
52.4%
Seth Paige run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
51.7%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
51.1%
Seth Paige run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
51.1%
Seth Paige run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+8
51.4%
Dan Ellington run for 8 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
50.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by Mallory ClaybourneSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
50.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 8 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+6
50.8%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the CCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
47.3%
Tra Barnett run for 11 yds to the CCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
47.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 4 yds to the CCaro 16Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
47.0%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the CCaro 13Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+6
48.1%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the CCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
47.0%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the CCaro 4Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
46.2%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the CCaro 3Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
37.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 18 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
39.1%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
38.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
39.6%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 4
OWN 49
-5
38.5%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (Myles Prosser) to the CCaro 44Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
37.5%
Myles Prosser punt for 54 yds, downed at the GeoSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13END OF HALF
14 plays · 92 yds · 1:0963% → 65%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
37.5%
Seth Paige run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+17
37.1%
Seth Paige run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
35.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 6 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
35.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan Ifedi, broken up by Chandler KrystSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+31
36.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 31 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
33.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for no gain to the CCaro 37Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
33.6%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to Gentry, Devin, PENALTY CCU offside defense (Jackson, T.) 5 yards to the CCU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
33.2%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-9
33.5%
Dan Ellington sacked by Ryan Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the CCaro 41Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 14
OPP 41
+35
34.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 35 yds to the CCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1537% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.8%
Fred Payton run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
36.6%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
35.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jai Williams for 13 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
38.2%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+18
38.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 18 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
39.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to T'Qele Holmes for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-10
40.7%
Fred Payton sacked by Hardrick Willis for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 43 Fred Payton fumbled, recovered by CCaro Jack Franklin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+23
37.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for 23 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
55.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 20 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2352% → 73%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.8%
Seth Paige run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
46.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Matlin Marshall for no gain to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
47.7%
Matlin Marshall run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
46.6%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jalin Walker) to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
44.8%
Dan Ellington run for 11 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
43.7%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
43.3%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+26
27.2%
Tra Barnett run for 26 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
29.9%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 24Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
29.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 1 yd to the CCaro 25Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
28.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Jai WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-2
27.8%
Myles Prosser punt for 47 yds , Quavian White returns for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 26 Quavian White fumbled, forced by Jordan Morris, recovered by GeoSt Nygee Williams-MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:5972% → 92%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
28.1%
Seth Paige run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+10
27.7%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.3%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
26.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+57
26.9%
Dan Ellington run for 57 yds to the CCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.8%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the CCaro 2Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.8%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
14.0%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 15 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
15.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 2 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
15.2%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+3
14.8%
Fred Payton run for 3 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+47
14.9%
Myles Prosser punt for 39 yds, downed at the COASTALCAR 16 GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (8 Yards) to the GeoSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3093% → 93%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
7.2%
Seth Paige run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+4
6.9%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+4
7.2%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
7.5%
Brandon Wright punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:5510% → 20%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
9.6%
Jacqez Hairston run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
9.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
9.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
9.6%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+1
9.3%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+5
19.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for 5 yds for a TD, (K. Tyler Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:2881% → 87%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.0%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
18.6%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
19.0%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
17.4%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
17.4%
Seth Paige run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-1
17.7%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+9
13.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 44 yds , Ky'Jon Tyler returns for 9 yds to the CCaro 19 Ky'Jon Tyler fumbled, forced by Tucker Gregg, recovered by GeoSt Keon CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3189% → 91%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
10.8%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the CCaro 19Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
10.8%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the CCaro 18Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+6
9.4%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the CCaro 12Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+30
9.1%
Brandon Wright 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 72 yds · 0:009% → 12%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
9.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for 20 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
10.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
10.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete, broken up by Terry ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+22
9.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 22 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
11.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
14.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+18
12.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 18 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
14.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
13.7%
Bryce Carpenter run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
12.6%
Jacqez Hairston run for no gain to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
11.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the GeoSt 8 TEAM fumbled, recovered by CCaro Bryce CarpenterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0093% → 94%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
7.5%
Tra Barnett run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
7.0%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+7
7.2%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+5
6.9%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
6.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:45
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 20 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q3 2:44
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
-17
TD · Q3 7:22
Tra Barnett run for 26 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
-16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com