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ARST

Arkansas State 50 at Troy 43

TROY
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDSAFETYFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:24 · Cody Grace punt for 46 yds, downed at the Troy 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+11.0Home team on offense−1.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:07: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +11.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:50: Jamal Jones 7 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +16.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:52: Jonathan Adams Jr. 32 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +26.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:48: Kaylon Geiger 9 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TROY win probability +21.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. FG · Q4 5:12: Blake Grupe 19 Yd Field Goal — ARST win probability +9.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 8 at ARST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42TROY 4th & 3 at ARST 3, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−2.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:14TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:41ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:31TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:42ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:49TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:30ARST 4th & 9 at TROY 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−5.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:24ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−2.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:25TROY 4th & 5 at ARST 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−9.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:25ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 44, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:17TROY 4th & 5 at ARST 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−12.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:17ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−2.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:40TROY 4th & 17 at TROY 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−5.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:47TROY 4th & 11 at ARST 44, down 8
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.4%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−2.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    32.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:48ARST 4th & 1 at TROY 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−8.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−8.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:12ARST 4th & 2 at TROY 2, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%−4.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−21.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:44TROY 4th & 5 at ARST 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−4.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−7.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:43ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:42ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:33TROY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:14ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:40TROY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:22ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 8:27TROY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:07TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:50ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:52ARST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:48TROY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    52.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
71.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 7 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+1
71.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 1 yd to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+17
71.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
71.6%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
71.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
71.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Tray Eafford, broken up by Antonio FletcherSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
71.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
70.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 92 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:0171% → 69%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 8 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
70.6%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 34 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (William Bradley-King) to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-40
69.3%
Logan Wescott 40 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:0069% → 68%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
69.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 9 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
69.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 3 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
69.2%
DK Billingsley run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
50
+3
69.3%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
69.3%
Khalil McClain pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+37
69.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 37 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
69.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 2 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
69.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete, broken up by Forrest MerrillSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
69.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 5 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
68.1%
Tyler Sumpter 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
70.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 29 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:1931% → 35%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
69.3%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
69.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+41
69.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 41 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
68.7%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 6 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
68.7%
Isaiah Azubuike run for no gain to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
65.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 14 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for no gain to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
66.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
66.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 6 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
66.4%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
64.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
64.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 2 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+10
65.1%
Layne Hatcher run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
64.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
64.7%
DJ Chatman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
65.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
65.2%
Cody Grace punt for 58 yds, downed at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
62.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 11 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
62.6%
DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+3
63.0%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
62.9%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
63.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-10
62.7%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Forrest Merrill for a loss of 10 yards to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
61.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:2039% → 39%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
60.7%
DJ Chatman run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
60.3%
TROY Penalty, personal foul (Melvin Tyus) to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
59.8%
DJ Chatman run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
-10
60.0%
Hatcher, Layne deep pass incomplete to Merritt, Kirk (Dunmore, Jaquez), PENALTY ASU holding (Horst, Jarrett) 10 yards to the ASU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 36
0
60.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 22
OWN 36
+3
61.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 19
OWN 39
0
61.4%
Cody Grace punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kaylon Geiger at the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
59.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 13
OWN 8
0
59.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 13
OWN 8
0
59.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q2 13:49
4TH & 13
OWN 8
0
58.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the Troy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
57.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
57.6%
DJ Chatman run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 46 DJ Chatman fumbled, forced by Carlton Martial, recovered by Troy Carlton Martial , return for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:5661% → 67%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
60.5%
Barker, Kaleb deep pass incomplete to McClain, Khalil, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Page, Nathan) 15 yards to the ASU31, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
61.4%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
61.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+27
67.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 27 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:1835% → 45%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
64.8%
Jones, Jamal rush up middle for no gain to the ASU28 (Hines, John), PENALTY TROY face mask (Hines, John) 15 yards to the ASU43, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
63.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
64.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Will SunderlandSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+17
64.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 17 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
55.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 45 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 1:5557% → 66%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
57.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 10 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
57.9%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 5
50
0
58.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 5
50
+44
58.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 44 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q2 10:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
58.6%
Barker, Kaleb sideline pass incomplete to Todd, Reggie, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Page, Nathan) 4 yards to the ASU2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.4%
Kaylon Geiger run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:5737% → 46%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.6%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.1%
Hatcher, Layne deep pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Pettus, Dell) 15 yards to the ASU40, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
61.1%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+10
61.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
60.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 22 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
60.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 0
+5
60.3%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the Troy 13 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-5
60.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 8
OPP 18
-1
61.0%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Jeremiah Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
54.0%
Blake Grupe 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:2357% → 70%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
57.4%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+15
57.5%
Barker, Kaleb deep pass incomplete to Whittemore, L., PENALTY ASU pass interference (Smith, Jeremy) 15 yards to the ASU41, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
58.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
60.1%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
56.5%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
57.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+18
56.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 18 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
58.0%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
69.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4337% → 36%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
63.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
61.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-3
62.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
64.2%
Cody Grace punt for 46 yds, downed at the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
65.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0039% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
61.4%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Travis Sailo for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+7
62.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 7 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-9
62.3%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Jarvis Hayes for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
64.4%
Cody Grace punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22FG
11 plays · 79 yds · 2:4465% → 70%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+31
65.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 31 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
67.8%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 7
50
+9
68.2%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
68.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 16 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
69.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 8 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
69.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Tray EaffordSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+12
68.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 12 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
69.1%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
69.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Antonio FletcherSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
68.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 10:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
70.0%
Tyler Sumpter 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3532% → 52%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
67.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 16 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
65.6%
Isaiah Azubuike run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+10
67.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-15
65.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Jarrett Horst) to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+10
69.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 10 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+15
68.4%
Cody Grace pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 15 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+34
64.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 34 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
47.8%
Jamal Jones 7 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3354% → 60%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+43
54.3%
DK Billingsley run for 43 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
60.3%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+16
60.3%
Kaleb Barker run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
60.3%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.3%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Antonio FletcherSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
60.4%
Tyler Sumpter 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.6%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
56.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal shift (Jacob Still) to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
57.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Travis SailoSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
58.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
59.4%
Cody Grace punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kaylon Geiger at the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0059% → 54%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.5%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
58.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Nathan PageSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-7
56.0%
Kaleb Barker sacked by William Bradley-King and Terry Hampton for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
53.9%
TEAM puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
27.0%
Jonathan Adams Jr. 32 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 1:5933% → 59%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
32.8%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+26
33.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 26 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
37.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
36.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Timmie Gibson for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
34.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 11
OPP 44
+22
31.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (B.J. Edmonds) to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
39.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Darreon Jackson) to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
39.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke Whittemore, broken up by Nathan PageSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
37.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
59.1%
Kaylon Geiger 9 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29INT
14 plays · 45 yds · 0:0051% → 57%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.9%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
49.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
47.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-10
45.2%
Hatcher, Layne sideline pass incomplete to Bowling, B., PENALTY ASU holding (Horst, Jarrett) 10 yards to the ASU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
48.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+16
49.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 16 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
45.0%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
45.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 8 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
44.9%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+7
47.9%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
43.5%
DJ Chatman run for 2 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
43.0%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Will Sunderland return for no gain to the Troy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 30SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
39.7%
Tajhea Chambers SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:2969% → 84%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
30.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
29.3%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+36
29.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 36 yds to the Troy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
28.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 7Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
28.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
29.7%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
15.6%
Blake Grupe 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 32INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
26.1%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted B.J. Edmonds return for no gain to the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 33INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:0684% → 89%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
16.0%
Jamal Jones run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
15.6%
DJ Chatman run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
14.4%
DJ Chatman run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
14.1%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
10.5%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+29
11.4%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Carlton Martial return for 14 yds to the TROY 39 TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Troy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 34END OF GAME
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:0025% → 13%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
24.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 9 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-5
27.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 12 yds to the Troy 33 TROY Penalty, illegal batting (Kaylon Geiger) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 6
50
+11
25.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 11 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
27.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
27.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for no gain to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+2
26.6%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+20
24.3%
Kaleb Barker run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
30.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-5
29.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 17
OPP 21
+13
12.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 13 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:52
Jonathan Adams Jr. 32 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)
-26.9
TD · Q4 14:48
Kaylon Geiger 9 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+21.5
TD · Q3 7:50
Jamal Jones 7 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)
-16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com