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SIU

Southern Illinois 28 at Arkansas State 41

ARST
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadSIU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreSIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:17 · Griffin Cerra 26 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+32.0Home team on offense+5.0Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:19: Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +4.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:50: Kare Lyles pass complete to Sam Bonansinga for 39 yds for a TD, (Griffin Cerra KICK) — SIU win probability +4.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:16: Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 89 yds for a TD SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, HL ( Yards) declined, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:39: Kare Lyles run for 15 yds for a TD, (Griffin Cerra KICK) — SIU win probability +8.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:55: Blake Grupe 43 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +4.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:58ARST 4th & 21 at ARST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30SIU 4th & 2 at SIU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:58ARST 4th & 10 at SIU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:17SIU 4th & 9 at ARST 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:17ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:50ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:36SIU 4th & 1 at ARST 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−2.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:36SIU 4th & 1 at ARST 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−1.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:55ARST 4th & 20 at SIU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:47SIU 4th & 12 at SIU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:53ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:19SIU 4th & 5 at ARST 5, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:00ARST 4th & 1 at SIU 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−1.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:33ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:07SIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:47ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:26SIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:23ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:50SIU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:16ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:39SIU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2793% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
93.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 3 yds to the SoIll 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+37
93.2%
Omar Bayless pass complete to Logan Bonner for 37 yds to the SoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
93.2%
Logan Bonner sacked by Luke Giegling for a loss of 4 yards to the SoIll 14Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
93.0%
Ryan Graham run for 14 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:227% → 8%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+62
92.9%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Avante Cox for 62 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.9%
Javon Williams Jr. run for no gain to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.3%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Cerra KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.5%
Omar Bayless pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Tory LewisSimilar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-6
92.5%
Logan Bonner run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 33 Logan Bonner fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Logan BonnerSimilar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 18
OWN 33
-3
92.4%
Logan Bonner sacked by Makel Calhoun for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 21
OWN 30
0
92.4%
Cody Grace punt for 33 yds, downed at the SoIll 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
92.0%
Kare Lyles pass complete to D.J. Davis for 5 yds to the SoIll 42Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
91.9%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoIll 45Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
91.9%
Javon Williams Jr. run for no gain to the SoIll 45Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
92.0%
Javon Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Anthony KnightonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:3792% → 92%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
91.7%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the SoIll 43Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+43
92.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 43 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:168% → 12%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
92.1%
D.J. Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoIll 18Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
92.1%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Avante Cox for 5 yds to the SoIll 23Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
92.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (William Bradley-King) to the SoIll 28Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+15
92.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (William Bradley-King) to the SoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
92.0%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Landon Lenoir for 11 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
91.9%
Kare Lyles sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 5 yards to the SoIll 49 Kare Lyles fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-6
92.0%
Kare Lyles sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 6 yards to the SoIll 43Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 21
OWN 43
+15
92.1%
Lyles, Kare sacked for loss of 5 yards to the SIU38 (Bradley-King, W), PENALTY ASU face mask (Bradley-King, W) 15 yards to the ASU42, 1ST DOWN SIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
91.9%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+10
91.9%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
91.7%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
88.5%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Avante Cox for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Cerra KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 3:1990% → 89%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
89.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
89.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+3
89.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+13
89.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 13 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
89.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 13 yds to the SoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
90.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete, broken up by Malik HaynesSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+28
89.7%
Logan Bonner run for 28 yds to the SoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
89.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for no gain to the SoIll 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
89.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Tre' StrongSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
89.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon Bowling, broken up by Qua BrownSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
88.8%
Blake Grupe 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.7%
Javon Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Avante CoxSimilar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-3
88.8%
Avante Cox run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoIll 30 Avante Cox fumbled, recovered by ArkSt William Bradley-KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:1390% → 91%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
89.5%
Logan Bonner sacked by Anthony Knighton for a loss of 8 yards to the SoIll 38Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+14
89.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 14 yds to the SoIll 24Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+4
89.2%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the SoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
89.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 10 yds to the SoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
91.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:0610% → 10%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.5%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to Avante CoxSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
90.6%
Williams Jr., J pass incomplete to Cox, Avante, PENALTY ASU offside defense (Bradley-King, W) 5 yards to the SIU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+7
90.3%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
90.2%
Javon Williams Jr. pass complete to D.J. Davis for 9 yds to the SoIll 48Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+46
89.9%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 46 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
89.6%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
89.6%
Javon Williams Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.1%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to D.J. DavisSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
90.5%
Griffin Cerra 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
90.4%
Logan Bonner sacked by Jordan Berner for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+11
90.3%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-7
90.2%
Logan Bonner sacked by Luke Giegling for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+9
89.8%
Cody Grace punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoIll 38 , Javon Williams Jr. returns for 9 yds to the SoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 12INT
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:5310% → 11%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
90.2%
D.J. Davis run for 11 yds to the SoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
89.9%
D.J. Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoIll 46Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+8
90.4%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Landon Lenoir for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+6
89.9%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Sam Bonansinga for 6 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
89.8%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to Javon Williams Jr., broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
89.8%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Landon Lenoir for 14 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
89.4%
D.J. Davis run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+1
89.4%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+12
89.7%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
89.4%
Javon Williams Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
88.0%
Kare Lyles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+23
88.8%
Kare Lyles pass intercepted Tajhea Chambers return for 16 yds to the ArkSt 0 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (Kailon Davis) to the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 0:4890% → 95%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
89.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 12 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
90.0%
SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, roughing passer (Malik Haynes) to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
90.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
90.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
50
+14
90.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 14 yds to the SoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
90.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 11 yds to the SoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
94.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
93.0%
D.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the SoIll 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:106% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.9%
D.J. Davis run for 9 yds to the SoIll 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
93.3%
D.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the SoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.6%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to Sam BonansingaSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.8%
D.J. Davis run for 5 yds to the SoIll 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
93.7%
Kare Lyles run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
93.2%
Kare Lyles pass complete to D.J. Davis for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
93.2%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Avante Cox for 6 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
93.0%
Romeir Elliott run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
88.3%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Sam Bonansinga for 39 yds for a TD, (Griffin Cerra KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.7%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
89.7%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
89.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Tre' StrongSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
88.8%
Cody Grace punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoIll 28 , Javon Williams Jr. returns for 14 yds to the SoIll 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 65 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
89.1%
D.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the SoIll 30Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+17
89.1%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Avante Cox for 17 yds to the SoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
88.4%
Kare Lyles pass complete to D.J. Davis for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
87.9%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to Landon LenoirSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+3
88.3%
D.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+14
88.9%
D.J. Davis run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
87.5%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Landon Lenoir for 14 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
87.3%
Romeir Elliott run for no gain to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
87.3%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to Avante Cox, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+9
88.3%
Kare Lyles run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 1
OPP 7
0
88.6%
Javon Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Landon Lenoir, broken up by Antonio FletcherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
2 plays · 93 yds · 0:4190% → 96%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
89.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+89
95.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 89 yds for a TD SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, HL ( Yards) declined, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:315% → 14%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
95.4%
Romeir Elliott run for 9 yds to the SoIll 24Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+12
95.0%
Romeir Elliott run for 12 yds to the SoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
95.0%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 16 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
94.9%
Romeir Elliott run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
94.6%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to Avante CoxSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
95.0%
Lyles, Kare pass incomplete to Cox, Avante (Smith, Jeremy), PENALTY ASU offside defense (Bradley-King, W) 5 yards to the ASU37, 1ST DOWN SIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
94.9%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Landon Lenoir for 22 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
94.3%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to Nigel KilbySimilar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
85.9%
Kare Lyles run for 15 yds for a TD, (Griffin Cerra KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 1:4090% → 95%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.9%
DJ Chatman run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+41
89.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 41 yds to the SoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+17
90.8%
DJ Chatman run for 17 yds to the SoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
90.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
90.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Jonathan ThompsonSimilar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-10
90.8%
Bonner, Logan pass complete to Bayless, Omar for 16 yards to the SIU0, clock 00:05, PENALTY ASU HL (Dutton, Justin) 10 yards to the SIU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 20
OPP 26
0
90.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Reed Tyler, broken up by Cody CriderSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+43
94.6%
Blake Grupe 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.9%
Romeir Elliott run for no gain to the SoIll 26Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
93.2%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to Landon Lenoir, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-5
93.3%
SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Calvin Francis Jr.) to the SoIll 21Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 15
OWN 21
-10
93.4%
Lyles, Kare pass complete to Lenoir, Landon for 13 yards to the SIU34 (Smith, Jeremy), PENALTY SIU HL (Marnin, Jacob) 10 yards to the SIU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 25
OWN 11
+13
93.4%
Romeir Elliott run for 13 yds to the SoIll 24Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+51
93.5%
Jack Colquhoun punt for 51 yds , Brandon Bowling returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
95.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
95.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+12
94.8%
Cody Grace punt for 56 yds , Javon Williams Jr. returns for 12 yds to the SoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 63 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
93.1%
Romeir Elliott run for 2 yds to the SoIll 34Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
93.0%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoIll 37Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+18
93.0%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
92.6%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Javon Williams Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
92.6%
Romeir Elliott run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
92.5%
Javon Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
92.0%
Kare Lyles run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+25
92.0%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Avante Cox for 25 yds to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
91.7%
Romeir Elliott run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
91.7%
Kare Lyles pass complete to Avante Cox for 1 yd to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
92.4%
Romeir Elliott run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.8%
Kare Lyles pass incomplete to Romeir ElliottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24END OF GAME
15 plays · 77 yds · 2:0496% → 98%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+16
96.2%
Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Adams, Jonathan, PENALTY SIU roughing passer (Stallworth, Kyo) 16 yards to the ASU21, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+13
96.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 13 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
96.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.8%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 5 yds to the SoIll 49Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
97.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 2 yds to the SoIll 47Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
97.7%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 2 yds to the SoIll 45Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+7
97.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 7 yds to the SoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
97.8%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 4 yds to the SoIll 34Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+7
97.9%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 7 yds to the SoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
97.9%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 6 yds to the SoIll 21Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
97.9%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 3 yds to the SoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:39
Kare Lyles run for 15 yds for a TD, (Griffin Cerra KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 5:16
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 89 yds for a TD SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, HL ( Yards) declined, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q3 11:50
Kare Lyles pass complete to Sam Bonansinga for 39 yds for a TD, (Griffin Cerra KICK)
-4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com