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SMU

SMU 37 at Arkansas State 30

ARST
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGSAFETYTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:22 · Cody Grace punt for 55 yds, downed at the SMU 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense+1.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:36: Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +17.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:22: Damon Foncham kickoff for 63 yds , CJ Sanders return for 98 yds for a TD — SMU win probability +15.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:44: Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Page pass to Kylen Granson for Two-Point Conversion) — SMU win probability +26.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:11: Xavier Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +18.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:59: Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 34 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +19.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:45SMU 4th & 9 at ARST 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:50SMU 4th & 5 at ARST 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 20 at ARST 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:01ARST 4th & 9 at SMU 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:53SMU 4th & 9 at ARST 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:46ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:29SMU 4th & 6 at ARST 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−7.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:33SMU 4th & 2 at ARST 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−11.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:22ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−3.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:42SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−2.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:20SMU 4th & 1 at ARST 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−4.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−7.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 10 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:11ARST 4th & 6 at SMU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−1.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:18SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:27ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:07ARST 4th & 4 at SMU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−10.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−8.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:08ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:08SMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:41ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:36ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:22SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:44SMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:11SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:59ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
49.9%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+8
49.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 8 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
49.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+6
49.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
49.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+51
49.9%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Darreon Jackson return for 51 yds to the SMU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
51.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) SMU Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 4:1749% → 48%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
51.0%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
50.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+13
51.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 13 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
50.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+1
50.8%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+4
50.8%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
50.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+6
50.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
50.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 1 yd to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
50.7%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+15
50.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 15 yds Reggie Roberson Jr. fumbled, forced by Antonio Fletcher, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
50.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
50.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
50.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
51.7%
Kevin Robledo 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
51.5%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
51.5%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+8
51.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
51.6%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
51.5%
Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Merritt, Kirk (DENBOW, Trevor), PENALTY SMU targeting (DENBOW, Trevor) 15 yards to the ASU37, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
51.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 6 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
52.2%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-5
51.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Omar Bayless) to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-2
51.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+1
51.2%
Cody Grace punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 33 , James Proche returns for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 2:4147% → 47%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
53.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 6 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+7
52.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
52.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+4
52.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+28
52.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 28 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
51.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
51.7%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
52.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
52.9%
Kevin Robledo 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 1:5054% → 53%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
53.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
53.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
54.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
54.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
54.5%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
54.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
50
0
54.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
50
-10
54.7%
Bonner, Logan pass complete to Bowling, B. for 10 yards to the SMU40 (CLEMONS, Rodney), PENALTY ASU HL (Ogbebor, Bubba) 10 yards to the ASU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 40
0
54.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 40
0
53.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
53.1%
Cody Grace punt for 48 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7SF
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:3646% → 43%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
54.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-5
54.5%
BUECHELE, Shane pass complete to GAILLIARD, M. for 13 yards to the SMU25 (Fletcher, A.;Smith, Jeremy), PENALTY SMU ineligible downfield on pass (GRANSON, Kylen) 5 yards to the SMU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 15
OWN 7
0
56.7%
Shane Buechele sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETY Shane Buechele fumbled, , return for 0 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
50
+4
58.7%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
58.7%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-2
58.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-5
57.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
56.6%
Cody Grace punt for 41 yds, downed at the SMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 92 yds · 5:0343% → 54%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
57.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 10 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
56.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 4
OWN 24
-4
56.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+15
57.8%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to PROCHE, James (Medley, Demari), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Medley, Demari) 15 yards to the SMU35, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr., broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
56.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+23
55.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 23 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
54.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
54.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 8 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+4
54.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
54.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+11
54.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 11 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
54.0%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
46.0%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0051% → 53%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
50.7%
Marcel Murray run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
52.9%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
50
+2
53.4%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted Terrance Newman return for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:2953% → 54%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
46.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+7
46.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
45.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
45.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
45.8%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
47.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
46.5%
Kevin Robledo 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
47.1%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-3
47.7%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
45.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Brandon StephensSimilar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 8
OWN 26
-5
45.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
45.1%
Cody Grace punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:5557% → 65%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
43.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 9 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
42.4%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
42.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 8 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+4
41.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
41.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Kevin ThurmonSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
42.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 18 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
38.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
38.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
40.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
34.6%
Kevin Robledo 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1841% → 40%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
40.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 16 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
42.3%
Logan Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 43 Logan Bonner fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Logan BonnerSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
41.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 11
OPP 43
-8
39.6%
Logan Bonner sacked by Richard McBryde for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:1140% → 59%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
39.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Brandon StephensSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
39.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+15
38.2%
Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar (JOHNSON, A.), PENALTY SMU pass interference (JOHNSON, A.) 15 yards to the ASU46, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
41.7%
Marcel Murray run for 12 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
42.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 21 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
44.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
59.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 64 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
50.1%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+8
48.6%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
48.0%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 6
50
+46
47.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 46 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
46.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
46.4%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
47.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 98 yds · 3:0354% → 76%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
54.1%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+12
54.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 12 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
54.3%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+10
55.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
55.1%
SMU Penalty, offside defense (Terrance Newman) to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 5
OWN 39
+21
57.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 21 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
58.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 11 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
76.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-15
59.6%
Bonner, Logan pass complete to Bowling, B. for 8 yards to the ASU36, out-of-bounds (JOHNSON, A.), PENALTY ASU personal foul (Bayless, Omar) 15 yards to the ASU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+6
59.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 6 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+5
57.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
56.8%
Cody Grace punt for 55 yds, downed at the SMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3841% → 38%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
59.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
59.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
60.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+9
62.3%
Luke Hogan punt for 39 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 9 yds to the SMU 49 B.J. Edmonds fumbled, forced by Judah Bell, recovered by SMU Will JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:3645% → 73%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
55.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
54.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
55.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
55.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
57.3%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
53.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+29
53.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 29 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, targeting (Antonio Fletcher) to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.9%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Page pass to Kylen Granson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:3433% → 32%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
33.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
50
-5
37.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
34.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
33.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+5
31.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Marcel Murray for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
50
0
32.4%
Cody Grace punt for 39 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:5572% → 95%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
27.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
28.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+51
28.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 51 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
23.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+10
24.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 10 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+18
24.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
23.2%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 10 SMU Penalty, HL (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 16
OPP 20
+7
23.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+8
23.2%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+3
23.9%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.2%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:129% → 31%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.8%
Logan Bonner run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
9.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Marcel MurraySimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
9.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 11 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
9.9%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+11
9.5%
Logan Bonner run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
50
-1
10.1%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
9.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+5
9.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+12
10.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 12 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
11.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
30.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 34 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:4083% → 85%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
17.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
16.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
14.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
12.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+1
12.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+2
13.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
14.7%
Shane Buechele punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26FUMBLE
15 plays · 55 yds · 2:2018% → 13%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
17.9%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
17.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
16.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+20
15.4%
Logan Bonner run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
20.0%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
22.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
23.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
22.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
24.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 11 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
27.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 2 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+4
20.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
15.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 4
OPP 19
-13
13.0%
Logan Bonner sacked by Delontae Scott for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 29 Logan Bonner fumbled, recovered by SMU Nelson Paul , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:44
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Page pass to Kylen Granson for Two-Point Conversion)
-26.7
TD · Q4 5:59
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 34 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+19
TD · Q4 9:11
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)
-18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com