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ARST

Arkansas State 43 at UNLV 17

UNLV
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.3UNLV 53.7%Daniel Gutierrez 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q2 13:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:42 · Daniel Gutierrez 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Home team on offense−2.1Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.3Pregame prior+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:45: Logan Bonner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +10.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:49: Ryan Graham run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe PAT BLOCKED) — ARST win probability +14.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:30: Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 37 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +9.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:53: Charles Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — UNLV win probability +14.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:53: Blake Grupe 38 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +4.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 9 of 11ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:45UNLV 4th & 13 at UNLV 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:21ARST 4th & 10 at UNLV 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:17UNLV 4th & 13 at UNLV 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:57ARST 4th & 1 at UNLV 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:40ARST 4th & 9 at UNLV 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:18UNLV 4th & 1 at ARST 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.2%−0.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:42UNLV 4th & 8 at ARST 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:42ARST 4th & 4 at UNLV 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:36UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:45UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:49UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:31ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 20, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:26UNLV 4th & 2 at midfield, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:32ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 47, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:53ARST 4th & 10 at UNLV 21, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−7.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:53UNLV 4th & 17 at UNLV 22, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:18ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 21, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 15 at ARST 30, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:58UNLV 4th & 16 at UNLV 29, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:33ARST 4th & 7 at UNLV 14, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:45ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:45ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:49ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:30ARST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:53UNLV Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:58ARST Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:53UNLV Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1559% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.7%
Armani Rogers run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
58.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+35
58.3%
Armani Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Jeremy Smith return for 35 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.4%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
58.4%
Armani Rogers sacked by Kevin Thurmon and Forrest Merrill for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
58.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal GrimesSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+12
58.3%
Hayes Hicken punt for 44 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 12 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
57.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+5
57.6%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
57.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
57.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
57.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
57.8%
Cody Grace punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
57.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
57.5%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
57.5%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
57.6%
Armani Rogers sacked by Darreon Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 18
OWN 23
+2
57.5%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+3
57.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Charles Williams for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+21
57.2%
Hayes Hicken punt for 27 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 21 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:1745% → 46%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
55.3%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
55.3%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
55.4%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+4
55.7%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
55.3%
Marcel Murray run for 11 yds to the UNLV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
55.3%
Logan Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 11Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
55.3%
Logan Bonner run for 2 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.5%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
54.0%
Blake Grupe 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6FG
18 plays · 64 yds · 5:5255% → 54%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
54.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal GrimesSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+14
54.4%
Charles Williams run for 14 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
54.9%
Armani Rogers run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
55.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+10
55.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
55.9%
Darran Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+9
55.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Randal Grimes for 9 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
55.5%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
53.7%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr.Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
53.6%
Charles Williams run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
53.0%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
52.5%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
53.2%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+1
53.2%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
52.4%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal GrimesSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
53.7%
Daniel Gutierrez 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Isaiah Azubuike run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+43
52.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 43 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
50.6%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
50.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 8 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
50.8%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 3 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
50.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for no gain to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
50.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+6
51.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 4
OPP 14
0
51.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
51.4%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr.Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
51.4%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal Grimes, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
50.7%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Charles WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
50.4%
Hayes Hicken punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:2851% → 61%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
48.9%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+9
48.8%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
48.8%
Marcel Murray run for 14 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.9%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.7%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0041% → 43%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
41.3%
Tyleek Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+15
41.0%
Charles Williams run for 15 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
42.7%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
42.9%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
42.7%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Tyleek CollinsSimilar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
42.5%
Hayes Hicken punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:4462% → 78%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
38.2%
Ryan Graham run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
38.1%
Ryan Graham run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
37.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 7 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+10
37.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 10 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
36.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 14 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
36.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 5 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
36.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+7
37.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
36.8%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+6
36.8%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
22.4%
Ryan Graham run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
27.5%
Armani Rogers sacked by Forrest Merrill for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
26.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 5 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
27.4%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Steve Jenkins UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
27.3%
Hayes Hicken punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5680% → 81%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
19.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Marcel Murray for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+1
20.1%
DJ Chatman run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+4
18.9%
DJ Chatman run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+10
18.7%
Cody Grace punt for 51 yds , Jacob Gasser returns for 10 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
23.1%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal GrimesSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
22.4%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-5
21.9%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+8
21.5%
Charles Williams run for 8 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3081% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
19.3%
Ryan Graham run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
19.2%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
18.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
18.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+15
19.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 15 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
18.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
18.2%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+37
8.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 37 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
9.8%
UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+4
9.7%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+11
9.4%
Charles Williams run for 11 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
10.2%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
9.6%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+1
10.0%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 2
50
+1
9.9%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
6.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
6.4%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-5
6.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
6.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
7.2%
Cody Grace punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jacob Gasser at the UNLV 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:297% → 22%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+78
6.8%
Charles Williams run for 78 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.7%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:0088% → 94%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.7%
Ryan Graham run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+37
10.5%
Ryan Graham run for 37 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
9.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 12 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
9.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
9.8%
DJ Chatman run for no gain to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
10.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Jericho FlowersSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
6.0%
Blake Grupe 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
7.6%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-8
7.6%
Armani Rogers sacked by Forrest Merrill and William Bradley-King for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 17
OWN 22
0
7.4%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 17
OWN 22
+14
7.4%
Hayes Hicken punt for 71 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 14 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
4.9%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
5.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+1
4.9%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 5
OWN 26
-5
5.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Brandon Bowling) to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
5.2%
Cody Grace punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jacob Gasser at the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:406% → 5%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
5.9%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+10
5.8%
Armani Rogers run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+7
6.4%
Charles Williams run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
6.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
6.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Antonio Fletcher) to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
6.8%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
6.8%
Darran Williams run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-8
5.3%
Armani Rogers sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 30
0
4.7%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal GrimesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:1997% → 99%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
3.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
3.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
3.1%
Isaiah Azubuike run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+71
0.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 71 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.8%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
0.8%
WILLIAMS, D. rush for 12 yards to the UNLV47 (Fletcher, A.), PENALTY UNLV holding (MORGAN, Ashton) 10 yards to the UNLV25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+12
0.8%
Darran Williams run for 12 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
0.8%
Darran Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-8
0.8%
Armani Rogers sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
0.7%
Hayes Hicken punt for 43 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 6:33100% → 100%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
0.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
0.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+10
0.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
0.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+16
0.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 16 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for no gain to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
0.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 4 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
0.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Bubba Ogbebor for 7 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
0.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 6 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+8
0.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 8 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
0.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kirk Merritt for no gain to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
0.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 3 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
0.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
0.2%
Blake Grupe 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Patrick Ballard for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
0.1%
Darran Williams run for 5 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
0.1%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Randal Grimes for 9 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+56
0.2%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Randal Grimes for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
0.2%
DJ Chatman run for 13 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.2%
DJ Chatman run for 1 yd to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
0.2%
DJ Chatman run for 5 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:53
Charles Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+14.9
TD · Q2 2:49
Ryan Graham run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe PAT BLOCKED)
-14.4
TD · Q2 8:45
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com