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ARMY

Army 21 at Georgia State 28

GAST
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:41 · Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 16 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+12.1Pregame prior−1.0Garbage-time factor+1.9Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:15: Sandon McCoy run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +14.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:17: Jalen Moy run for 16 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +12.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:48: Tra Barnett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright PAT MISSED) — GAST win probability +11.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 7:41: Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 8 yds for a TD, (Dan Ellington pass to Roger Carter for Two-Point Conversion) — GAST win probability +33.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:46: Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 30 — GAST win probability +11.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00GAST 4th & 2 at ARMY 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:44ARMY 4th & 8 at GAST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:18ARMY 4th & 2 at GAST 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−3.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:10ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.9%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.7%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.9%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:09GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.1%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:41ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 38, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:41ARMY 4th & 2 at GAST 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−3.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:00ARMY 4th & 4 at GAST 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−5.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:47GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:18ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:41GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:15ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:17ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:48GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:41GAST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    73.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.7%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
41.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 20 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
41.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 6 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
41.7%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the Army 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+2
41.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 2 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-1
41.7%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
42.1%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
42.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+4
42.1%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
42.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard line Kelvin Hopkins Jr. fumbled, , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 15
50
+3
42.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 3 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+4
42.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
42.3%
Zach Potter pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:2244% → 47%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
44.0%
Dan Ellington run for 16 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
44.2%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
44.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 6 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
44.4%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to Ifedi, Jonathan, PENALTY ARMY offside defense (Bonsu, Kwabena) 5 yards to the ARMY24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 5
OPP 24
+24
47.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 24 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2954% → 56%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
46.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 12 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+38
46.1%
Connor Slomka run for 38 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
45.3%
Slomka, Connor rush for 4 yards to the GSU19 (StephensMcQueen), PENALTY GSU offside defense (Curney, Ed) 5 yards to the GSU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+4
45.3%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+5
45.3%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
45.3%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+6
45.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
45.3%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
45.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.4%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5FUMBLE
12 plays · 72 yds · 2:1846% → 49%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.0%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
45.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 13 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
47.0%
Tra Barnett run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
50
+3
47.4%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+30
47.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 30 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
48.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by Jabari MooreSimilar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
48.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 15 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.2%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the Army 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Seth PaigeSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
48.5%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 3 Dan Ellington fumbled, recovered by Army Cole ChristiansenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6FUMBLE
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:0054% → 56%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
46.4%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+3
46.4%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+4
46.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Army 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
46.0%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
45.9%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+2
46.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+2
46.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.8%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
45.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 18 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
44.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 46 Jakobi Buchanan fumbled, forced by Victor Heyward, recovered by GeoSt Remy LazarusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:0852% → 61%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
51.6%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to Pinckney, Sam, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Bourdeau, J.) 15 yards to the ARMY31, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
52.3%
Dan Ellington run for 7 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+12
52.3%
Tra Barnett run for 12 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
60.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 12 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2642% → 59%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
57.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 17 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
56.3%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+10
55.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
55.5%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+10
55.3%
Sandon McCoy run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
54.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+3
55.6%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
57.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
55.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+4
55.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
40.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9END OF HALF
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
50.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 9 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Devin GentrySimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
50.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+9
49.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 9 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:4353% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
45.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
45.7%
Connor Slomka run for no gain to the Army 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
47.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
45.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the Army 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
45.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 7 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
44.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
43.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+32
43.5%
Connor Slomka run for 32 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
42.4%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+1
42.4%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
29.5%
Jalen Moy run for 16 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:2934% → 51%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.6%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
35.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 5 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
34.5%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
36.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
34.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 9 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
36.8%
Tra Barnett run for 9 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+9
37.8%
Tra Barnett run for 9 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
39.3%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
39.3%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the Army 29Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+10
37.5%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
39.3%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the Army 19Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
39.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Jaylon McClintonSimilar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+12
37.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 12 yds to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
39.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
39.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 6 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.1%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:4854% → 55%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
45.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
46.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
45.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
43.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
41.9%
Brandon Walters run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
42.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon WaltersSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
45.4%
Zach Harding punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 5:2846% → 88%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
46.3%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-2
46.7%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+7
44.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 7 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+4
44.2%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+29
47.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 29 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
52.3%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
54.1%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
51.7%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
54.1%
Tra Barnett run for 13 yds to the Army 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
54.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 6 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
87.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 8 yds for a TD, (Dan Ellington pass to Roger Carter for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14INT
17 plays · 47 yds · 6:4120% → 16%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.5%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
79.5%
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
79.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
79.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Artice Hobbs IV, broken up by Remy LazarusSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
79.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
79.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden Harrison, broken up by Quavian WhiteSimilar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+16
82.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 16 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
76.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
76.1%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+2
76.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+4
78.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
74.2%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+4
74.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 4 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
76.0%
Malik Hancock run for no gain to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+27
83.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass intercepted Quavian White return for 27 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15END OF GAME
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:1395% → 97%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
94.9%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+19
95.9%
Tra Barnett run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:41
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 8 yds for a TD, (Dan Ellington pass to Roger Carter for Two-Point Conversion)
+33.7
TD · Q2 1:15
Sandon McCoy run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q3 8:17
Jalen Moy run for 16 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com