2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:25 · Bailey Cate punt for 48 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 3 yds to the FlaIn 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:04: Robert Washington run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +1.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:54: Napoleon Maxwell run for 13 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +11.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:24: Nick Rice 22 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +9.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:17: James Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD (Tony Gaiter IV pass for Two-Point Conversion) — FIU win probability +9.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:54: Lala Davis run for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +14.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 11:54ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%average punt
- Q1 5:50FIU 4th & 4 at ODU 4, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snapGo for it82.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call82.8%−0.193% to makePunt81.6%−1.2average punt
- Q1 5:50ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 31, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it16.2%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.4%average punt
- Q2 14:48FIU 4th & 11 at ODU 14, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.2%−0.623% to convertField goalTheir call80.8%84% to makePunt78.3%−2.4average punt
- Q2 12:19FIU 4th & 12 at ODU 25, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snapGo for it80.0%−0.422% to convertField goalTheir call80.3%66% to makePunt78.5%−1.9average punt
- Q2 9:27ODU 4th & 6 at FIU 43, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.4%40% to convertField goal18.8%−0.628% to makePunt19.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:32ODU 4th & 3 at FIU 17, down 2Close callKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snapGo for it20.2%51% to convertField goalTheir call19.8%−0.480% to makePunt16.3%−3.9average punt
- Q2 5:25FIU 4th & 11 at ODU 33, up 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snapGo for it79.4%−0.427% to convertField goalTheir call79.8%49% to makePunt79.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 5:25ODU 4th & 12 at ODU 31, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snapGo for it17.8%−1.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.3%average punt
- Q2 3:13FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 28, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snapGo for it78.0%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.4%average punt
- Q2 1:24ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 34, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snapGo for it20.3%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q3 10:47FIU 4th & 6 at ODU 15, up 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snapGo for it76.4%−0.537% to convertField goalTheir call76.9%83% to makePunt70.0%−6.8average punt
- Q3 10:47ODU 4th & 9 at FIU 41, down 2Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it24.0%32% to convertField goal23.3%−0.732% to makePuntTheir call23.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:54ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 47, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it13.5%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.9%average punt
- Q3 4:37FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 9, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snapGo for it84.1%−1.627% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.7%average punt
- Q3 2:10ODU 4th & 23 at FIU 37, down 9Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it11.0%−2.37% to convertField goal13.3%40% to makePuntTheir call12.9%−0.3average punt
- Q4 15:00FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 8, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snapGo for it85.0%−1.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%average punt
- Q4 10:24ODU 4th & 5 at FIU 5, down 9Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snapGo for it13.0%33% to convertField goalTheir call11.8%−1.292% to makePunt2.4%−10.6average punt
- Q4 6:17ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 4:43FIU 4th & 4 at ODU 37, up 14Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it97.0%48% to convertField goal96.5%−0.540% to makePuntTheir call96.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 2:03FIU 4th & 6 at ODU 44, up 7Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.8%40% to convertField goal92.9%−0.827% to makePuntTheir call93.3%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ODU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:04ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.3%97% to makeGo for two15.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:54FIU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:17FIU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick94.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call94.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:54ODU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.3%97% to makeGo for two5.8%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 3:0610% → 11%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
90.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 2 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
90.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Donta Anthony Jr. for 7 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
90.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kesean Strong for 5 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+3
89.5%
Bailey Cate punt for 43 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 3 yds to the FlaIn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2KICKOFF8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
89.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 11 yds to the FlaIn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
89.5%
James Morgan pass complete to D'Vonte Price for 9 yds to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
89.6%
James Morgan sacked by Tobias Moss for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
89.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Shemar Thornton, broken up by Geronda HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3TD2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4FG8 plays · 74 yds · 3:1488% → 87%
Q1 9:04
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+25
87.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 10 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, roughing passer (Isaiah Spencer) to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Aaron Moore for 6 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Isaiah Spencer, broken up by Olin Cushion IIISimilar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
87.1%
Bailey Cate punt for 39 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for no gain to the FlaIn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6FG11 plays · 56 yds · 5:0487% → 85%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
86.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 8 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+22
86.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 22 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
87.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 15 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+12
87.1%
MORGAN,J pass intercepted by RICHARDSON, J. at the ODU20, RICHARDSON, J. return to the FIU43 (GAITER,T), PENALTY ODU face mask (SCOTT, Robert) 12 yards to the ODU13, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+6
87.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 6 yds to the ODU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
FIUDrive 8FG4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3586% → 85%
Q2 13:54
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-5
85.6%
James Morgan sacked by Marcus Haynes for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9MISSED FG12 plays · 58 yds · 4:4715% → 17%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.2%
SMARTT, Stone pass incomplete to BROWN, Darrell, PENALTY FIU roughing passer (OLIVER,K) 15 yards to the ODU40, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
84.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Darius Savedge for 13 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-10
84.3%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Sage Lewis for a loss of 10 yards to the ODU 43Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+14
85.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kesean Strong for 14 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+19
84.1%
Hayden Wolff run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal use of hands (Richard Dames) to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
83.5%
Nick Rice 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Daniel Jackson N/A return for 1 yd to the FlaIn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10MISSED FG6 plays · 52 yds · 2:0785% → 84%
Q2 7:32
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+46
84.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 46 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
83.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Darrell Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 27Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 11
OWN 32
-1
83.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Darrell Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+3
84.4%
Bailey Cate punt for 48 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 3 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 3:13
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
82.4%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Darrell Brown at the ODU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4818% → 18%
Q2 2:12
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
81.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kesean Strong for 5 yds to the ODU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14END OF HALF6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
81.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 7 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+5
81.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 5 yds to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
81.3%
James Morgan sacked by Cory Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaIn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15MISSED FG11 plays · 60 yds · 4:1381% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 5 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+12
82.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 12 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+3
83.2%
James Morgan pass complete to D'Vonte Price for 3 yds to the ODU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
FIUDrive 17TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4077% → 89%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+67
77.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 54 yds to the FLAINTL 26 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Steven Williams for 6 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
87.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Steven Williams for 13 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
87.7%
Bailey Cate punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Maurice Alexander at the FlaIn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
86.6%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (Shacquille Williams) to the FlaIn 5Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+3
85.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 3 yds to the FlaIn 9Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
85.3%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaIn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -13 yds · 1:1516% → 13%
FIUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0087% → 86%
ODUDrive 22FG10 plays · 45 yds · 4:3016% → 25%
Q4 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+9
85.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Donta Anthony Jr. for 9 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
84.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Cornell Hendrick Jr. for 4 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
82.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds to the FlaIn 20 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Chris Whittaker) to the FlaIn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23TD11 plays · 65 yds · 4:0787% → 98%
Q4 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+18
87.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 18 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
88.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Tony Gaiter IV, broken up by Keion WhiteSimilar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
88.3%
James Morgan pass complete to D'Vonte Price for 5 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+8
87.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 8 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
88.7%
D'Vonte Price run for 6 yds to the ODU 8 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (4 Yards) to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
88.7%
James Morgan pass complete to D'Vonte Price for 1 yd to the ODU 3Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
James Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD (Tony Gaiter IV pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24DOWNS6 plays · 18 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Darrell Brown for 13 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+14
94.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Aaron Moore for 14 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 19
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kesean Strong, broken up by Jamal GatesSimilar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
94.2%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Aaron Moore, broken up by Stantley Thomas-Oliver IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26TD4 plays · 76 yds · 0:454% → 20%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
94.8%
WOLFF, Hayden pass incomplete to FITZGERALD, N., PENALTY FIU pass interference (BROWN,I) 15 yards to the FIU30, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
94.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Nigel Fitzgerald for 20 yds to the FlaIn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5194% → 94%
Q4 2:03
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
93.9%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Darrell Brown at the ODU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 28INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:54
Lala Davis run for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q3 6:54
Napoleon Maxwell run for 13 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
+11.9
FG · Q4 10:24
Nick Rice 22 yd FG GOOD
-9.3