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UNC

North Carolina 41 at NC State 10

NCSU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:37 · Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior−15.8Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:25: Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 39 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +14.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:07: Javonte Williams run for 26 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +15.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:00: Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +11.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:08: Javonte Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +9.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:20: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 52 yds for a TD NC STATE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 11 at NCSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:59NCSU 4th & 7 at UNC 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:52UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:39NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:55UNC 4th & 3 at NCSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−1.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:09UNC 4th & 3 at NCSU 3, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:09NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:13UNC 4th & 10 at NCSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−5.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:13NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:45NCSU 4th & 1 at UNC 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−2.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−2.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:37UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:07NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 13 at UNC 13, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 1:25NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:07UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:00UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:08UNC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:20UNC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:34UNC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
20.8%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+1
20.8%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 21
-5
20.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+45
20.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 45 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
20.8%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+6
20.8%
Antonio Williams run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-3
20.8%
Antonio Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 40 Antonio Williams fumbled, forced by Isaiah Moore, recovered by NCaro Sam HowellSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
20.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 33 yds, downed at the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:0623% → 26%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
22.7%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 7Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+8
22.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+4
22.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
22.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 16 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
22.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 8 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+41
23.1%
Jordan Houston run for 41 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
23.2%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 13
OPP 19
-2
23.2%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+8
22.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 8 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
26.4%
Christopher Dunn 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
25.9%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
25.8%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
26.0%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
26.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
26.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+4
26.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+17
26.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 17 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
27.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
27.7%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-5
27.5%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
27.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
26.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2771% → 69%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+24
29.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 24 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
28.8%
Sam Howell sacked by Alim McNeill for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 16
OWN 26
0
29.2%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+8
29.6%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
30.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
29.8%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
29.7%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-5
29.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+1
29.1%
Trent Pennix run for 1 yd to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 16
OWN 15
-3
28.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 47 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 12 NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:5970% → 71%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
50
0
29.7%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
50
+1
30.0%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+6
30.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 6 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+33
30.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 33 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
29.2%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
29.2%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 5Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
29.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 10Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
30.1%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
29.3%
Noah Ruggles 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
32.3%
Devin Leary run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 18 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCSt Devin LearySimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
32.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Tabari Hines, broken up by Don ChapmanSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
31.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
31.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+72
30.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 68 yds, downed at the NCSTATE 9 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (4 Yards) to the NCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:5869% → 71%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+57
30.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 57 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
28.2%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
28.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 8 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+5
28.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 5 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
27.4%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
27.4%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+5
28.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (Ibrahim Kante) to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
27.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
27.4%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-5
29.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Joseph Boletepeli for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
29.5%
Noah Ruggles 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
29.9%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
28.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
28.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
29.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 11 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
28.3%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Payton Wilson return for 16 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2033% → 46%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
50
+4
32.8%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
33.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
32.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
31.5%
Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
45.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 39 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 1:2557% → 59%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-9
40.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Alim McNeill for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
44.3%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Payton Wilson) to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
40.6%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
41.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 8 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+10
39.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+43
41.3%
Noah Ruggles 55 yd FG MISSED , Thayer Thomas return for 43 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding (Jahlil Taylor) to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
43.6%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-10
45.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Joshua Fedd-Jackson) to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+4
43.0%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
42.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 36
-5
41.4%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Jaylon Scott) to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+5
41.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 54%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
43.3%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
42.9%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-5
43.7%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
45.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
46.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter, broken up by Storm DuckSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
45.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
44.9%
Devin Leary pass intercepted Don Chapman return for no gain to the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:3556% → 71%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
43.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 21 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
29.0%
Javonte Williams run for 26 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
32.7%
Devin Leary sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
31.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 42 yds, downed at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:4468% → 84%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
31.7%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
30.6%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
30.0%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
29.4%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
29.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 12 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
29.4%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
28.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+6
29.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 6 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
28.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Malik DunlapSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
28.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 10 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
16.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
19.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Storm Duck) to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
20.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
19.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 43 Zonovan Knight fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Gemmel, recovered by NCaro Jeremiah GemmelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:3583% → 93%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
17.1%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+10
16.9%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
16.5%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+11
16.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 11 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
16.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
6.6%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
10.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 19 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
11.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 3 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
11.9%
Devin Leary pass intercepted Trey Morrison return for no gain to the NCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:3793% → 98%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
6.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 6 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+52
2.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 52 yds for a TD NC STATE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 70 yds · 0:153% → 3%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
2.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jason Strowbridge) to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 22
+7
2.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 7 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
2.8%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+30
3.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 30 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
3.4%
Bailey Hockman run for 12 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
3.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jeremiah Gemmel) to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
3.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
3.5%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Ikem Ekwonu) to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
3.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for no gain to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
3.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
0
3.0%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:5698% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
1.7%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+38
1.6%
Michael Carter run for 38 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+31
1.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 31 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
1.5%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OPP 7
-11
1.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jake Bargas) to the NCSt 18Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+5
1.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 5 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
0.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26INT
7 plays · 47 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Tabari Hines for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
0.2%
Bailey Hockman run for 7 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
0.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
0.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Trey Morrison) to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
0.3%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
0.3%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Myles Dorn return for no gain to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 63 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
0.2%
Josh Henderson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
0.2%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+31
0.2%
Vincent Amendola pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 31 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
0.2%
Josh Henderson run for 6 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+8
0.2%
Vincent Amendola pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 8 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the NCSt 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Josh HendersonSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+5
0.2%
Josh Henderson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+11
0.2%
Josh Henderson run for 11 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:07
Javonte Williams run for 26 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-15
TD · Q2 1:25
Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 39 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+14
TD · Q3 5:00
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com