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LOU

Louisville 34 at NC State 20

NCSU
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:01 · Mason King punt for 46 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense+0.7Pregame prior−9.0Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:24: Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 74 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK) — LOU win probability +11.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:30: Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 42 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux PAT MISSED) — LOU win probability +9.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:44: Micale Cunningham pass complete to Ean Pfeifer for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK) — LOU win probability +14.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:11: Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:42: Ryan Chalifoux pass complete to Marshon Ford for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK) — LOU win probability +13.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00NCSU 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:06LOU 4th & 17 at NCSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:41NCSU 4th & 9 at LOU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−6.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:36LOU 4th & 23 at LOU 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:01LOU 4th & 16 at NCSU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    47.0%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:23NCSU 4th & 21 at NCSU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−2.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:39NCSU 4th & 3 at LOU 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−2.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:42LOU 4th & 7 at NCSU 7, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    83.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−9.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:42NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:42NCSU 4th & 10 at LOU 47, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:19NCSU 4th & 7 at LOU 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:15LOU 4th & 4 at NCSU 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:55NCSU 4th & 5 at LOU 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 11:54LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:01NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:24LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:30LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:44LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:11NCSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:42LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
34.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
34.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 13 yds to the NCSt 35 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
34.6%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+7
34.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 7 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
34.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
34.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+5
34.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+9
34.6%
Devin Leary run for 9 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
34.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
50
0
34.6%
Keyon Lesane pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
50
0
34.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
50
0
34.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.2%
Micale Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
36.2%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+14
36.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 14 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
36.1%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 16 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
35.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-5
36.1%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+2
36.1%
Micale Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 18
OWN 45
+2
36.2%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 2 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
36.4%
Mason King punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
37.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 15 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
37.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
38.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+6
37.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 6 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
38.2%
Devin Leary run for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
38.4%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 42 Zonovan Knight fumbled, forced by Russ Yeast, recovered by Lvile G.G. RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:1063% → 61%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
37.2%
Micale Cunningham run for 2 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
37.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+19
37.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
36.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
36.9%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Drake ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-9
37.4%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Jarius Morehead for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 17
OPP 26
+44
39.4%
Ryan Chalifoux 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0640% → 42%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
39.9%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
40.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 8 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
40.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 9 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
41.1%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
41.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
41.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 7 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
42.0%
Devin Leary pass intercepted Dorian Etheridge return for 4 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:5962% → 66%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
38.4%
Micale Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
38.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
38.4%
Micale Cunningham run for 8 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
38.2%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+3
38.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 3 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-5
38.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+43
33.8%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 43 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:1335% → 39%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
34.9%
Jordan Houston run for 16 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
36.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+23
36.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 23 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
37.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-1
37.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+15
36.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 15 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
37.3%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
37.3%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the Lvile 9Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-2
36.4%
Devin Leary run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 11Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
38.8%
Christopher Dunn 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
37.4%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-5
37.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 13
OWN 20
-9
37.8%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 11Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 22
OWN 11
+8
38.6%
Micale Cunningham run for 8 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 23
OWN 10
0
39.3%
Mason King punt for 17 yds, downed at the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 14
OWN 19
-9
39.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, UN (Micale Cunningham) to the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:2142% → 51%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
42.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
42.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 3 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+5
40.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive offside (Boosie Whitlow) to the Lvile 19Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
40.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
51.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 15 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
47.1%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Alim McNeill for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 24Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+23
47.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 23 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.4%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
45.0%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
44.1%
Micale Cunningham run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 49 Micale Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile Micale CunninghamSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+3
45.9%
Micale Cunningham run for 3 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
46.8%
Micale Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
48.0%
Mason King punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
49.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3650% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
49.7%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
50.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+74
38.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 74 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
39.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 3 yds Keyon Lesane fumbled, forced by Russ Yeast, recovered by Lvile Tabarius PetersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:4165% → 75%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
34.7%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+42
25.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 42 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
27.2%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-11
27.2%
Devin Leary run for a loss of 11 yards to the NCSt 27 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCSt Devin LearySimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 21
OWN 27
0
25.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 21
OWN 27
+21
24.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 58 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 21 yds to the Lvile 48 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:0674% → 89%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
25.7%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
25.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
25.6%
Micale Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
25.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
25.2%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+11
25.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jarius Morehead) to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
25.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+15
25.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kishawn Miller) to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
24.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
24.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
24.7%
Micale Cunningham run for 2 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+9
24.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 9 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
24.7%
Micale Cunningham run for 3 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.7%
Micale Cunningham run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.6%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Ean Pfeifer for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:2813% → 25%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
13.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 4 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
13.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
13.8%
Devin Leary run for 3 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
14.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
14.7%
Devin Leary run for 6 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
14.9%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+3
14.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 8
50
+5
14.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Gary McCrae) to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
15.2%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+10
14.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
13.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+14
13.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 14 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
24.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:2280% → 94%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
19.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Malik Dunlap) to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
18.9%
Hassan Hall run for no gain to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
19.0%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+14
19.8%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Hassan Hall for 14 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
18.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+9
18.8%
Micale Cunningham run for 9 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
18.8%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
18.8%
Micale Cunningham run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 7Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
19.5%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan DavisSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.7%
Ryan Chalifoux pass complete to Marshon Ford for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19FG
17 plays · 65 yds · 5:236% → 5%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
5.7%
Devin Leary run for 5 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.7%
Thayer Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr., broken up by Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
5.7%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+6
5.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 6 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+10
5.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 10 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
6.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-2
6.3%
Devin Leary sacked by G.G. Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
6.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+14
5.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 14 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
6.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 20 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
7.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
7.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+3
6.5%
Devin Leary run for 3 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
4.5%
Christopher Dunn 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0496% → 97%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
3.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
3.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+1
2.7%
Micale Cunningham run for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
2.8%
Mason King punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 94 yds · 2:123% → 1%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
2.8%
Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+10
2.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 10 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
2.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Zonovan KnightSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
2.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Cary Angeline, broken up by Dorian EtheridgeSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+21
2.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 21 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
3.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 12 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
3.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+15
3.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jared Goldwire) to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
3.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+19
3.6%
Devin Leary sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 6 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ikem Ekwonu , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down , return for 12 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive holding (7 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
3.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
3.8%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the Lvile 5Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter, broken up by Dorian EtheridgeSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:44
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Ean Pfeifer for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)
-14
TD · Q4 9:42
Ryan Chalifoux pass complete to Marshon Ford for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 13:24
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 74 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com