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NCSU

NC State 13 at Florida State 31

FSU
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+4.6FSU 97.5%Cam Akers run for 41 yds for a TD,(Parker Grothaus KICK)AWAY 13 - HOME 31 · Q4 9:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:13 · Cam Akers run for 41 yds for a TD, (Parker Grothaus KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+3.5Home team on offense+27.7Score differential+13.9Garbage-time factor+12.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:59: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 43 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:58: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 40 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +13.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:59: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Grothaus KICK) — FSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:04: Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 3 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:13: Cam Akers run for 41 yds for a TD, (Parker Grothaus KICK) — FSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:29NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:12NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:40FSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:58NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:24FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:20NCSU 4th & 7 at FSU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:49FSU 4th & 21 at FSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:47FSU 4th & 26 at FSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:25NCSU 4th & 9 at FSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:17NCSU 4th & 1 at FSU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−1.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:15FSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:06NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 11, down 11
    Close callPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:43FSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:53NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:52FSU 4th & 26 at NCSU 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:40NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:13FSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−2.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−2.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:21NCSU 4th & 21 at NCSU 47, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:40FSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:07NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 30, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 4:59FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:58FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:59FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:04NCSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:13FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1028% → 28%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.4%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
72.2%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
72.1%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
72.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 12 , D.J. Matthews returns for no gain to the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1272% → 72%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
72.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 9 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+4
72.1%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
71.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 53 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 6 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1228% → 28%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
71.7%
Matthew McKay run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 22 Matthew McKay fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ricky Person Jr. , return for 7 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-2
71.5%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
71.7%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+9
71.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 48 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 9 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:0872% → 72%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
71.8%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-5
72.0%
Akers,C rush up middle for 1 yard to the FS49 (Murchison, L.), PENALTY FS illegal formation 5 yards to the FS43, NO PLAY, clock 09:28.Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
71.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 1
50
+5
71.6%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
71.8%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
71.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for 7 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
71.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 3 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
71.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Keith Gavin for 11 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
71.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 3 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
71.7%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-1
71.4%
Alex Hornibrook run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
71.7%
Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:1828% → 28%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.6%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
71.4%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
71.7%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 17 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
70.7%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
70.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
71.1%
Matthew McKay pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
71.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
71.0%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Larrell Murchison for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+4
70.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 13
OWN 12
-1
70.6%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Xavier Lyas for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 14 Alex Hornibrook fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
70.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4231% → 32%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
69.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-3
69.1%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+12
70.1%
McKay, M. sideline pass incomplete to Emezie, E., PENALTY FS pass interference (Lytton,A) 12 yards to the FS15, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY, clock 00:54.Similar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
69.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
69.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-5
69.8%
Bailey Hockman run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
68.3%
Christopher Dunn 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:1170% → 69%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.0%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
69.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
69.2%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Larrell Murchison for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-5
68.7%
Martin,T punt 46 yards to the ST35, downed, PENALTY FS illegal formation 5 yards to the FS14, NO PLAY, clock 12:49.Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
68.7%
Tommy Martin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:4233% → 34%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
67.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+8
66.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cecil Powell for 8 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
66.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
66.4%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Cecil PowellSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
66.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 35 Zonovan Knight fumbled, forced by Dennis Briggs Jr., recovered by FlaSt Cyrus Fagan , return for 2 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:4970% → 68%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
69.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
69.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-15
68.8%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by C.J. Hart for a loss of 15 yards to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 26
OWN 19
+4
68.2%
Tommy Martin punt for 45 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:5033% → 37%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
66.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
66.6%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
65.6%
Bailey Hockman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
65.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Tabari Hines for 1 yd to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+9
63.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 9 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
63.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 33 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
62.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
62.6%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
62.6%
Christopher Dunn 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1564% → 74%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
64.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
66.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 13 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
66.6%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
66.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Cam Akers, broken up by Matthew McKaySimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+43
73.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 43 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:2426% → 27%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.1%
Jordan Houston run for 15 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
72.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 15 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
71.7%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 15
50
+5
72.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+9
72.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-3
72.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 1:4773% → 84%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
73.1%
Hornibrook,A screen pass incomplete to Laborn,K, PENALTY FS holding (Bello,A) 10 yards to the FS29, NO PLAY, clock 02:45.Similar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+9
72.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 9 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-5
72.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, encroachment (D.J. Matthews) to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
71.8%
Hornibrook,A crossing pass incomplete to Terry,T, dropped pass, PENALTY ST roughing passer (Lyas, X.) 15 yards to the FS48, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 01:46.Similar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Payton WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
73.0%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 8
50
-5
72.6%
Hornibrook,A crossing pass incomplete to Matthews,D (Baker-Williams), PENALTY FS illegal formation 5 yards to the FS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+15
71.0%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Matthew McKay) to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
84.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 40 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:4316% → 19%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
82.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 16 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Akeem DentSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
83.0%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+11
83.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Tabari Hines for 11 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
81.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
82.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 15 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+42
81.0%
Christopher Dunn 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:3083% → 81%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
82.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Tre' McKitty, broken up by Jarius MoreheadSimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
82.6%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
81.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 14:15
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
80.6%
Tommy Martin punt for 40 yds, downed at the NCSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3919% → 17%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
81.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+4
81.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
82.2%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 11Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
82.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 51 yds, downed at the FlaSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3183% → 82%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
82.8%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+12
83.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Warren Thompson for 12 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
83.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 15 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
83.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for 4 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-2
83.9%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Louis Acceus for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-4
83.4%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Deonte Holden and Xavier Lyas for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+47
82.3%
Ricky Aguayo 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4518% → 16%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Cecil PowellSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
82.3%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
83.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Tabari Hines, broken up by Asante Samuel Jr.Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+9
83.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 48 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 9 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 3:3584% → 83%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
83.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
83.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Keith Gavin for 5 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
84.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
84.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 24 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
85.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 7 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
85.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Khalan LabornSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+3
84.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 3 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
85.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Abdul Bello) to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 15
OPP 26
0
84.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 15
OPP 26
-4
84.9%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Alim McNeill and Larrell Murchison for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 19
OPP 30
-7
84.7%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Larrell Murchison for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 26
OPP 37
0
83.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 30 yds, downed at the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4216% → 13%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
84.0%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+3
84.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
86.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Isaiah BoldenSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 7
OWN 10
+6
86.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 47 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:0886% → 96%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
86.4%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
87.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
87.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 5 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+19
87.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 19 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
87.7%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
96.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:445% → 16%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Max Fisher, broken up by Asante Samuel Jr.Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
95.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Max Fisher for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, roughing passer (Brendan Gant) to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
94.6%
Jordan Houston run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+19
94.0%
Jordan Houston run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
94.0%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+8
94.5%
Hockman, B. deep out pass incomplete to Angeline, C., PENALTY FS personal foul (Durden,C) 8 yards to the FS7, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY, clock 13:57.Similar
Q4 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
94.5%
Hockman, B. sacked for loss of 3 yards to the FS10 (Robinson,J), fumble by Hockman, B. recovered by ST Houston, J. at FS15, Houston, J. for no gain to the FS15 (TEAM), PENALTY FS personal foul (Robinson,J) 4 yards to the FS3, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 3 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3289% → 98%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
89.3%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+14
89.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Warren Thompson for 14 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
90.0%
Akers,C rush right for 18 yards to the ST46 (Ingram, C.), PENALTY FS holding (Bello,A) 10 yards to the FS26, NO PLAY, clock 11:54.Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+2
89.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+22
90.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
50
+6
92.6%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
92.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
92.8%
Alex Hornibrook run for 3 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
97.5%
Cam Akers run for 41 yds for a TD, (Parker Grothaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:353% → 3%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 14 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
96.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 6 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+13
96.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 13 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
96.6%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-11
96.7%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Amari Gainer for a loss of 11 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 21
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 21
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Max FisherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
98.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+2
98.3%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
98.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
98.1%
Tommy Martin punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27FUMBLE
20 plays · 80 yds · 3:392% → 2%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.9%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Grant Gibson) to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
98.1%
Hockman, B. sideline pass complete to Carter, D. for 10 yards to the ST30 (Brown,J), PENALTY FS pass interference (Brown,J) 10 yards to the ST30, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY, clock 05:19.Similar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
98.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Tabari Hines for no gain to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
98.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas NC STATE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+12
98.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 12 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
98.0%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Grant Gibson) to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 15
OPP 0
0
97.8%
Hockman, B. throw away pass incomplete, PENALTY ST holding off-setting, PENALTY FS roughing passer off-setting, NO PLAY, clock 03:38.Similar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+15
98.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 15 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cecil Powell for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
98.1%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+11
98.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cecil Powell for 11 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
97.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-5
98.0%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Ikem Ekwonu) to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
98.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 14 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter, broken up by Renardo GreenSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-4
97.9%
Devin Leary sacked by Amari Gainer for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+23
98.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Max Fisher for 23 yds Max Fisher fumbled, forced by Amari Gainer, recovered by FlaSt Emmett RiceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:58
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 40 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+13
TD · Q4 13:04
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 3 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q3 0:59
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Grothaus KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com