Try the model
BALL

Ball State 23 at NC State 34

NCSU
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:11 · Nathan Snyder punt for 54 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Pregame prior+26.8Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:18: Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:38: Matthew McKay run for 5 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:21: Ryan Rimmler 28 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +3.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:41: Matthew McKay run for 3 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:49: Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +5.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:54BALL 4th & 3 at NCSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:29NCSU 4th & 14 at BALL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:06NCSU 4th & 6 at BALL 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 5 at NCSU 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:41BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 14, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:11BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:47BALL 4th & 3 at NCSU 47, down 13
    Close callPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:03BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:41BALL 4th & 10 at NCSU 26, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:35NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:23BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 39, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:13NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.7%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:41BALL 4th & 5 at NCSU 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−3.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:21BALL 4th & 4 at NCSU 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−5.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:30BALL 4th & 19 at BALL 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:28BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:18NCSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:38NCSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:41NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:49BALL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 20 yds · 3:0611% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
89.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 11 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
89.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Caleb Huntley for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+8
89.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 8 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+11
89.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 11 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
89.5%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
89.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for no gain to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+5
89.5%
Walter Fletcher run for 5 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+7
89.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 7 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-6
88.5%
Drew Plitt run for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 45 Drew Plitt fumbled, recovered by BalSt Walter FletcherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:1889% → 88%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
88.8%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
88.8%
Matthew McKay run for 7 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
88.8%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 8 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-1
88.8%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Keyon Lesane for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 25Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-5
88.7%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+12
88.7%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 12 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
88.8%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+1
88.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
88.8%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Zonovan KnightSimilar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 14
OPP 22
0
88.7%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Zonovan KnightSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+39
87.7%
Christopher Dunn 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0112% → 15%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.9%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kishawn Miller) to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
87.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 12 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
87.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 4
50
0
87.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 4
50
+11
87.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 11 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.6%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
87.6%
Malik Dunner run for 14 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
87.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 11 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
87.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
85.0%
Justin Hall run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 5:1486% → 84%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
85.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 23Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+5
85.5%
BALL ST Penalty, encroachment (5 Yards) to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
85.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
85.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.6%
Matthew McKay pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
85.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+19
85.5%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 19 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
86.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+18
86.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (Ray Wilborn) to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
86.3%
Keyon Lesane run for 1 yd to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
86.3%
Matthew McKay run for no gain to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+3
86.1%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for 3 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
84.2%
Christopher Dunn 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0617% → 17%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 13 yds Antwan Davis fumbled, forced by De'Von Graves, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
82.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 21 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
82.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 5 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
82.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Chris IngramSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
82.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by De'Von GravesSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
83.0%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
83.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
83.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+20
82.7%
Bailey Hockman run for 20 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
84.4%
Jordan Houston run for 13 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
84.7%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Ray Wilborn return for no gain to the BalSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
81.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
81.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 6
OWN 23
-9
82.0%
Drew Plitt sacked by Isaiah Moore and Louis Acceus for a loss of 9 yards to the BalSt 14Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
82.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2983% → 87%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.5%
Thayer Thomas pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+16
81.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 16 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
82.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+19
83.3%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for 19 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
83.3%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 19Similar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+7
83.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
83.3%
Matthew McKay run for 4 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+5
82.7%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Devin Carter for 5 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
84.3%
Justin Hall run for 11 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
83.8%
Walter Fletcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
84.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
84.7%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+4
85.0%
Nathan Snyder punt for 54 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:1485% → 92%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.3%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
85.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+5
84.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
85.5%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 19 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
86.5%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 5 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
86.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+8
86.2%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
86.7%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 18 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
86.7%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 14 yds to the BalSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.8%
Matthew McKay run for 5 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:5110% → 10%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
90.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Drew Plitt for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
90.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 14 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
89.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 7 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
89.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Malik Dunner, broken up by Kishawn MillerSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
89.4%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
89.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:2792% → 93%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
91.8%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 22 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
92.3%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
92.1%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+13
91.8%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 13 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
92.4%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 4 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
92.5%
BALL ST Penalty, encroachment (5 Yards) to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+53
92.6%
Christopher Dunn 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.7%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
90.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
90.2%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
89.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 45 yds , Riley Miller returns for no gain to the BalSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5210% → 4%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
89.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
89.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
89.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+76
96.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 39 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 76 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 3:224% → 7%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
96.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
96.3%
BALL ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
96.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 10 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
96.3%
Walter Fletcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Savion Jackson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
50
0
96.1%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
50
+8
96.2%
Walter Fletcher run for 8 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+16
96.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 16 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
95.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
95.9%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
96.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
93.1%
Ryan Rimmler 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
94.8%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
94.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
94.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 1
OWN 36
-5
94.4%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Joe Sculthorpe) to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 6
OWN 31
-5
94.2%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
94.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Riley Miller at the BalSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
94.3%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Kaleb Slaven) to the BalSt 14Similar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+4
94.4%
Walter Fletcher run for 4 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+10
94.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 10 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
94.0%
Walter Fletcher run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan Davis, broken up by Payton WilsonSimilar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
94.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
93.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
93.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+25
95.1%
Jordan Houston run for 25 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
95.4%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
95.6%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Max Fisher, broken up by Jaylin ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
95.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
95.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:455% → 7%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
94.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-1
94.5%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
94.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 7 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
94.3%
Walter Fletcher run for 7 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-2
94.5%
Walter Fletcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
93.4%
Ryan Rimmler 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:3596% → 95%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
95.5%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 33 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Joe Sculthorpe) to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 17
OWN 23
0
95.4%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+5
95.4%
Matthew McKay run for 5 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
95.4%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+11
94.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 53 yds , Riley Miller returns for 11 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21FG
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:266% → 10%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
94.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 17 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
94.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 5 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+15
94.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 15 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
93.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 16 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
93.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
93.3%
Walter Fletcher run for 6 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
93.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
90.2%
Ryan Rimmler 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
92.0%
BALL ST Penalty, targeting (Brock Burns) to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
92.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
92.5%
Matthew McKay pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
92.0%
Matthew McKay pass intercepted Bryce Cosby return for no gain to the BalSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:009% → 7%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
90.7%
Drew Plitt sacked by Tyler Baker-Williams and Larrell Murchison for a loss of 10 yards to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+1
92.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for 1 yd to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 19
OWN 39
0
92.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Walter FletcherSimilar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 19
OWN 39
+8
92.9%
Nathan Snyder punt blocked by Max Fisher blocked by Max Fisher Zonovan Knight return for 8 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1794% → 98%
Q4 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
94.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
94.3%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 1 yd to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.1%
Matthew McKay run for 3 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:523% → 9%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
97.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 7 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
97.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
97.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+11
96.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Hassan Littles for 11 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
97.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+17
97.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Hassan Littles for 17 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
96.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for 16 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
96.5%
Walter Fletcher run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.2%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the NCSt 2Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26INT
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+35
92.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 35 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
90.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Taiyon PalmerSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
91.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 5 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
91.3%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted, touchback. Chris Ingram return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 21 yds · 1:0096% → 98%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
95.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 16 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
96.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+1
97.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+15
97.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 15 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
97.7%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Bryson Speas) to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+2
97.6%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 13
OWN 44
-2
97.7%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-1
97.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:49
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q2 1:38
Matthew McKay run for 5 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q2 6:18
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com