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ECU

East Carolina 6 at NC State 34

NCSU
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:29 · Jonn Young punt for 51 yds, downed at the NCSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+22.9Home team on offense+5.2Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:04: Jake Verity 47 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +1.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:01: Christopher Dunn 27 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:51: Matthew McKay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:48: Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for 48 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:21: Matthew McKay run for 21 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ECU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 6:04ECU 4th & 8 at NCSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:04NCSU 4th & 2 at ECU 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−0.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:10ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:01NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:32ECU 4th & 10 at NCSU 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:01NCSU 4th & 6 at ECU 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:46NCSU 4th & 2 at ECU 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:29ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:33NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:23ECU 4th & 17 at ECU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 4 at ECU 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:58ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:45ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:34NCSU 4th & 3 at ECU 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:49ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:21ECU 4th & 17 at ECU 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:14NCSU 4th & 5 at ECU 17, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:18ECU 4th & 8 at NCSU 14, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:34NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:51NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:48NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:21NCSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FUMBLE
14 plays · 75 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
85.0%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
85.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (Val Martin) to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
85.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
85.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
85.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Mydreon Vines for 6 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
85.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Mydreon Vines for 9 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+11
85.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
85.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+10
85.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 10 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
85.0%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 9 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+1
85.0%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
85.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Tanner Ingle, recovered by NCSt Jarius MoreheadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:5084% → 85%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
83.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+18
83.7%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 18 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
83.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 15 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
84.0%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 19 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
84.1%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+15
84.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Bruce Bivens) to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
84.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:2116% → 17%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
84.3%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
84.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 12 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
84.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Tanner IngleSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
84.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+10
84.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive holding (Chris Ingram) to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
83.9%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
83.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Tanner IngleSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
84.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
82.9%
Jake Verity 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
83.1%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
83.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
83.4%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+7
83.1%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 7 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+1
83.1%
Matthew McKay run for 1 yd to the ECaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4418% → 17%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
82.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Mydreon VinesSimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
82.1%
Hussein Howe run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
82.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Xavier LyasSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
83.2%
Jonn Young punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
82.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
82.8%
Matthew McKay run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.7%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
82.5%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 2 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
82.4%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+12
82.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 53 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 12 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:4618% → 18%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
82.3%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
82.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Leroy Henley, broken up by Nick McCloudSimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+18
82.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 18 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
81.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 2 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
81.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+4
81.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 4 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
81.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Leroy Henley for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+7
81.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Leroy Henley for 7 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
80.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
81.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Mydreon VinesSimilar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+52
81.6%
Jake Verity 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:3181% → 84%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
81.3%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Jordan Houston for 6 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+12
81.9%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Devin Carter for 12 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+34
82.2%
Tabari Hines run for 34 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
82.5%
Trent Pennix run for 3 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
82.5%
Matthew McKay run for 1 yd to the ECaro 9Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
82.1%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Jasiah ProvillonSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
83.8%
Christopher Dunn 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9INT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
83.4%
Hussein Howe run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 12
OWN 22
-8
83.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 2 yds to the ECaro 24 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Blake Proehl) to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+15
83.5%
NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (James Smith-Williams) to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
83.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-5
83.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
83.4%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Chris Ingram return for no gain to the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
84.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+11
84.2%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
84.6%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
84.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
83.4%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
83.6%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-3
83.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
84.3%
Jonn Young punt for 51 yds, downed at the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
83.8%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 9 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
84.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.6%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
84.3%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
83.7%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
82.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5217% → 16%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
83.2%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
83.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Anthony Watley, broken up by Brock MillerSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-10
83.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by James Smith-Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
83.9%
Jonn Young punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:2384% → 90%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
83.9%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 45 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
84.3%
Matthew McKay run for 1 yd to the ECaro 4 Matthew McKay fumbled, forced by Team, recovered by NCSt Emanuel McGirt Jr.Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.9%
Matthew McKay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:2711% → 12%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Mydreon Vines for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
88.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 12 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
88.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.4%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Cary Angeline for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+16
89.6%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 16 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
89.9%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
89.9%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Jordan Houston for no gain to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
89.5%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
89.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
89.2%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECaro 21Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
89.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+16
89.4%
Jonn Young punt for 58 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 16 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:4090% → 97%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
90.1%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for no gain to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
90.1%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Jordan Houston for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+18
89.8%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for 18 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
97.0%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for 48 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:524% → 4%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
96.4%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the ECaro 7Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+9
96.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 9 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+8
96.3%
Hussein Howe run for 8 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Leroy Henley, broken up by Nick McCloudSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-9
96.3%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Isaiah Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+16
96.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Hussein Howe for 16 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+9
96.4%
Jonn Young punt for 51 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 9 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
97.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+22
97.5%
Jordan Houston run for 22 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
97.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Bryson Speas) to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+10
97.6%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds Thayer Thomas fumbled, forced by Xavier Smith, recovered by NCSt Cary AngelineSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
97.7%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-1
97.6%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
97.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
97.4%
Hussein Howe run for 1 yd to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+9
97.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 9 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
97.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Zech Byrd for 20 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
97.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
97.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
97.2%
Jonn Young punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:0699% → 100%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
98.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Jsi Hatfield) to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
98.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
98.9%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for 8 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.0%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Dylan Parham, broken up by Ja'Quan McMillianSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
98.9%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr., broken up by Xavier SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+14
98.9%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 14 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
99.0%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 14 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.8%
Matthew McKay run for 21 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
99.9%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Larrell Murchison for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Jonn Young punt for 49 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 1 yd to the NCSt 19 NC STATE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 6:35100% → 100%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
99.8%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Max Fisher for 5 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+13
99.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 13 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.9%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
99.8%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
99.9%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+24
99.9%
Keyon Lesane run for 24 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
99.9%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-5
99.9%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Emanuel McGirt Jr.) to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane, broken up by Gerard StringerSimilar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+6
99.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 6 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
99.9%
Christopher Dunn 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
99.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Leroy Henley for 11 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 5 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 7 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+37
99.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 37 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.9%
Reid Herring run for 2 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Jeremy LewisSimilar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Zech ByrdSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
99.9%
Jake Verity 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
99.9%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:48
Matthew McKay pass complete to Tabari Hines for 48 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q2 0:51
Matthew McKay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+5.6
FG · Q2 10:01
Christopher Dunn 27 yd FG GOOD
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com