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FSU

Florida State 17 at Florida 40

FLA
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:46 · Tommy Martin punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+30.6Home team on offense+1.7Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:59: Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:55: Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 23 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +4.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:06: Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 13 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +4.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:34: Emory Jones pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +2.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:53: Cam Akers run for 50 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00FLA 4th & 1 at FSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:19FSU 4th & 1 at FLA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:46FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:55FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:28FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:31FSU 4th & 29 at FSU 3, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.6
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:10FLA 4th & 3 at FSU 32, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.3
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:13FSU 4th & 21 at FLA 31, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:13FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 49, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.6%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:56FLA 4th & 4 at FSU 4, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:14FSU 4th & 27 at FSU 40, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:06FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 19, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:40FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 35, up 23
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:50FSU 4th & 27 at FSU 24, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:19FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:59FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:46FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:55FLA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:06FLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:34FLA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:53FSU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4189% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
88.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 5 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
88.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 19 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
88.9%
Lamical Perine run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
88.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 8 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+8
88.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 8 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.9%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
88.9%
Kadarius Toney run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+10
88.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
88.9%
Kyle Trask run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
88.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 19 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2012% → 15%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.2%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for no gain to the FlaSt 32 to Cam Akers for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
88.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 9 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+45
88.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 45 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
87.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+13
87.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 13 yds to the Fla 6Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
87.9%
James Blackman run for no gain to the Fla 6Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
88.0%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the Fla 5Similar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
88.1%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.9%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the Fla 2Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.9%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the Fla 1Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.5%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:1386% → 87%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
86.3%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+20
86.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul (Hamsah Nasirildeen) to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
86.6%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+16
86.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 16 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
86.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 6 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-5
86.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
86.7%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+8
86.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 8 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+5
86.3%
Pierce,D. rush over right guard for no gain to the FS21 (Durden,C;Nasirildeen,H), PENALTY FS offside (Cooper,R) 5 yards to the FS16, 1ST DOWN UF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
86.7%
Josh Hammond run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
85.1%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
85.1%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.7%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
85.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+11
85.9%
James Blackman run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
85.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 1:3086% → 91%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+47
85.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 47 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
86.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lucas Krull for 15 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
90.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 23 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.0%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
88.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
89.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
89.2%
Tommy Martin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
90.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 1 yd to the Fla 36Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
90.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle Pitts, broken up by Cyrus FaganSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
89.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -19 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
89.2%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-1
89.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-13
89.3%
James Blackman sacked by Zachary Carter for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 21
OWN 11
-5
89.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 26
OWN 6
-3
89.6%
Martin,T punt 29 yards to the FS35, Swain,F. return to the FS35, fumble by Swain,F. recovered by FS Lytton,A at FS49, PENALTY FS illegal formation 3 yards to the FS3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 29
OWN 3
0
89.6%
Tommy Martin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:2391% → 96%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
90.5%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+23
90.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 11 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Asante Samuel Jr.) to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.6%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Kadarius ToneySimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
90.6%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+13
95.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 13 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 3:165% → 5%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
94.7%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
94.8%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
94.7%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
94.7%
Jordan Travis sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 38 Jordan Travis fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-6
95.4%
James Blackman sacked by James Houston IV and Ventrell Miller for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Tommy Martin punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:3296% → 97%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+31
96.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 31 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Tyrie Cleveland, broken up by Asante Samuel Jr.Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
96.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 7 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+6
96.5%
Kyle Trask run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
96.6%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Tyrie Cleveland, broken up by Stanford Samuels IIISimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
96.8%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+7
96.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+50
97.0%
Evan McPherson 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
96.0%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 28 FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the FlaSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 2:474% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
95.8%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 12 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by CJ HendersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
95.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 16 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+25
95.4%
D.J. Matthews pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 25 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
95.0%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
95.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews, broken up by Donovan StinerSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
95.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 6
OPP 16
-15
96.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul (D.J. Matthews) to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 21
OPP 31
+48
96.1%
Ricky Aguayo 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3997% → 100%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for no gain to the Fla 25Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
97.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 13 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
97.1%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
97.1%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
97.1%
Kyle Trask run for 8 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
96.9%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+30
97.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 30 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
97.2%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the FlaSt 18 FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Kyle Pitts) to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 25
OPP 33
+15
97.2%
Emory Jones run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+12
97.1%
Trask,K. post pass incomplete to Jefferson,V. (Samuels,S), PENALTY FS pass interference (Samuels,S) 12 yards to the FS6, 1ST DOWN UF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:360% → 3%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
99.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 7 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
99.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
50
+50
97.2%
Cam Akers run for 50 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 4:5198% → 99%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
98.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
98.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 4
50
+25
98.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 25 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.4%
Kadarius Toney pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+19
98.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 19 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
98.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 5 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Robert Cooper) to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.3%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.3%
Kyle Trask run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
98.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
99.2%
Evan McPherson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 3:361% → 1%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
98.7%
Cam Akers run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
98.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 2
50
+1
98.5%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
98.6%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
98.6%
James Blackman sacked by James Houston IV for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 49 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 16
OPP 49
-2
98.7%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 18
OWN 49
-9
98.7%
James Blackman sacked by Mohamoud Diabate and Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 27
OWN 40
0
99.0%
Tommy Martin punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kadarius Toney at the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.7%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Malik Davis run for no gain to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+4
99.7%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
99.7%
Tommy Townsend run for no gain to the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19MISSED FG
5 plays · -7 yds · 3:261% → 1%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Cam Akers, broken up by Luke AncrumSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
99.0%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Fla 19Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-2
99.0%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 12
OWN 17
-5
99.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 17
OWN 12
+44
99.2%
Ricky Aguayo 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for no gain to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
99.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+9
99.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 9 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Tommy Townsend punt for 36 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 2:441% → 0%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.4%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
99.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+7
99.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 22 yds to the FLORIDA 44 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul (Brady Scott) to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
99.4%
James Blackman sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 18
OWN 33
-5
99.4%
James Blackman sacked by Tedarrell Slaton and Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 23
OWN 28
-4
99.6%
James Blackman sacked by Adam Shuler and Luke Ancrum for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 27
OWN 24
+12
99.6%
Tommy Martin punt for 36 yds , Kadarius Toney returns for 12 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
99.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+1
99.8%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+17
99.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 17 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:06
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 13 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q2 10:55
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 23 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+4
TD · Q3 6:34
Emory Jones pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com