2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreVAN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:46 · Tommy Townsend punt for 42 yds, fair catch by C.J. Bolar at the Vandy 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:54: Lamical Perine 1 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +1.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:59: Kyle Trask 9 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +1.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:16: Trevon Grimes 66 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:52: Kyle Pitts 15 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:22: Jonathan Greenard 80 Yd Fumble Return (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:23FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt94.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:34VAN 4th & 8 at FLA 42, tiedClose callPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%34% to convertField goal5.5%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call5.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:12VAN 4th & 15 at VAN 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q2 14:54FLA 4th & 1 at VAN 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.1%59% to convertField goal90.8%−0.394% to makePunt90.0%−1.1average punt
- Q2 8:53VAN 4th & 18 at VAN 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q2 6:32FLA 4th & 14 at VAN 24, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.518% to convertField goalTheir call93.4%68% to makePunt91.6%−1.8average punt
- Q2 4:07VAN 4th & 20 at VAN 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q2 2:46FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 49, up 14Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snapGo for it93.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%−0.2average punt
- Q3 13:29VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q3 11:19VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q3 4:12VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:31VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:33FLA 4th & 10 at VAN 48, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:54VAN 4th & 14 at FLA 32, down 49Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.119% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%51% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q2 14:54FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:59FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:16FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:52FLA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:22FLA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:08FLA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:10FLA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:06FLA Touchdown, up 55 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFLADrive 1DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3296% → 96%
VANDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:414% → 4%
Q1 12:34
4TH & 8
OPP 42
+31
96.0%
Harrison Smith punt for 36 yds, downed at the Fla 6 VANDERBILT Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3INT9 plays · 62 yds · 3:5496% → 95%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
96.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 11 yds to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
95.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 20 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
95.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 9 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
95.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 6 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-2
95.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lucas Krull for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+16
95.3%
Kyle Trask pass intercepted Tae Daley return for 16 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 3:035% → 6%
FLADrive 5TD15 plays · 82 yds · 5:0694% → 94%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
94.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 12 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
94.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 18 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
93.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 9 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
93.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 10 yds to the Vandy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
93.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 5 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6INT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:276% → 6%
FLADrive 7TD4 plays · 23 yds · 1:4994% → 96%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
94.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 10 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:505% → 5%
FLADrive 9MISSED FG6 plays · 30 yds · 2:0195% → 95%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
95.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 24 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
95.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
95.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 3 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-7
95.0%
Kyle Trask sacked by Andre Mintze for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:585% → 5%
Q2 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-19
94.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 39 VANDERBILT Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Vandy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4995% → 95%
VANDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:026% → 6%
Q2 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+15
94.5%
Brooks, Keyon rush for loss of 2 yards to the VANDERBILT10, PENALTY FLORIDA face mask 15 yards to the VANDERBILT27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
94.4%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-5
94.0%
Deuce Wallace sacked by David Reese II for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13INT6 plays · 66 yds · 0:4995% → 95%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
95.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 14 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
94.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 14 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
95.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 24 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
95.1%
Kyle Trask pass intercepted Tae Daley return for 4 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14END OF HALF3 plays · -3 yds · 0:016% → 6%
VANDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:265% → 5%
FLADrive 16TD1 play · 66 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:452% → 2%
FLADrive 18TD2 plays · 51 yds · 0:1998% → 100%
VANDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD12 plays · 62 yds · 5:210% → 0%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+14
99.6%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 14 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
99.6%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Chris Pierce for 12 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
99.7%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Cam Johnson for 14 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
99.7%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to James Bostic for 15 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q3 4:12
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Harrison Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD5 plays · 79 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
99.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 12 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:370% → 0%
FLADrive 23PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
VANDrive 24INT3 plays · 6 yds · 1:440% → 0%
FLADrive 25TD6 plays · 25 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
99.9%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Copeland, Jacob, PENALTY VANDERBILT holding 10 yards to the VANDERBILT15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+9
99.9%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Hammond, Josh, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference 9 yards to the VANDERBILT2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26MISSED FG13 plays · 43 yds · 5:560% → 0%
Q4 5:55
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+32
100.0%
Allan Walters pass complete to James Bostic for 17 yds to the FLORIDA 43 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27TD8 plays · 68 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q4 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
100.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 10 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+39
100.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 37 yds to the Vandy 3 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Roughing Passer (2 Yards) to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:16
Trevon Grimes 66 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)
+3.4
TD · Q2 10:59
Kyle Trask 9 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)
+1.5
TD · Q3 10:52
Kyle Pitts 15 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)
+1.3