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FLA

Florida 28 at LSU 42

LSU
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:53 · Tommy Townsend punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior+25.6Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:48: Emory Jones pass complete to Lamical Perine for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +9.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:04: Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +13.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:54: Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +13.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:12: Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +16.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:15: Tyrion Davis-Price run for 33 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:33LSU 4th & 4 at FLA 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:52LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:48FLA 4th & 1 at LSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−6.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:31FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:32LSU 4th & 8 at FLA 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−1.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 0:49FLA 4th & 2 at LSU 2, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:55LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:34FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:44LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:48FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:55LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:04FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:54FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:12LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:15LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:43LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:1283% → 82%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
82.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 10 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
82.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 1 yd to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+23
82.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 23 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
82.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
82.5%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+3
82.4%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
82.2%
Cade York 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0018% → 18%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
81.9%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
81.8%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
81.8%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Tommy Townsend punt for 41 yds, downed at the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:1882% → 83%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+57
81.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 57 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
83.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2117% → 22%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 20Similar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+17
82.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 17 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
82.5%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+17
82.3%
Lamical Perine run for 17 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.2%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
82.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 11 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
81.8%
Emory Jones run for 12 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
81.7%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+1
81.6%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+6
81.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 6 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
81.1%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
80.9%
Kyle Trask run for 2 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2579% → 79%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
79.3%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
79.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
78.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:3322% → 23%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
78.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 23 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
77.5%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
77.4%
Kyle Trask run for 8 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
77.1%
Tommy Townsend punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:5678% → 83%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
78.2%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+13
78.0%
Joe Burrow run for 13 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+36
78.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 36 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
79.3%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Jefferson, Justin, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDA16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
79.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
82.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:4718% → 28%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.7%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
81.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 28 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
80.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 7 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+10
80.0%
Lamical Perine run for 10 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
79.2%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
79.3%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+4
80.0%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
79.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
79.1%
Kyle Trask run for 12 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
79.3%
Kyle Trask run for 3 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.2%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.9%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Lamical Perine for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1576% → 84%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
76.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
76.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 25 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
84.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 39 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4417% → 35%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.1%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
83.1%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Pitts, Kyle, PENALTY LSU pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.7%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+18
82.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 18 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
80.6%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+16
78.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 16 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
78.5%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
78.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 4 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
79.3%
Kyle Trask run for 3 yds to the LSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
64.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:5131% → 50%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
69.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 20 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
66.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 17 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
66.0%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+12
64.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 12 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
64.1%
Josh Hammond run for 11 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
64.0%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
63.6%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3354% → 73%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
54.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+19
53.4%
Joe Burrow run for 19 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
55.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 15 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
56.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+11
56.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 11 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
57.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 16 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
57.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Fla 10Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
57.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Fla 5Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
73.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -21 yds · 1:5234% → 33%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
65.6%
Trask, Kyle pass complete to Perine, Lamical for 27 yards to the LSU48, PENALTY FLORIDA holding 10 yards to the FLORIDA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
65.7%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 16Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
65.7%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-8
66.8%
Kyle Trask sacked by Marcel Brooks for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 8Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 27
OWN 8
-4
68.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the Fla 4Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 31
OWN 4
0
67.5%
Tommy Townsend punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:3071% → 85%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
69.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 12 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
71.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+33
85.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 33 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3420% → 17%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.2%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
79.9%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
82.1%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
82.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 49 yds, downed at the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:5484% → 87%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
84.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
85.4%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+14
84.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 14 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
87.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+17
87.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 17 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
88.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
87.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 3
OPP 35
-5
87.1%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Adrian Magee) to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
87.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 32 yds, downed at the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18INT
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:5816% → 20%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
83.8%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
84.4%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+21
85.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 21 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
83.2%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-2
83.8%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+19
85.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 19 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
81.4%
Kyle Trask run for 6 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+13
79.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 13 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
78.4%
Lamical Perine run for 10 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
77.7%
Freddie Swain run for 8 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
76.5%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
80.3%
Kyle Trask pass intercepted, touchback. Derek Stingley Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:3388% → 97%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
88.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 15 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
88.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
89.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 8 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
97.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 54 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20DOWNS
19 plays · 71 yds · 4:416% → 3%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
93.5%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
93.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
94.8%
Kyle Trask sacked by K'Lavon Chaisson for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+3
95.5%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+18
95.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 18 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
94.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 12 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
94.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 23 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
94.0%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
94.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+6
94.7%
Kyle Trask run for 6 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+5
96.9%
LSU Penalty, Roughing Passer (5 Yards) to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+3
96.1%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (3 Yards) to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.6%
Lamical Perine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.6%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.8%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
96.9%
Kyle Trask run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3298% → 99%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
98.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
98.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:12
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q3 3:15
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 33 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+14.5
TD · Q3 10:54
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com