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AUB

Auburn 13 at Florida 24

FLA
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.8FLA 52.1%Anders Carlson 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 7:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:11 · Anders Carlson 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 13:12: Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 64 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:28: Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +5.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:23: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +9.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:28: JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the Aub 46 — AUB win probability +10.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:04: Lamical Perine run for 88 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +20.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 13:52AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11AUB 4th & 1 at FLA 30, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:01AUB 4th & 3 at FLA 21, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.7%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:16FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:29AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 34, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:30FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:49FLA 4th & 7 at AUB 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:44AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:38FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:09AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 33, up 4
    Numbers favored punt by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:18FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:28FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:32AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:54FLA 4th & 16 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:19AUB 4th & 30 at AUB 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−5.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:46AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 45, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:12FLA 4th & 7 at AUB 35, up 11
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:02FLA 4th & 5 at AUB 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:12FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:28FLA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:23AUB Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:04FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0351% → 50%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
49.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
49.6%
Arryn Siposs punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:4050% → 50%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.5%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 36Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+64
50.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 64 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2750% → 49%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
50.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
50.4%
Bo Nix run for 9 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
50.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
51.1%
Arryn Siposs punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5351% → 54%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
51.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 4 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
51.7%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
51.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 10 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
52.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 36Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+26
52.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 26 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
53.4%
Perine, Lamical rush for loss of 3 yards to the AUBURN41, PENALTY FLORIDA holding 10 yards to the AUBURN48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-13
53.5%
Kyle Trask sacked by Christian Tutt for a loss of 13 yards to the Fla 39 Kyle Trask fumbled, forced by Christian Tutt, recovered by Aub Chandler Wooten , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3248% → 48%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
52.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
52.2%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+10
53.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 10 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+48
52.1%
Anders Carlson 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:5152% → 53%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
52.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
52.0%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Pitts, Kyle, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Monday, Smoke) 15 yards to the FLORIDA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
53.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Fla 44 Dameon Pierce fumbled, forced by K.J. Britt, recovered by Aub Tyrone TruesdellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:1348% → 48%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
52.0%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
52.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+13
52.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 13 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
51.9%
Kam Martin run for 6 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+1
52.0%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Fla 21Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
52.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Fla 21Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
51.9%
Anders Carlson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4453% → 53%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
52.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 3 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
52.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 62 yds , TEAM returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 2 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla Jeremiah MoonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · -21 yds · 1:1655% → 55%
Q1 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
55.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyree Campbell) to the Aub 17Similar
Q1 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+3
55.2%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
55.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kyle Pitts for no gain to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+42
55.3%
Kyle Trask sacked by Marlon Davidson for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 35 Kyle Trask fumbled, forced by Marlon Davidson, recovered by Aub Derrick Brown , return for 0 yards , return for 42 yds to the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10INT
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 14:13
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+26
53.4%
Bo Nix pass intercepted for a 1ST down Shawn Davis return for 41 yds to the Aub 0 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4556% → 61%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
56.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+10
56.1%
Lamical Perine run for 10 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
61.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5840% → 39%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
59.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
60.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
61.3%
Arryn Siposs punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5961% → 61%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
61.0%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
60.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 7 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
61.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 3
OWN 34
-1
60.5%
Tommy Townsend run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
51.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:2955% → 59%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.0%
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
55.6%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
56.5%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
56.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Freddie Swain for 14 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
58.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Freddie Swain for 20 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
59.8%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-2
60.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+2
59.4%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
59.0%
Evan McPherson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0442% → 40%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.4%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Jack Driscoll) to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
58.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+9
59.1%
Bo Nix run for 9 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
59.7%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
59.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0659% → 58%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
59.1%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
59.5%
Malik Davis run for 8 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
60.0%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
60.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-4
59.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kyle Pitts for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
58.2%
Tommy Townsend punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2838% → 35%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
62.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
62.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
63.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
64.6%
Arryn Siposs punt for 36 yds, downed at the Fla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:0960% → 59%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
60.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
60.3%
Trask, Kyle pass complete to Hammond, Josh for 9 yards to the FLORIDA41, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Forsythe, Stone) 10 yards to the FLORIDA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 20
OWN 22
-5
59.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jean Delance) to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 25
OWN 17
+6
59.7%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+10
57.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
59.1%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4160% → 60%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
58.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 12 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
60.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 3 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
61.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 6 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-1
61.7%
Kyle Trask run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
60.1%
Tommy Townsend punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:5741% → 40%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
59.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
59.3%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
59.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5864% → 63%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
63.9%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Jefferson, Van, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (McCreary, Roger) 3 yards to the FLORIDA36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
64.5%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
65.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
63.7%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
62.7%
Tommy Townsend punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5638% → 35%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
62.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 12 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
61.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+3
61.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-5
61.2%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
63.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
64.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:3865% → 65%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
64.9%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+7
65.0%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Jefferson, Van, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Igbinoghene, Noah) 7 yards to the FLORIDA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
65.4%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Jefferson, Van, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Igbinoghene, Noah) 11 yards to the FLORIDA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
67.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 10 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
68.7%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Grimes, Trevon, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Heggie, Brett) 10 yards to the FLORIDA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 20
OWN 46
-3
66.4%
Kyle Trask sacked by T.D. Moultry for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 23
OWN 43
+3
66.1%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+4
64.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 16
50
+45
64.6%
Tommy Townsend punt for 41 yds, downed at the FLORIDA 9 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (4 Yards) to the Aub 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25INT
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2436% → 40%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
64.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 6Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+14
65.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 14 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
64.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+9
62.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 9 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
62.8%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+46
60.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 46 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
57.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 3 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
57.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-5
59.5%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Marquel Harrell) to the Fla 15Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
60.5%
Bo Nix pass intercepted, touchback. Donovan Stiner return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26FUMBLE
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:3268% → 74%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.1%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+32
67.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 32 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
72.2%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+10
72.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
73.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 17 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
74.0%
Kyle Trask run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+11
74.2%
Kyle Trask sacked by Derrick Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 40 Kyle Trask fumbled, forced by Derrick Brown, recovered by Aub Derrick Brown , return for 0 yards , return for 11 yds to the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0936% → 31%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
63.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+16
61.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 16 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
60.9%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
61.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-22
61.7%
Bo Nix sacked by Zachary Carter for a loss of 22 yards to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 30
OWN 42
0
68.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 28TD
1 play · 88 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
89.6%
Lamical Perine run for 88 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1710% → 8%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
88.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 5 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
88.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
89.0%
Bo Nix run for 10 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
89.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-6
88.9%
Bo Nix sacked by James Houston IV for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
91.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 12
OWN 45
+6
91.9%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Fla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 30PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 2:3394% → 97%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
93.6%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
93.7%
Josh Hammond run for 6 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
93.8%
Lucas Krull pass complete to Kyle Trask for 4 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
95.8%
Kyle Trask run for 2 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
96.2%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
96.8%
Kyle Trask run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
96.9%
Tommy Townsend punt for 25 yds, downed at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 31INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:423% → 3%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
97.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Malik Miller for 10 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
97.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Malik Miller for 12 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.2%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Marco Wilson return for no gain to the Fla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:2898% → 99%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.5%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
97.8%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+1
98.0%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
98.7%
Tommy Townsend punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · 15 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
97.6%
Kam Martin run for 15 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:04
Lamical Perine run for 88 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
+20.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:28
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the Aub 46
-10.7
TD · Q2 10:23
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com