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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadTOW aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreTOW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:19 · Shane McDonough punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Hammond at the Fla 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- MISSED FG · Q2 7:54: Aidan O'Neill 32 yd FG MISSED — TOW win probability +0.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:46: Kyle Trask run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 9:31: Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob Copeland, broken up by Coby Tippett — FLA win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:19: Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:50: Dameon Pierce run for 37 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q2 14:55FLA 4th & 6 at TOW 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call96.6%66% to makePunt96.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 7:54TOW 4th & 3 at FLA 15, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.4%51% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%−0.183% to makePunt3.3%−1.0average punt
- Q2 1:11TOW 4th & 14 at TOW 47, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q3 13:22FLA 4th & 12 at TOW 46, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.323% to convertField goal96.3%−0.423% to makePuntTheir call96.7%average punt
- Q3 9:19TOW 4th & 18 at TOW 17, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q4 14:08TOW 4th & 22 at FLA 30, down 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.28% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%56% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:47TOW 4th & 10 at TOW 42, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:04FLA 4th & 3 at TOW 42, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.130% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 9:28FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:46FLA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:19FLA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:50FLA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:47FLA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFLADrive 1TD13 plays · 82 yds · 5:3298% → 98%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+12
98.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 12 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
98.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 18 yds to the Tows 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
98.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 5 yds to the Tows 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+14
98.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 14 yds to the Tows 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+6
98.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 6 yds to the Tows 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 2FUMBLE14 plays · 57 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
97.5%
Thaenrat,Y. rush over right tackle for 2 yards to the UF47 (Burney,A.;Reese II,D.), PENALTY TOWSON illegal formation 5 yards to the TOWSON46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+20
97.6%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Ryan Rutkowski for 20 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-3
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla David Reese IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FG8 plays · 50 yds · 3:4497% → 97%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+32
97.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 32 yds to the Tows 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-7
97.0%
Kyle Trask sacked by Christian Dixon for a loss of 7 yards to the Tows 25 Kyle Trask fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 4MISSED FG15 plays · 69 yds · 6:554% → 5%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
96.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Tows 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+23
96.5%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 23 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 2
OPP 14
-1
96.2%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Jason Epps for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
96.3%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Ryan Rutkowski, broken up by Jaydon HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:0896% → 98%
Q2 7:54
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
95.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 7 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
95.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
95.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 13 yds to the Tows 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
95.9%
Trask,K. deep pass incomplete to Jefferson,V., PENALTY TOWSON pass interference (Javier,R.) 11 yards to the TOWSON2, 1ST DOWN UF, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 6PUNT12 plays · 22 yds · 2:353% → 3%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
96.9%
Tom Flacco sacked by Trey Dean III and Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 8 yards to the Tows 17Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+13
97.0%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Caleb Smith for 13 yds to the Tows 30Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
96.9%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Darian Street for 6 yds to the Tows 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
96.7%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Darian Street for 4 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-8
96.5%
Tom Flacco sacked by Jeremiah Moon and David Reese II for a loss of 8 yards to the Tows 47Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
96.9%
Shane McDonough punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Josh Hammond at the Fla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
TOWDrive 8INT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards to the Tows 12 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tows Yeedee Thaenrat , return for 8 yds to the Tows 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+4
96.9%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Adrian Feliz-Platt for 4 yds to the Tows 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+2
96.9%
Tom Flacco pass intercepted Donovan Stiner return for 2 yds to the Fla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
96.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 19 yds to the Tows 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
96.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 5 yds to the Tows 39Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-6
96.8%
Kyle Trask sacked by Bryce Carter for a loss of 6 yards to the Tows 45Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
96.4%
Tommy Townsend punt for 36 yds, fair catch by D'Ago Hunter at the Tows 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 10INT3 plays · 13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
FLADrive 11TD3 plays · 7 yds · 0:1298% → 99%
TOWDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:002% → 1%
FLADrive 13TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:2899% → 100%
TOWDrive 14MISSED FG15 plays · 55 yds · 5:370% → 0%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Darian Street, broken up by Jaydon HillSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
99.7%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Darian Street for 9 yds to the Tows 24Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+8
99.7%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 8 yds to the Tows 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+6
99.7%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Daniel Thompson IV for 6 yds to the Tows 33Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+25
99.7%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 25 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+10
99.6%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Darian Street for 10 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.6%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Ryan Rutkowski, broken up by Kaiir ElamSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-14
99.9%
Tom Flacco sacked by Brad Stewart Jr. and Mohamoud Diabate for a loss of 14 yards to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 22
OPP 30
+47
99.9%
Aidan O'Neill 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Adam Shuler Donovan Stiner return for no gain to the Fla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD10 plays · 69 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q4 14:08
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+16
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 16 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 21 yds to the Tows 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
Jones,E. crossing pass incomplete to Moon,J. (Brown,S.), PENALTY TOWSON pass interference (Brown,S.) 4 yards to the TOWSON2, 1ST DOWN UF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
FLADrive 17DOWNS12 plays · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:04
2ND & 9
OWN 4
-1
99.9%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 6 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (Adam Shuler) to the Fla 3Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+25
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 25 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 4 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 6 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Jacob Copeland, broken up by S.J. Brown IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 18Uncategorized4 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+11
100.0%
Ryan Stover pass complete to D'Ago Hunter for 11 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:46
Kyle Trask run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q3 9:19
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
+1.2
MISSED FG · Q2 7:54
Aidan O'Neill 32 yd FG MISSED
-0.9