View as
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreTENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Fla 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 12:03: Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 17 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST down — FLA win probability +1.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Lamical Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +5.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:24: Brent Cimaglia 40 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +1.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:11: Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 29 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +7.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:31: Dameon Pierce run for 10 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 1:19FLA 4th & 3 at TENN 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.3%52% to convertField goal81.0%−0.356% to makePunt80.5%−0.7average punt
- Q2 10:02FLA 4th & 5 at TENN 5, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snapGo for it80.7%33% to convertField goalTheir call80.7%−<0.192% to makePunt77.5%−3.2average punt
- Q2 7:46TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snapGo for it16.1%−1.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q2 5:51FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 36, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it80.7%−1.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.8%average punt
- Q2 4:56TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.1%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q2 0:00FLA 4th & 1 at TENN 1, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.4%59% to convertField goal82.8%−2.594% to makePunt77.8%−7.6average punt
- Q3 11:24TENN 4th & 13 at FLA 23, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snapGo for it7.2%−1.319% to convertField goalTheir call8.4%70% to makePunt4.3%−4.2average punt
- Q3 4:12TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q4 9:24TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:01FLA 4th & 4 at TENN 30, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.156% to makePunt99.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:21FLA 4th & 4 at TENN 19, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.177% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:44FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00FLA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:11FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:31FLA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFLADrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0281% → 82%
TENNDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 2:3819% → 19%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+27
81.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 27 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
81.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Austin Pope for 5 yds to the Tenn 37 TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Tenn 48Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+2
81.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 2 yds to the Fla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FUMBLE4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4181% → 81%
Q1 8:55
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-9
81.1%
Davis, Malik rush for 6 yards to the FLORIDA24, fumble forced by Warrior, Nigel, fumble by Davis, Malik recovered by FLORIDA TEAM at FLORIDA21, PENALTY FLORIDA holding 9 yards to the FLORIDA9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+21
81.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 21 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
81.3%
Kyle Trask sacked by Daniel Bituli for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 19 Kyle Trask fumbled, recovered by Tenn Henry To'o To'o , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4INT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5920% → 20%
FLADrive 5DOWNS9 plays · 51 yds · 3:5381% → 81%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
81.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 15 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6INT9 plays · 11 yds · 3:5520% → 20%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-15
80.3%
Chandler, Ty rush for 6 yards to the TENNESSEE35, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding 15 yards to the TENNESSEE14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 27
OWN 12
+10
80.5%
Guarantano, Jarrett pass complete to Palmer, Josh for 9 yards to the TENNESSEE21, PENALTY FLORIDA holding 10 yards to the TENNESSEE22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+19
80.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 19 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
80.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 4 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
79.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted Marco Wilson return for no gain to the Tenn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7FG6 plays · 41 yds · 2:0182% → 82%
TENNDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0718% → 17%
Q2 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
81.6%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Luke Ancrum for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+10
82.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 40 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 10 yds to the Fla 33 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Fla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5582% → 81%
TENNDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5118% → 17%
FLADrive 11END OF HALF12 plays · 61 yds · 4:3582% → 89%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
82.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 16 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
82.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 8 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+10
82.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 10 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
83.3%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDA holding 10 yards to the TENNESSEE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+24
83.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 24 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
84.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 4 yds to the Tenn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FG12 plays · 52 yds · 3:2110% → 12%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
89.7%
Brian Maurer pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 7 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+22
89.3%
Brian Maurer pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 22 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
88.9%
Brian Maurer sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 37Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+17
90.4%
Brian Maurer pass complete to Josh Palmer for 17 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-3
90.2%
Brian Maurer sacked by Jeremiah Moon for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0987% → 97%
Q3 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
87.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 14 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
88.9%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the FLORIDA 47 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
96.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 29 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:104% → 4%
Q3 8:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Brian Maurer pass intercepted Amari Burney return for no gain to the Tenn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15INT3 plays · -3 yds · 1:1997% → 97%
TENNDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:424% → 3%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
96.2%
Brian Maurer pass complete to Brian Maurer for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 13Similar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+24
96.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the FLORIDA 27 TENNESSEE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Fla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17INT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2697% → 99%
Q3 2:35
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+6
98.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
98.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 11 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.8%
Kyle Trask pass intercepted, touchback. Alontae Taylor return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18FUMBLE5 plays · 45 yds · 1:102% → 2%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
97.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 7 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
98.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 27 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-1
98.0%
Eric Gray run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 36 Eric Gray fumbled, forced by Amari Burney, recovered by Fla Amari BurneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD8 plays · 64 yds · 3:1299% → 100%
TENNDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Khris Bogle and Marlon Dunlap Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21FG14 plays · 46 yds · 6:44100% → 100%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 1 yd to the Fla 36Similar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 5 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22END OF GAME6 plays · 27 yds · 1:540% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:11
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 29 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q2 0:00
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
+5.7
FG · Q3 11:24
Brent Cimaglia 40 yd FG GOOD
-1.9