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FLA

Florida 29 at Kentucky 21

UK
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:35 · Max Duffy punt for 63 yds, downed at the Fla 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior−5.7Home team on offense+10.0Garbage-time factor+5.4Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:46: Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +8.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:39: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 13 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +13.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:41: Lamical Perine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FLA win probability +23.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:11: Kyle Trask run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FLA win probability +32.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:33: Josh Hammond run for 76 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +21.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q2 2:37FLA 4th & 2 at UK 10, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%−1.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−8.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 0:11UK 4th & 10 at UK 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  3. Q3 7:50FLA 4th & 4 at UK 15, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−11.1
    average punt
  4. Q3 3:21FLA 4th & 1 at UK 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−3.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q4 14:56UK 4th & 1 at FLA 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−3.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q4 10:35UK 4th & 2 at UK 33, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 7:36FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 48, down 5
    Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 0:54UK 4th & 1 at FLA 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−17.1
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−41.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:13UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:27FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:16UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:46UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:39UK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:41FLA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:11FLA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    58.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:33FLA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:1679% → 78%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.2%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
21.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 18 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
21.6%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+15
21.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 15 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
22.1%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Tyrell Ajian return for 22 yds to the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0622% → 23%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.4%
Sawyer Smith run for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
22.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 5 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
23.0%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 31 Sawyer Smith fumbled, recovered by Fla Brad Stewart Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:5677% → 78%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
22.6%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+1
22.8%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Kent 27Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+9
23.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 9 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
23.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 6 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-1
23.5%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 13Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+5
23.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
23.9%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 0
OPP 10
+5
24.0%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete to Grimes, Trevon, PENALTY KENTUCKY targeting (Corker, Yusuf) 5 yards to the KENTUCKY5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA. Corker ejected for targeting.Similar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
24.1%
Franks, Feleipe rush for 5 yards to the KENTUCKY0, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Zipperer, Keon) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
24.2%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
22.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 15 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 7:0023% → 31%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
23.1%
Smith, Sawyer pass complete to Bowden Jr., Lynn for 5 yards to the KENTUCKY26, PENALTY KENTUCKY ineligible downfield on pass (Rigg, Justin) 5 yards to the KENTUCKY16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+2
23.1%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 13
OWN 18
-8
23.2%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+23
23.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 23 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
23.7%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
23.8%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+10
23.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 10 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
24.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 18 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
25.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 7 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+3
25.7%
Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
25.9%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
26.0%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for no gain to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+26
30.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 26 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:2771% → 72%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
28.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 31 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
27.6%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Jordan Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 46 Feleipe Franks fumbled, forced by Jordan Wright, recovered by Kent Taj Dodson at the Kent 46.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:5231% → 44%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
31.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 5 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
31.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Justin Rigg for 6 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
32.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 5 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
32.7%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 5 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
33.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Drew Schlegel for 12 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
33.8%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
34.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+5
34.2%
Sawyer Smith run for 5 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
35.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 10 yds to the Fla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.8%
Smoke, Kavosiey rush for no gain to the FLORIDA1, PENALTY FLORIDA substitution infraction 0 yards to the FLORIDA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.4%
Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:0259% → 56%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 9 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
40.6%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
41.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 32 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
39.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 9 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-9
40.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Kent 20 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jean Delance) to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
40.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+12
42.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 12 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
40.4%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-1
41.0%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 16Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+6
42.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 6 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
43.7%
Evan McPherson 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:1847% → 49%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
47.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Asim Rose for 12 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
47.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
47.7%
Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+9
48.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 9 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
51.5%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
50.8%
Asim Rose run for no gain to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
49.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
48.5%
Max Duffy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
50.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10INT
11 plays · 57 yds · 5:0351% → 62%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.0%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
51.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 8 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
52.2%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
53.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Justin Rigg for 23 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
55.7%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
56.3%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+21
56.8%
Asim Rose run for 21 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
58.8%
Rose, Asim rush for 5 yards to the FLORIDA8, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Kinnard, Darian) 10 yards to the FLORIDA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+5
59.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Justin Rigg for 5 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+72
61.6%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Shawn Davis return for 72 yds to the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5651% → 52%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
49.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-15
49.9%
Franks, Feleipe pass complete to Jefferson, Van for 9 yards to the KENTUCKY12, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference 15 yards to the KENTUCKY36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 25
OPP 36
+8
53.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 8 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 17
OPP 28
+13
55.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 13 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
48.3%
Evan McPherson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0453% → 73%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
53.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 16 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
55.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 1
50
+3
57.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
58.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+34
59.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 21 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Targeting (Donovan Stiner) to the Fla 13 for a 1ST down. Stiner ejected for targeting.Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
73.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 13 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:1430% → 27%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Malik DavisSimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+28
70.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 13 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jordan Wright) to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
66.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 8 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
67.4%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
68.7%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
73.0%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:2577% → 80%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
76.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Justin Rigg) to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+1
75.6%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+6
76.4%
Sawyer Smith run for 6 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+13
77.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 13 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
79.5%
Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
80.0%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
80.3%
Asim Rose run for no gain to the Fla 38Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
80.1%
Asim Rose run for no gain to the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:0824% → 49%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
76.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 8 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+14
75.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 14 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
75.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 20 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
74.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 12 yds to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
74.5%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
51.4%
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0066% → 68%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Kavosiey Smoke for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
66.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 4 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
67.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 6 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
68.3%
Max Duffy punt for 63 yds, downed at the Fla 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5437% → 32%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+13
62.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 13 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
62.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 8 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
60.7%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
62.0%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+20
63.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 20 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
58.0%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
63.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+1
65.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 1 yd to the Fla 48Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
67.7%
Tommy Townsend punt for 44 yds, downed at the Kent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:2677% → 83%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
77.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 10 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
79.1%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Logan Stenberg) to the Kent 14Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 14
OWN 14
+4
79.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 4 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
83.0%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Shawn Davis return for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 16 FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:4831% → 70%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
68.7%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Hammond, Josh, PENALTY KENTUCKY pass interference (Mosely, Quandre) 15 yards to the FLORIDA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
64.5%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
66.1%
Trask, Kyle pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the FLORIDA44 (Wright, Jordan;Carter, T.J.), PENALTY KENTUCKY targeting (Carter, T.J.) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA. Carter ejected for targeting.Similar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
64.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 30 yds to the Kent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
62.0%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.0%
Kyle Trask run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20MISSED FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:1245% → 46%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Justin Rigg for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
49.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 8 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
47.4%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
46.9%
Smith, Sawyer pass incomplete to Wagner, Ahmad, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Wilson, Marco) 15 yards to the FLORIDA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
52.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+21
51.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 21 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
56.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 4 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
52.5%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 4 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
48.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 1 yd to the Fla 17Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+35
46.3%
Chance Poore 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:1874% → 96%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
25.9%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
23.3%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+76
3.7%
Josh Hammond run for 76 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22END OF GAME
10 plays · 16 yds · 0:275% → 4%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Keaton UpshawSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Asim Rose for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+10
5.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Justin Rigg for 10 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
4.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
4.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
4.2%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Kaiir Elam return for no gain to the Fla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:11
Kyle Trask run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-32
TD · Q4 12:41
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-23.1
TD · Q4 0:33
Josh Hammond run for 76 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
-21
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com