View as
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreFLA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Kaiir Elam return for no gain to the Fla 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:46: Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +8.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:39: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 13 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK) — UK win probability +13.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:41: Lamical Perine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FLA win probability +23.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 4:11: Kyle Trask run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FLA win probability +32.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:33: Josh Hammond run for 76 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +21.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
- Q2 2:37FLA 4th & 2 at UK 10, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snapGo for it50.0%55% to convertField goalTheir call48.4%−1.688% to makePunt41.4%−8.6average punt
- Q2 0:11UK 4th & 10 at UK 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it52.4%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.0%average punt
- Q3 7:50FLA 4th & 4 at UK 15, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snapGo for it40.4%46% to convertField goalTheir call40.3%−0.183% to makePunt29.3%−11.1average punt
- Q3 3:21FLA 4th & 1 at UK 38, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.6%70% to convertField goal21.6%−3.038% to makePunt21.6%−3.0average punt
- Q4 14:56UK 4th & 1 at FLA 38, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.5%70% to convertField goal79.1%−3.438% to makePunt79.0%−3.5average punt
- Q4 10:35UK 4th & 2 at UK 33, up 5Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 70.1% before the snapGo for it71.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.1%−1.1average punt
- Q4 7:36FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 48, down 5Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snapGo for it26.3%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.9%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:54UK 4th & 1 at FLA 17, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snapGo for it45.5%−17.171% to convertField goalTheir call62.5%80% to makePunt21.1%−41.5average punt
- Q4 0:13UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.9%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 6:27FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.0%97% to makeGo for two69.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:16UK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.2%97% to makeGo for two34.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:46UK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.3%97% to makeGo for two46.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:39UK Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.5%97% to makeGo for two73.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:41FLA Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick35.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call34.6%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 4:11FLA Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick58.8%−0.397% to makeGo for twoTheir call59.0%45% to convert
- Q4 0:33FLA Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two90.1%−2.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFLADrive 1INT6 plays · 38 yds · 2:1679% → 78%
Q1 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
21.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 18 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+15
21.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 15 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
22.1%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Tyrell Ajian return for 22 yds to the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2FUMBLE3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0622% → 23%
FLADrive 3TD11 plays · 31 yds · 4:5677% → 78%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
23.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 6 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+5
23.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 0
OPP 10
+5
24.0%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete to Grimes, Trevon, PENALTY KENTUCKY targeting (Corker, Yusuf) 5 yards to the KENTUCKY5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA. Corker ejected for targeting.Similar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
24.1%
Franks, Feleipe rush for 5 yards to the KENTUCKY0, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Zipperer, Keon) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
22.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 15 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD14 plays · 79 yds · 7:0023% → 31%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
23.1%
Smith, Sawyer pass complete to Bowden Jr., Lynn for 5 yards to the KENTUCKY26, PENALTY KENTUCKY ineligible downfield on pass (Rigg, Justin) 5 yards to the KENTUCKY16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 13
OWN 18
-8
23.2%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+23
23.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 23 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+10
23.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 10 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
24.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 18 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
25.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 7 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+26
30.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 26 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5FUMBLE3 plays · 29 yds · 0:2771% → 72%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
28.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 31 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
27.6%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Jordan Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 46 Feleipe Franks fumbled, forced by Jordan Wright, recovered by Kent Taj Dodson at the Kent 46.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD12 plays · 54 yds · 5:5231% → 44%
Q2 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
31.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Justin Rigg for 6 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
33.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Drew Schlegel for 12 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.8%
Smoke, Kavosiey rush for no gain to the FLORIDA1, PENALTY FLORIDA substitution infraction 0 yards to the FLORIDA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7MISSED FG13 plays · 65 yds · 5:0259% → 56%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 9 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
41.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 32 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
39.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 9 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-9
40.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Kent 20 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jean Delance) to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+12
42.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 12 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+6
42.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 6 yds to the Kent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 2:1847% → 49%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
47.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Asim Rose for 12 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+9
48.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 9 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
48.5%
Max Duffy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10INT11 plays · 57 yds · 5:0351% → 62%
Q3 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
51.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 8 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
53.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Justin Rigg for 23 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
58.8%
Rose, Asim rush for 5 yards to the FLORIDA8, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Kinnard, Darian) 10 yards to the FLORIDA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+5
59.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Justin Rigg for 5 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+72
61.6%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Shawn Davis return for 72 yds to the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11FG5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5651% → 52%
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-15
49.9%
Franks, Feleipe pass complete to Jefferson, Van for 9 yards to the KENTUCKY12, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference 15 yards to the KENTUCKY36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 25
OPP 36
+8
53.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 8 yds to the Kent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0453% → 73%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
55.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+34
59.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 21 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Targeting (Donovan Stiner) to the Fla 13 for a 1ST down. Stiner ejected for targeting.Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
73.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 13 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13DOWNS8 plays · 37 yds · 2:1430% → 27%
Q3 5:21
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+28
70.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 13 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jordan Wright) to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14DOWNS8 plays · 24 yds · 3:2577% → 80%
Q3 2:03
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+13
77.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 13 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD6 plays · 62 yds · 2:0824% → 49%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
76.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 8 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+14
75.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Josh Hammond for 14 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
75.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 20 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
74.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 12 yds to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
51.4%
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0066% → 68%
FLADrive 17PUNT9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5437% → 32%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+13
62.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 13 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
62.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 8 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+20
63.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 20 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18INT4 plays · 10 yds · 1:2677% → 83%
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
83.0%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Shawn Davis return for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 16 FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD6 plays · 66 yds · 1:4831% → 70%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
68.7%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Hammond, Josh, PENALTY KENTUCKY pass interference (Mosely, Quandre) 15 yards to the FLORIDA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
66.1%
Trask, Kyle pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the FLORIDA44 (Wright, Jordan;Carter, T.J.), PENALTY KENTUCKY targeting (Carter, T.J.) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA. Carter ejected for targeting.Similar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
64.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 30 yds to the Kent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.0%
Kyle Trask run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20MISSED FG13 plays · 58 yds · 3:1245% → 46%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Justin Rigg for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
46.9%
Smith, Sawyer pass incomplete to Wagner, Ahmad, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Wilson, Marco) 15 yards to the FLORIDA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+21
51.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 21 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD5 plays · 80 yds · 0:1874% → 96%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:11
Kyle Trask run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-32
TD · Q4 12:41
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-23.1
TD · Q4 0:33
Josh Hammond run for 76 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
-21