Try the model
GAST

Georgia State 38 at Tennessee 30

TENN
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:59 · Oliver Holdenson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+37.7Home team on offense+2.7Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:11: Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 17 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +8.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:30: Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +13.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:05: Brent Cimaglia 31 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +7.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:56: Tra Barnett run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +36.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:45: Dan Ellington run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +19.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 4:13GAST 4th & 23 at GAST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:59GAST 4th & 10 at TENN 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:51TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:43GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.5%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:22TENN 4th & 3 at GAST 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−2.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:35GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−3.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:32TENN 4th & 10 at GAST 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:05TENN 4th & 2 at GAST 14, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.9%−0.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−15.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:37GAST 4th & 5 at TENN 31, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:37TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:55GAST 4th & 9 at TENN 31, up 15
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:00GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:13TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:09TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:11GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:30GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:56GAST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:45GAST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:02TENN Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.7 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.1%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 23 Ty Chandler fumbled, forced by Hardrick Willis, recovered by GeoSt Ed CurneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:455% → 6%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
95.1%
Dan Ellington run for 8 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
95.1%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
95.1%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
95.1%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
95.1%
Dan Ellington run for 8 yds to the Tenn 4Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
94.2%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 7:4294% → 93%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
94.2%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+4
94.2%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+8
94.2%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 8 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
94.2%
Eric Gray run for 6 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
94.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
94.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 7 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
94.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 13 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
94.3%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+9
94.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 9 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
94.3%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+8
94.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 8 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
94.3%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
94.3%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
94.3%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 6 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.3%
Seth Paige run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
92.3%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-12
92.3%
Dan Ellington sacked by Shawn Shamburger for a loss of 12 yards to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 18
OWN 17
-5
92.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (Brandon Wright) to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
92.6%
Brandon Wright punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:5892% → 93%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Dominick Wood-Anderson, broken up by Trajan Stephens-McQueenSimilar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
92.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 9 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
92.1%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
92.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 4 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
93.1%
Ty Chandler run for 31 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:108% → 7%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.5%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
92.5%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+28
92.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 28 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
92.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
92.3%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
92.6%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
92.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 8 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 2
OWN 22
-5
92.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 17Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
92.5%
Eric Gray run for 6 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
92.4%
Tim Jordan run for 2 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
92.5%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 5 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
92.5%
Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cornelius McCoy at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
17 plays · 81 yds · 6:328% → 18%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
91.7%
Dan Ellington run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
91.4%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
91.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by Alontae TaylorSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+9
92.0%
Dan Ellington run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+2
91.7%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
91.4%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
91.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Roger Carter, broken up by Darrell TaylorSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+15
91.6%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to Owens, C. (Warrior,N.), PENALTY UT pass interference (Warrior,N.) 15 yards to the UT42, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
91.0%
Tra Barnett run for 9 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
90.6%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
91.0%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
90.7%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-2
90.6%
Seth Paige run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+12
91.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 12 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
90.6%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the Tenn 17Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
81.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 17 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9FG
16 plays · 73 yds · 3:1186% → 88%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.0%
Eric Gray run for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
86.7%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the Tenn 39 Ty Chandler fumbled, recovered by Tenn Ty Chandler for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
86.6%
Tim Jordan run for 2 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
86.9%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+34
86.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 34 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
87.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Eric GraySimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+15
87.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 15 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
86.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 7 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Eric Gray, broken up by Remy LazarusSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.2%
Guarantano,J. pass intercepted by Lazarus, Remy at the GSU0, Lazarus, Remy return to the GSU0, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Jones, Evan) 1 yards to the GSU2, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
87.9%
Brent Cimaglia 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3014% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.7%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
85.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 6 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
85.3%
Seth Paige run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
84.2%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+12
84.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 12 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
84.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 11 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
83.3%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+15
83.3%
Devin Gentry run for 15 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
70.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
75.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 9 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
77.0%
Tim Jordan run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
77.4%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
77.6%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+1
77.3%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
75.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh Palmer, broken up by Tyler GoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0032% → 28%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
68.3%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
68.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-5
69.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Pat Bartlett) to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
70.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 13
OWN 39
+30
72.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 46 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for 30 yds to the 50 yard line Marquez Callaway fumbled, recovered by Tenn Marquez Callaway , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:0173% → 73%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
50
+6
72.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
73.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+10
72.7%
Ramel Keyton run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
74.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-10
74.6%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Ed Curney for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 20
OPP 41
+10
67.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 10 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
72.6%
Brent Cimaglia 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14FUMBLE
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:3229% → 38%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.7%
Seth Paige run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
70.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 5 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
70.5%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
68.3%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
67.8%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 2
50
+2
67.8%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
67.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 14 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
66.0%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
65.9%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
59.9%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
59.9%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete, broken up by Will IgnontSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-5
61.7%
Dan Ellington sacked by Deandre Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 24 Dan Ellington fumbled, recovered by Tenn LaTrell Bumphus , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15FG
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:1667% → 79%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+54
67.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 54 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
74.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 3 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
74.1%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
72.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Austin Pope for no gain to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
79.4%
Brent Cimaglia 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0925% → 67%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.9%
Seth Paige run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
74.0%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
73.8%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
72.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 14 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
70.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
70.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 14 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
69.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Aubry PayneSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
69.4%
Tra Barnett run for 11 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
32.6%
Tra Barnett run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0048% → 54%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
48.0%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
51.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 4 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
49.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 15 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-12
53.9%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Evan Jones for a loss of 12 yards to the Tenn 39 Jarrett Guarantano fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Jhi'Shawn Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:2572% → 93%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
27.8%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
27.9%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
28.2%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to Pinckney, Sam (Taylor,A.), PENALTY UT 12 men on the field 4 yards to the UT30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
27.8%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
26.9%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
7.1%
Dan Ellington run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
10.0%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Victor Heyward for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 18Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
9.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted Trajan Stephens-McQueen return for no gain to the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3793% → 97%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
6.6%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
6.6%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-3
6.8%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
2.6%
Brandon Wright 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
3.4%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Hardrick Willis for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 18Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
3.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete, broken up by Victor HeywardSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+14
3.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 14 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
3.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5798% → 98%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
1.6%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-1
1.6%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 29Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-2
1.5%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 9
OPP 31
0
1.6%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the Tenn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:531% → 7%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
0.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 27 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
1.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 6 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
1.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+18
1.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 18 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
7.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 18 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
2.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-2
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:56
Tra Barnett run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
-36.8
TD · Q4 4:45
Dan Ellington run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
-19.8
TD · Q3 10:30
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com