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MIA

Miami 20 at Florida 24

FLA
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 24, 2019 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:55 · Lou Hedley punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Pregame prior+10.4Home team on offense−6.9Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:45: Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 25 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +16.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:30: Evan McPherson 27 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +4.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:30: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 8 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +18.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:15: DeeJay Dallas run for 50 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +29.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:18: Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +28.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 9:37MIA 4th & 7 at FLA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:10FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:59MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:20FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.6%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55FLA 4th & 1 at MIA 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−0.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:41MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:26MIA 4th & 7 at FLA 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:53FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 40, up 1
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:35FLA 4th & 17 at MIA 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−1.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:55MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 4, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:35FLA 4th & 5 at MIA 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−1.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:30FLA 4th & 9 at MIA 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−12.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:45MIA 4th & 23 at MIA 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−6.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:20FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 42, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−3.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:40MIA 4th & 1 at FLA 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−5.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−21.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:48MIA 4th & 11 at FLA 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−3.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−19.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:30MIA 4th & 9 at FLA 30, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.5 ptsWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%−3.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−8.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:12MIA 4th & 12 at FLA 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−3.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−6.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:37FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:45MIA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:30FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:15MIA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:18FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 5:0326% → 27%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.3%
K.J. Osborn run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
74.2%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 18 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for no gain to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
73.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 18 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
73.6%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 15 yds to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
73.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-7
73.0%
Jarren Williams sacked by Ventrell Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 24Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+10
73.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 10 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 2
OPP 14
-5
73.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
72.8%
Bubba Baxa 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:4873% → 74%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
72.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
72.7%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+2
72.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+6
72.0%
Tommy Townsend run for 6 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
73.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 66 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 2:0626% → 25%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.6%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-11
73.4%
Jarren Williams sacked by Adam Shuler and Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 17
OWN 19
-6
73.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-6 Yards) to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+8
73.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+4
74.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 4 yds to the Fla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FUMBLE
14 plays · 51 yds · 6:3274% → 75%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
74.1%
Kadarius Toney run for 6 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
74.3%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 47Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
74.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 2 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
73.8%
Kadarius Toney run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
74.2%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete to Swain, Freddie, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Finley, Romeo) 15 yards to the MIAMI33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
74.6%
Dameon Pierce run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 13
OPP 36
-5
73.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Stone Forsythe) to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+12
73.7%
Feleipe Franks run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
74.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 5 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
73.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
74.6%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+1
74.6%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+7
74.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 7 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
74.6%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 9 Feleipe Franks fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Scott PatchanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:3726% → 25%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
73.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (DJ Scaife Jr.) to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+1
73.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 13
OWN 6
0
73.8%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 13
OWN 6
-3
74.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-3 Yards) to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 16
OWN 3
-1
74.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (John Campbell Jr.) to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 17
OWN 2
+5
74.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 12
OWN 7
+7
74.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 40 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 7 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:4274% → 74%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
74.2%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-11
74.1%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 48 Malik Davis fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Shaquille QuartermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4928% → 30%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
71.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 24 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
70.4%
Jarren Williams run for 1 yd to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
70.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 2 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
71.2%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
70.0%
Bubba Baxa 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0773% → 72%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
72.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 5 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
73.7%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
73.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Kadarius ToneySimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
72.0%
Tommy Townsend punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
18 plays · 90 yds · 5:5029% → 50%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
71.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+6
70.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
70.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (John Campbell Jr.) to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+16
70.8%
Jeff Thomas run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
70.1%
Jarren Williams sacked by Trey Dean III and Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 17
OWN 24
+2
71.2%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 2 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+18
71.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 18 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
68.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
68.6%
Jarren Williams run for 8 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
66.7%
Jarren Williams run for 1 yd to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
66.0%
Jarren Williams sacked by Ventrell Miller for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+40
69.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 40 yds to the Fla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
65.3%
Williams, Jarren rush for loss of 1 yard to the FLORIDA16, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Campbell Jr., John) 10 yards to the FLORIDA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+25
50.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 25 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:3655% → 57%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
55.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 11 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
56.1%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete to Jefferson, Van, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Forsythe, Stone) 10 yards to the FLORIDA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+15
55.0%
Lamical Perine run for 15 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
56.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 8 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
56.7%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:1556% → 50%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.0%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 25Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
55.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 14 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
56.4%
Lamical Perine run for 10 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
57.7%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete to Grimes, Trevon, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Blades Jr., Al) 15 yards to the MIAMI36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
56.6%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-6
55.3%
Kadarius Toney run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 17
OPP 43
0
51.9%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
49.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 38 yds, downed at the MiaFl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2050% → 48%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
50.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
50.9%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 10
OWN 5
-1
51.6%
Jarren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 11
OWN 4
0
52.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:1055% → 57%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
54.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
54.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
53.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+10
51.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 10 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
55.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 18 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
55.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 1 yd to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
51.9%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
56.7%
Evan McPherson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 3:2247% → 46%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
53.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+17
54.3%
Jarren Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Trey Dean III) to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
48.6%
Jarren Williams sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-10
49.1%
Harris, Cam'Ron rush for 57 yards to the FLORIDA2, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Jordan, Brevin) 10 yards to the MIAMI31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 21
OWN 31
0
51.2%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 21
OWN 31
-2
52.4%
Jarren Williams sacked by James Houston IV for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 23
OWN 29
+8
53.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 49 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 8 yds to the Fla 37 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1052% → 52%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
51.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 13 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
52.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
51.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Lamical PerineSimilar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
49.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 9 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
51.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 46 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for 1 yd to the MiaFl 11 Jeff Thomas fumbled, recovered by Fla Van JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:4559% → 77%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
58.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
58.6%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
77.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 8 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1027% → 56%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.0%
Williams, Jarren pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference 4 yards to the MIAMI29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
72.3%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 10 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
70.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+15
73.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
50
+50
43.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 50 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4649% → 49%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
49.4%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+22
48.6%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Amari Carter return for 22 yds to the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:0260% → 62%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
39.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-1
37.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+6
39.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 6 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 1
OPP 12
-6
41.5%
Bubba Baxa run for 4 yds to the Fla 12 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+11
42.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (11 Yards) to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
36.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
33.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the Fla 11Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
34.8%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+27
38.2%
Bubba Baxa 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1243% → 80%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+65
42.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 65 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
50.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 2 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
50.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 10 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3029% → 26%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
71.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
50
-1
67.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+20
69.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 20 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
64.6%
Tate Martell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
64.7%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+2
71.3%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 2 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 9
OPP 30
-6
74.1%
Jarren Williams sacked by Marlon Dunlap Jr. and Jeremiah Moon for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
86.4%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Romeo Finley return for 19 yds to the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23DOWNS
17 plays · -2 yds · 4:0834% → 16%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
66.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
69.6%
Osborn, K.J. rush for loss of 1 yard to the FLORIDA41, fumble by Osborn, K.J. recovered by MIAMI at FLORIDA41, PENALTY MIAMI illegal block 15 yards to the MIAMI45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 25
OWN 45
-1
74.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 26
OWN 44
+4
76.1%
Jarren Williams sacked by Trey Dean III for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 48 Jarren Williams fumbled, recovered by MiaFl DeeJay Dallas , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 22
OWN 48
-5
78.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 27
OWN 43
-7
79.0%
Jarren Williams sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 34
OPP 35
+14
85.2%
Williams, Jarren pass incomplete to Thomas, Jeff, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference 14 yards to the FLORIDA21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
78.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
83.0%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+15
84.6%
Williams, Jarren pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Dean III, Trey) 15 yards to the FLORIDA36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
78.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 12 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
73.9%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
75.8%
Jarren Williams sacked by Kyree Campbell for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 26 Jarren Williams fumbled, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
80.3%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 12
OPP 26
0
83.8%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:15
DeeJay Dallas run for 50 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)
-29.9
TD · Q4 8:18
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
+28.8
TD · Q3 0:30
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 8 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
+18.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com