Try the model
HAW

Hawai'i 43 at Colorado State 34

CSU
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 25, 2018 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:22 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 yds , Cedric Byrd returns for 3 yds to the ColSt 14 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation (Josh Watson) to the ColSt 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+21.8Home team on offense−7.3Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:28: Cole McDonald run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +22.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:48: Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 19 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +19.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:08: K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 58 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CSU win probability +13.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:15: K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +16.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:42: K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +25.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 10:02HAW 4th & 4 at CSU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:18HAW 4th & 3 at CSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00HAW 4th & 2 at CSU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:32CSU 4th & 13 at HAW 36, down 9
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:59HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 39, up 9
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:22CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 11, down 9
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:43CSU 4th & 6 at HAW 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−3.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:59CSU 4th & 9 at HAW 30, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:45HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 36, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:26CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−3.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:33HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 48, up 17
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:42HAW 4th & 12 at CSU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−10.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:44HAW 4th & 4 at CSU 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:02HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:26CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:32HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28HAW Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:48HAW Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:35HAW Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:20CSU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:08CSU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:15CSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:42CSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5813% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.6%
HAWAII Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
86.6%
Fred Holly III run for 2 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
86.6%
Cole McDonald run for 8 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
86.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
86.6%
Fred Holly III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+8
86.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 8 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+13
86.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 13 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
86.6%
Cole McDonald run for 2 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.6%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric ByrdSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
86.6%
Dayton Furuta run for 4 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+26
86.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 26 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
16 plays · 85 yds · 4:2684% → 84%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
84.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 3 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
84.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+12
83.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 12 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
84.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
84.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
84.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 2 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
84.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 11 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
84.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
84.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 5 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
84.4%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, P., PENALTY CSU holding (MCBRIDE, T.) 10 yards to the UH48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+12
84.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 12 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
84.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+26
84.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 26 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
84.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
84.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:0817% → 20%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.4%
Dayton Furuta run for 12 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
83.3%
Dayton Furuta run for 5 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+9
83.0%
Fred Holly III run for 9 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
82.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 18 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
82.7%
Cole McDonald run for 21 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
82.7%
Fred Holly III run for 4 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
82.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 5 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
82.9%
Fred Holly III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 3Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
80.5%
Ryan Meskell 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
80.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+5
81.1%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (Zeno Choi) to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
80.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass intercepted Eugene Ford return for no gain to the Hawa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:5320% → 27%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
80.1%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Cedric Byrd) to the Hawa 28Similar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+3
80.4%
Fred Holly III run for 3 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+20
79.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 20 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
78.9%
Cole McDonald run for 8 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+4
78.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 4 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd, broken up by Jordan FogalSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
79.0%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+14
79.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Dayton Furuta for 14 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-1
78.9%
Dayton Furuta run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+17
79.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 17 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
72.8%
Cole McDonald run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q2 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
72.8%
Stan Gaudion pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
73.3%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
72.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 3 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
73.2%
Marcus McElroy run for 19 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
74.3%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
74.3%
Marcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
74.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 4 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
74.9%
MATTHEWS, I. rush for no gain to the UH33 (HICKS, Kalen;PAVIHI, Penei), PENALTY CSU holding (WESLEY, B.) 10 yards to the UH43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 20
OPP 43
-2
73.8%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 45Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 22
OPP 45
+5
73.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 5 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+4
73.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 4 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 13
OPP 36
0
72.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4634% → 35%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
65.6%
MCDONALD, Cole pass incomplete to BYRD, Cedric, QB hurry by WATSON, J., PENALTY UH holding off-setting, PENALTY CSU offside off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
67.8%
Fred Holly III run for 5 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
67.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 8 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
66.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 7 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-1
66.4%
Dayton Furuta run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 39Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
63.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Anthony HawkinsSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+58
64.6%
Stan Gaudion punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLOST 5 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Max McDonald) to the ColSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2465% → 63%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
65.0%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+6
65.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 6 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+2
64.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 2
OWN 11
+3
62.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 yds , Cedric Byrd returns for 3 yds to the ColSt 14 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation (Josh Watson) to the ColSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5435% → 59%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
64.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 17 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
64.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Dayton Furuta for 8 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+6
63.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 6 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
63.3%
Dayton Furuta run for 9 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 1
OPP 6
0
64.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Josh WatsonSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
41.4%
Cole McDonald run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10MISSED FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:2052% → 53%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
52.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 16 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
52.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 4 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+12
53.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 12 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+45
52.8%
Wyatt Bryan 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
47.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+4
47.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 4 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+2
47.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
47.5%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass incomplete to JOHNSON, O. (FORD, Eugene), PENALTY UH pass interference (FORD, Eugene) 15 yards to the CSU34, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
48.1%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass incomplete to JOHNSON, O., PENALTY CSU holding (TAYLOR, J.) 10 yards to the CSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+6
47.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 6 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 30
0
47.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Izzy Matthews, broken up by Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
46.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+2
46.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds , JoJo Ward returns for 2 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3462% → 88%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.4%
Fred Holly III run for 3 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
38.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 8 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
37.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Fred Holly III for 23 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
36.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric ByrdSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
32.2%
Cole McDonald run for 15 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
31.3%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+12
31.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 12 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+19
11.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 19 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13MISSED FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:4416% → 12%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
16.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Rojesterman Farris IISimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
16.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+3
16.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 3 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
16.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+17
17.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Brenden Fulton for 17 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
17.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
17.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
17.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+14
17.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Griffin Hammer for 14 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
18.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
18.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Eugene FordSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
18.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Izzy MatthewsSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
12.0%
Wyatt Bryan 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:2492% → 95%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
8.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 13 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
7.8%
Cole McDonald run for 2 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+55
4.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 55 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:153% → 10%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+69
2.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 69 yds to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
3.2%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 7Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
9.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:2894% → 96%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
5.6%
Fred Holly III run for 11 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
5.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
5.4%
Cole McDonald sacked by Devin Phillips and Richard King for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 36Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
4.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
4.4%
Ben Scruton punt for 36 yds, downed at the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:247% → 20%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
6.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 14 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
20.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 58 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0489% → 90%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
10.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 16 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
10.6%
Fred Holly III run for 1 yd to the Hawa 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+22
10.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 22 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
9.8%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+3
9.9%
Dayton Furuta run for 3 yds to the ColSt 42 Dayton Furuta fumbled, forced by Braylin Scott, recovered by ColSt Josh WatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
15.1%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass incomplete, PENALTY CSU holding (KNOX, B.) 10 yards to the CSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+3
13.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
13.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 17
OWN 35
0
13.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Izzy MatthewsSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 17
OWN 35
+40
13.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds, fair catch by JoJo Ward at the COLOST 15 COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Hawa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:5193% → 90%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.7%
Cole McDonald run for 2 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
6.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Fred Holly III for 15 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
6.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
6.2%
Fred Holly III run for 2 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+4
6.3%
Fred Holly III run for 4 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
9.9%
Stan Gaudion punt for 51 yds, downed at the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 99 yds · 1:067% → 25%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+37
7.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 37 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
7.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
50
+24
7.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 24 yds to the Hawa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
24.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:3390% → 96%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
9.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 50 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
7.5%
MCDONALD, Cole pass incomplete to URSUA, John, PENALTY CSU pass interference (HICKS, J.) 15 yards to the CSU10, 1ST DOWN UH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
7.0%
Fred Holly III run for 3 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
6.8%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Anthony HawkinsSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 0
OPP 7
-5
6.6%
HAWAII Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 12Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
8.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown, broken up by V.J. BanksSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
3.9%
Ryan Meskell 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:0011% → 41%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
10.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 22 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
11.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
11.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 9 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+15
13.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 15 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
16.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-15
15.4%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass complete to WILLIAMS, P. for 18 yards to the UH11, PENALTY CSU pass interference (WILLIAMS, P.) 15 yards to the UH44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 25
OPP 44
0
11.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 25
OPP 44
+10
10.7%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass complete to WILLIAMS, P. for 10 yards to the UH34 (PAVIHI, Penei;FORD, Eugene), PENALTY UH holding (MANUWAI, Makai) 10 yards to the UH34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+25
11.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 25 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
37.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
41.4%
HAWAII Penalty, ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:5884% → 98%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
15.7%
Fred Holly III run for 21 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
13.8%
Fred Holly III run for 2 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
13.8%
Cole McDonald run for 5 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+10
9.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 10 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
8.4%
Cole McDonald run for 14 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
8.1%
Fred Holly III run for 2 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+4
8.1%
Cole McDonald run for 4 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
8.7%
Cole McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
2.3%
Ryan Meskell 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 62 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
3.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Griffin Hammer for 5 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+19
3.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 19 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
4.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 10 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
4.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
4.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+28
4.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 28 yds to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:42
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+25.7
TD · Q2 0:28
Cole McDonald run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-22.7
TD · Q3 8:48
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 19 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-19.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com