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GASO

Georgia Southern 35 at Georgia State 14

GAST
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:42 · Magill Bauerle punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense−43.0Score differential−24.6Pregame prior−9.7Garbage-time factor−13.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:30: Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 38 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +6.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Tyler Bass 49 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +4.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:10: Shai Werts run for 18 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass pass to Deshon Cooper for Two-Point Conversion) — GASO win probability +11.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:32: Shai Werts pass complete to Colby Ransom for 58 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +6.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:45: Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 7 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +1.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:09GASO 4th & 8 at GAST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:18GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55GASO 4th & 3 at GAST 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:31GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:40GASO 4th & 11 at GAST 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:42GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:18GAST 4th & 7 at GASO 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:10GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:32GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:42GASO 4th & 13 at GASO 49, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:18GAST 4th & 1 at GASO 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:45GAST 4th & 7 at GASO 7, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 0 of 2GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 4:30GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:10GASO Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:32GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:45GAST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:07GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:21GAST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
24.4%
Devin Gentry run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
24.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
24.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 6 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+16
24.4%
Brandon Wright punt for 46 yds , Tyler Bass returns for 16 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
25.2%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
25.1%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
25.1%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
25.1%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-2
25.1%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 9
50
+1
25.2%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+35
25.2%
Magill Bauerle punt for 35 yds , Penny Hart returns for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
27.2%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to Jones, Tamir, PENALTY GS pass interference (S. Freeman) 8 yards to the GSU21, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
27.2%
Dan Ellington run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
27.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny Hart, broken up by Jay BowdrySimilar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+5
27.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 5 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
27.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 6 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
27.6%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-2
27.5%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+3
27.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 58 yds , Wesley Kennedy III returns for 3 yds to the GeoSo 43 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal block (2 Yards) to the GeoSo 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4FG
12 plays · 76 yds · 6:1571% → 71%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
28.7%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 4Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
28.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for no gain to the GeoSo 4Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+14
29.0%
Shai Werts run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
28.5%
Wesley Fields run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
28.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
50
+5
27.8%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+17
27.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
28.3%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
28.3%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+2
28.8%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
28.7%
Tyler Bass 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tucker Gregg for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
29.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
29.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
28.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 54 yds , Wesley Kennedy III returns for no gain to the GeoSo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
30.0%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Wesley Kennedy IIISimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
30.1%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
30.6%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Mark MichaudSimilar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
31.1%
Magill Bauerle punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
31.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
31.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
32.2%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to McCoy, C., PENALTY GSU illegal formation 5 yards to the GSU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+15
30.9%
Ellington, Dan rush for loss of 2 yards to the GSU44 (T. Reese), PENALTY GS face mask (R. Johnson) 15 yards to the GS39, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
32.3%
Dan Ellington pass intercepted Lane Ecton return for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32 GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (-14 Yards) to the GeoSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
29.2%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+2
30.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+2
30.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
31.2%
Magill Bauerle punt for 38 yds, downed at the GeoSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-6
30.7%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 16
OWN 1
+4
30.6%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 12
OWN 5
0
29.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Demarcus KirkSimilar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 12
OWN 5
0
29.5%
Brandon Wright punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 2:4071% → 78%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
29.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
29.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 2 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+7
29.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
29.0%
Matt LaRoche run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+38
22.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 38 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11MISSED FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 4:1224% → 22%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Demarcus Kirk for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
23.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tamir Jones for 7 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
24.1%
Seth Paige run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+15
24.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tucker Gregg for 15 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
25.5%
Seth Paige run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
26.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
26.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 8 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-5
23.9%
Dan Ellington sacked by Ian Bush for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+62
22.1%
Brandon Wright 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Monquavion Brinson return for no gain to the GeoSt 42 Monquavion Brinson return for 43 yds to the GeoSt 0 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Rashad Byrd) to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12FG
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:1879% → 83%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
20.9%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 1 yd to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+9
21.0%
Shai Werts run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+49
16.6%
Tyler Bass 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:5082% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
18.1%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+17
18.1%
Wesley Fields run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
18.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
17.9%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
18.3%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
17.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+6
18.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
17.9%
Logan Wright run for no gain to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
6.4%
Shai Werts run for 18 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass pass to Deshon Cooper for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.5%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
9.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Kindle VildorSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
9.5%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
9.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
3.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to Colby Ransom for 58 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
4.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan Ifedi, broken up by Kindle VildorSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
4.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Penny Hart) to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
4.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
4.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5497% → 98%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
2.8%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
2.8%
Shai Werts run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+14
2.4%
Shai Werts run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
1.4%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-9
1.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+3
1.5%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
1.7%
Magill Bauerle punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD
19 plays · 90 yds · 8:492% → 2%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
1.8%
Seth Paige run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+26
1.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 26 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
1.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 8 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
1.8%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
50
+2
2.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-9
2.0%
Dan Ellington sacked by Ian Bush for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+27
1.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 27 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
1.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
1.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+6
1.5%
Seth Paige run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q4 13:18
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+5
0.5%
Demarcus Kirk run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
0.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
0.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tucker Gregg for 4 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+6
0.5%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.7%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
0.7%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 7 Dan Ellington fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Dan EllingtonSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 7 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3899% → 100%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
1.1%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
1.2%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Ellis RichardsonSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
1.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (Brian Miller) to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+18
1.2%
Wesley Fields run for 18 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
0.2%
Wesley Fields run for 63 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the GeoSt 7 (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:460% → 1%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Roger Carter, broken up by Deshon CooperSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
0.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tamir Jones for 5 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
0.2%
Dan Ellington run for 20 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
0.2%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
0.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
0.2%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
0.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
0.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 9 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
0.2%
Seth Paige run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Tamir JonesSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+13
0.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Darius Stubbs for 13 yds to the GeoSo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.1%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tamir Jones for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
0.4%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
0.4%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+12
0.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:10
Shai Werts run for 18 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass pass to Deshon Cooper for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.5
TD · Q3 8:32
Shai Werts pass complete to Colby Ransom for 58 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q2 4:30
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 38 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com