Try the model
ARST

Arkansas State 33 at Texas State 7

TXST
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDSAFETYFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:02 · Chris Kessler 30 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Pregame prior−32.2Home team on offense+0.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:41: Alec Harris run for 57 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK) — TXST win probability +15.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:37: Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13 — ARST win probability +3.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:14: Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 60 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +11.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q3 8:47: Clayton Stewart punt , Justin McInnis returns for 17 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +9.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:52: Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 39 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +6.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 11 at ARST 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%
    62% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:02TXST 4th & 12 at ARST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:47ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 32, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:37TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:06ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12TXST 4th & 12 at ARST 31, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02ARST 4th & 6 at TXST 46, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    75.9%−1.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    77.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:47TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:43TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 23, down 14
    Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:46TXST 4th & 12 at ARST 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:41ARST 4th & 1 at TXST 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:50ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 45, up 23
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:48TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 6, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:06ARST 4th & 4 at TXST 25, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:46ARST 4th & 3 at TXST 13, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:25ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:41TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:14ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:52ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
14.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
14.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
14.5%
Tyler Watts run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+31
14.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Kelton Powell for 31 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
14.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
14.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-3
14.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 27
0
14.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 26 yds, downed at the ArkSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
16.2%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+15
16.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 15 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
16.1%
Kirk Merritt run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 17
OWN 10
0
16.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Clifton Lewis Jr.Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+2
16.1%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 15
OWN 12
0
16.2%
Cody Grace punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:3717% → 19%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
17.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+20
17.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 20 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
17.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
17.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
17.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+9
17.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
17.6%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
17.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 12
OPP 14
0
17.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+30
19.4%
Chris Kessler 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
19.4%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
19.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+19
19.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 19 yds Justin McInnis fumbled, forced by A.J. Krawczyk, recovered by TexSt Nikolas DanielsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
20.7%
Keenen Brown run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 33 Keenen Brown fumbled, forced by B.J. Edmonds, recovered by ArkSt Tajhea ChambersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:4680% → 83%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
19.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
19.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for no gain to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+14
20.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 14 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
19.2%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
19.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 5 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+9
18.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 9 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
18.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Justin Dutton) to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+19
19.1%
Warren Wand run for 19 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
18.9%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
17.2%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:2518% → 18%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.3%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
18.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 14 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
18.8%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Darreon Jackson for 0 yards to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-6
18.7%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Dajon Emory for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 33 Tyler Vitt fumbled, recovered by TexSt Keenen Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 33
0
18.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 33
0
17.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 44 yds, downed at the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
18.8%
Justice Hansen run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
18.3%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
18.5%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
18.9%
Cody Grace punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
19.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Blake Aragon for 15 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
20.5%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
21.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-2
20.9%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
20.0%
Clayton Stewart punt for 30 yds, downed at the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
19.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 20 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
18.6%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
18.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
18.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
19.3%
Cody Grace punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11DOWNS
17 plays · 62 yds · 5:2120% → 20%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
19.8%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
19.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+6
19.7%
Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
20.1%
Tyler Watts run for 12 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
21.1%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+2
20.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+14
20.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, targeting (Kevin Thurmon) to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
21.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
21.7%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 31 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
21.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 7 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
21.7%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
22.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-15
22.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Blake Aragon) to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 20
OPP 39
0
20.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Blake AragonSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 20
OPP 39
+8
20.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 8 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+10
20.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12END OF HALF
12 plays · 46 yds · 1:0181% → 82%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
19.1%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+9
18.1%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
18.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
18.0%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
50
-10
17.9%
Justice Hansen sacked by Jakharious Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 20
OWN 40
0
19.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+14
20.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 14 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+13
18.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 13 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
19.8%
Justice Hansen sacked by Nikolas Daniels for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+1
20.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+6
20.8%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
21.4%
Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
37.2%
Alec Harris run for 57 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 2:2368% → 81%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
32.0%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
31.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+8
33.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 8 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
31.5%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
31.6%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+10
30.9%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
19.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 60 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2022% → 12%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
21.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+1
22.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 1 yd to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
21.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen BrownSimilar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 2
OWN 22
+17
12.2%
Clayton Stewart punt , Justin McInnis returns for 17 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
12.3%
Alec Harris run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+3
12.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 3 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
12.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
12.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 31 , Warren Wand returns for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:3890% → 98%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
10.2%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
10.2%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+18
9.8%
Marcel Murray run for 18 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
9.4%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
9.4%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+39
2.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 39 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
3.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Alec Harris for 11 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
3.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+18
3.8%
Jaylin Nelson run for 18 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.1%
Jaylin Nelson run for no gain to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+16
4.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 16 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
4.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Aaron Brewer) to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+3
4.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
4.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
4.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
4.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 90 yds · 2:1298% → 99%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
2.2%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+7
2.2%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
2.1%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-2
2.1%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+10
1.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 10 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+53
1.4%
Warren Wand run for 53 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
1.3%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.3%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.3%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
1.5%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
1.8%
Alec Harris run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
1.1%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
1.1%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+4
1.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
1.2%
Cody Grace punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
1.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Blake AragonSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-1
1.6%
Jaylin Nelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+4
1.5%
Jaylin Nelson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
1.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 46 yds, downed at the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 5:2099% → 100%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
0.8%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 9
OPP 0
-10
0.7%
Wand, Warren rush over left end for 15 yards to the TXST36, out-of-bounds (Waddy,JaShon;Davis,Ishmael), PENALTY ASU holding (Harris Jr., Andre) 10 yards to the ASU39, NO PLAY, PENALTY ASU HOL declined.Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+30
0.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 30 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
0.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
0.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+4
0.8%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+5
0.9%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 5 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
0.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
0.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 3 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+2
0.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
0.1%
Blake Grupe 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jacob Rowland) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+13
0.1%
Tyler Watts run for 13 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
0.1%
Alec Harris run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
0.1%
Alec Harris run for 9 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-5
0.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jalen Momerelle) to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+16
0.1%
Jaylen Gipson run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
0.2%
Jaylen Gipson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
0.1%
Jaylen Gipson pass complete to Tyler Watts for no gain to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+1
0.1%
LeDarrius Harris run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:41
Alec Harris run for 57 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q3 10:14
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 60 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-11.7
PUNT · Q3 8:47
Clayton Stewart punt , Justin McInnis returns for 17 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com