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GAST

Georgia State 17 at App State 45

APP
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.3APP 98.3%Brandon Wright 52 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 31 · Q3 2:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:42 · Brandon Wright 52 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior+18.5Home team on offense+25.6Score differential+16.9Garbage-time factor+5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.5Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:17: Dan Ellington pass complete to Tamir Jones for 7 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +1.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:11: Chandler Staton 23 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +0.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:16: Zac Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +5.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:27: Dan Ellington pass intercepted for a TD Desmond Franklin return for 26 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +2.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:18: Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 21 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 8:49GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:16GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:14APP 4th & 9 at GAST 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:41GAST 4th & 8 at APP 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:40APP 4th & 9 at APP 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:54GAST 4th & 2 at APP 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:01APP 4th & 3 at GAST 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:11APP 4th & 4 at GAST 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 4 at GAST 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:42GAST 4th & 14 at APP 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:03APP 4th & 2 at GAST 27, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:17GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:54APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:16APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:16APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:27APP Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:18APP Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:04APP Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:20GAST Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:435% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
94.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
94.9%
Dan Ellington run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
94.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 12 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
94.9%
Tra Barnett run for 12 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.9%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny Hart, broken up by Clifton DuckSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
94.9%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+11
94.9%
Dan Ellington run for 11 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
94.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the AppSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
94.9%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tamir Jones for 7 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2393% → 94%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
93.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 21 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
93.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+9
93.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
93.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 39 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
93.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
93.4%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
93.4%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+14
93.5%
Brandon Wright punt for 43 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 14 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:2693% → 93%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
93.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+11
93.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 11 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
93.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
93.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
93.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 7 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (DeAndre Applin) to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
93.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
93.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
93.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 10 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.1%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
93.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
93.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
93.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 62 yds , Clifton Duck returns for no gain to the AppSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:0393% → 92%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+40
92.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 40 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
93.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 5 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+26
93.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 26 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
93.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-2
93.3%
Zac Thomas sacked by Blake Carroll for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+1
92.8%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
92.4%
Chandler Staton 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 38 yds · 4:338% → 8%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.2%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
92.2%
Dan Ellington run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
92.2%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
92.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
91.9%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
92.0%
Darius Stubbs run for no gain to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-10
92.1%
Ellington, Dan rush for 13 yards to the APP42 (Cook, Noel), PENALTY GSU holding (Atkinson, H.) 10 yards to the GSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+21
92.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Darius Stubbs for 21 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
91.0%
Dan Ellington run for 7 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
91.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for no gain to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-5
91.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
91.7%
Brandon Wright punt for 40 yds, downed at the AppSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
91.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 1Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+2
91.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 3Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
91.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Chase MiddletonSimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+7
91.0%
Clayton Howell punt for 56 yds , Penny Hart returns for 7 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
90.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
90.6%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
90.3%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
90.7%
Brandon Wright punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10FG
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:0491% → 91%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
91.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 21 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
91.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-6
91.5%
Zac Thomas sacked by Terry Thomas and Marterious Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+15
90.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
91.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
91.7%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
91.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+19
90.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 19 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
91.4%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Sutton, Corey (Lazarus, Remy), PENALTY GSU personal foul (Lazarus, Remy) 11 yards to the GSU11, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
91.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for no gain to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
91.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
90.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Michael ShawSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
91.2%
Chandler Staton 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4491% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
91.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
91.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
91.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
91.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
91.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 13 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
91.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
91.8%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+5
91.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+33
91.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 33 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:495% → 2%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Devin GentrySimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.3%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+26
98.0%
Dan Ellington pass intercepted for a TD Desmond Franklin return for 26 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 5:452% → 2%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.0%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
98.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-15
98.0%
Ellington, Dan pass complete to Hart, Penny for 38 yards to the APP33 (Franklin, D.;Flory, Anthony), PENALTY GSU illegal helmet contact (Jackson, Jalen) 15 yards to the GSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+33
98.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 33 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
98.0%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
97.9%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.9%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-2
97.9%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+11
98.0%
Dan Ellington run for 11 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
97.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tamir Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
97.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Josh ThomasSimilar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 14
OPP 34
0
98.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Roger Carter, broken up by Desmond FranklinSimilar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+52
98.3%
Brandon Wright 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2499% → 100%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
98.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 12 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
98.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+24
98.6%
Zac Thomas run for 24 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
98.6%
Zac Thomas sacked by Javonte Lain for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+10
99.0%
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+21
99.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 21 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16INT
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+40
99.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 40 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+38
99.9%
Dan Ellington pass intercepted Desmond Franklin return for 38 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:17100% → 100%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
99.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 56 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
99.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 26 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 5 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+14
99.9%
Darius Stubbs run for 14 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
99.9%
Dan Ellington run for 22 yds to the AppSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.9%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 3Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19END OF GAME
15 plays · 57 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Brad Absher for 10 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Collin Reed for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 2
50
+5
99.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+6
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
99.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:16
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q3 8:27
Dan Ellington pass intercepted for a TD Desmond Franklin return for 26 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+2.7
TD · Q1 10:17
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tamir Jones for 7 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)
-1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com