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GAST

Georgia State 22 at Louisiana 36

UL
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Aaron Winchester sacked by Zi'Yon Hill for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+18.1Home team on offense+2.5Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:43: Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 32 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau PAT MISSED) — UL win probability +4.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:14: Aaron Winchester pass complete to Devin Gentry for 13 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +7.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:46: Demarcus Kirk run for 21 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +17.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 14:20: Raymond Calais run for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +12.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:20: Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UL 4th & 3 at GAST 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:43GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:14UL 4th & 7 at GAST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:11GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:37UL 4th & 4 at UL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:24GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:52GAST 4th & 5 at UL 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:43GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:24UL 4th & 11 at GAST 35, up 13
    Close callPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:05GAST 4th & 4 at UL 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:14GAST 4th & 4 at UL 13, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%−0.6
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00GAST 4th & 3 at UL 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−0.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:18UL 4th & 4 at GAST 4, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:30GAST 4th & 1 at UL 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−3.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−5.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:20GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:31UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:43UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:14GAST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:46GAST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:20UL Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:20UL Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:33UL Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:20GAST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.5%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
83.5%
Trey Ragas run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
83.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 7 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
83.5%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Earnest Patterson, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
83.5%
Raymond Calais run for no gain to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
83.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 42 yds, downed at the GeoSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
82.9%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
82.9%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
83.0%
Aaron Winchester pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+8
83.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 45 yds , Ja'Marcus Bradley returns for 8 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
82.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
82.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
82.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for no gain to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
82.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 37 yds, downed at the GeoSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
81.9%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+2
81.9%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
82.0%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Kendall JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 6
OWN 7
-5
82.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 68 yds , Ja'Marcus Bradley returns for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
81.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 5 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
81.3%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
81.1%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
80.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 42 yds, downed at the GeoSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
80.7%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
80.8%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Tra Barnett for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
80.9%
Aaron Winchester pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+7
81.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 57 yds , Ja'Marcus Bradley returns for 7 yds to the LaLaf 41 LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal block (8 Yards) to the LaLaf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
82.8%
Raymond Calais run for 92 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:3917% → 19%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
82.6%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Penny Hart for 7 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
82.3%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.4%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
82.5%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+12
82.6%
Aaron Winchester run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
82.1%
Tra Barnett run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
81.7%
Aaron Winchester run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
81.7%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
81.7%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
81.0%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
81.5%
Brandon Wright 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0982% → 88%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
82.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+17
82.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 17 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
82.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
82.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
82.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
83.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 22 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
87.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 32 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
85.5%
Devin Gentry run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
85.2%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
85.3%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
85.6%
Brandon Wright punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
87.3%
Raymond Calais run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
87.4%
Nunez,Andre deep sideline pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley (White, Quavian), PENALTY GSU pass interference (White, Quavian) 15 yards to the LA41, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
87.9%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
87.9%
Raymond Calais run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
88.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
88.0%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
88.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jamal Bell for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+4
87.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
87.6%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 11
OPP 35
0
87.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 27 yds, downed at the GeoSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:0413% → 21%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
86.7%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+45
86.5%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 45 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
85.6%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
85.4%
Aaron Winchester pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+2
85.7%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Tra Barnett for 2 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+15
87.0%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 15 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
85.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
85.9%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+1
86.6%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Penny Hart for 1 yd to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+13
79.0%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Devin Gentry for 13 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:1283% → 82%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
82.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 13 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.4%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
78.6%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Devin Gentry for 12 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
77.7%
Tra Barnett run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
50
+14
76.3%
Aaron Winchester run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
76.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
76.7%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+8
77.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 29
-7
77.9%
Aaron Winchester sacked by Zi'Yon Hill for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:4581% → 85%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
80.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
81.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+16
81.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 16 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
82.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+2
81.9%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+13
81.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 13 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
82.4%
Raymond Calais run for 20 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
82.4%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jamal BellSimilar
Q3 12:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q3 7:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
85.1%
Kyle Pfau 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3215% → 34%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.7%
Aaron Winchester run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
84.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
83.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 17 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
83.0%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
82.6%
Aaron Winchester run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
84.1%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
85.0%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
83.4%
Aaron Winchester run for no gain to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
83.4%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Roger Carter for 9 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+21
66.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for 21 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2672% → 90%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
72.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Matt Barnes for 2 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
71.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 8 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
73.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 21 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
75.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
77.2%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
89.5%
Raymond Calais run for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.7%
Aaron Winchester run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
86.7%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Devin GentrySimilar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
87.2%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
87.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 2:0489% → 97%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+57
88.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 57 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
90.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
90.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20INT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
95.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Hunter Atkinson) to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+5
95.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
95.2%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
95.4%
Aaron Winchester pass intercepted Michael Jacquet III return for no gain to the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5397% → 99%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
96.8%
Raymond Calais run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
96.9%
Raymond Calais run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
96.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jalen Williams for 10 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
96.9%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.4%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:131% → 4%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.2%
Tra Barnett run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
99.1%
Tra Barnett run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
99.1%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Roger Carter for 15 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
99.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
99.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+10
99.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.5%
Aaron Winchester run for 3 yds for a TD (Aaron Winchester pass to Diondre Champaigne for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23Uncategorized
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
97.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 24 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
97.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+2
97.7%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
97.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+5
97.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Marterious Allen) to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
97.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-1
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:46
Demarcus Kirk run for 21 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)
-17.4
TD · Q4 14:20
Raymond Calais run for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
+12.3
TD · Q2 0:14
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Devin Gentry for 13 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com