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TXST

Texas State 40 at Georgia State 30

GAST
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:37 · Clayton Stewart punt for 38 yds , Penny Hart returns for 48 yds to the TexSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Home team on offense−4.9Pregame prior+13.7Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:31: Willie Jones III pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK) — TXST win probability +11.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:10: Willie Jones III pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 93 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart PAT MISSED) — TXST win probability +17.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:04: Keenen Brown run for 3 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK) — TXST win probability +16.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:44: Aaron Winchester pass complete to Devin Gentry for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +14.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:24: Caleb Twyford run for 13 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK) — TXST win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:23GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:31TXST 4th & 2 at GAST 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:46GAST 4th & 11 at TXST 36, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%
    42% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 39, up 6
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:37TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:07GAST 4th & 6 at TXST 10, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:46TXST 4th & 2 at GAST 2, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−8.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:46GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 48, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 15 at GAST 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:31GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:10GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:37TXST 4th & 1 at GAST 42, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−5.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−4.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:44TXST 4th & 16 at GAST 47, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:15GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 34, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:24GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 41, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:40TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 17, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:09GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:23TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:46TXST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:31TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:10TXST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:04TXST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:44GAST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:24TXST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:53GAST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5171% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.2%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
71.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 7 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
71.2%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
71.2%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
71.2%
Dan Ellington run for 8 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+6
71.2%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
71.2%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
71.2%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+29
72.0%
Tra Barnett run for 29 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4628% → 30%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.6%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.6%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Tyler Watts for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
71.7%
Willie Jones III run for 11 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
71.4%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
71.5%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for 13 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
70.1%
Willie Jones III run for 48 yds for a TD (James Sherman PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.1%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Devin GentrySimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
69.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 34 yds , Hutch White returns for 15 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:4530% → 33%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
69.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-6
69.9%
Keenen Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 16
50
+14
70.4%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Mason Hays for 14 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+3
70.2%
Willie Jones III run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
69.7%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 11 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
69.6%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for 20 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
68.0%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
67.8%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+12
68.1%
Dan Ellington run for 12 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.5%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
68.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+12
67.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Seth Paige for 12 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
68.9%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-2
68.9%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
68.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Tra BarnettSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+3
67.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0836% → 36%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
64.3%
Willie Jones III run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
64.0%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+3
63.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
64.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 58 yds, downed at the GeoSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FUMBLE
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5964% → 63%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
63.8%
Tra Barnett run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+10
63.7%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
63.9%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
63.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 12 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
64.1%
Ellington, Dan rush for no gain to the GSU30, out-of-bounds (LondonII,Bryan), PENALTY GSU holding (Gilmore, S.) 10 yards to the GSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+20
63.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 20 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
62.1%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+13
62.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 13 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
63.1%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
63.0%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+17
62.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 17 yds Cornelius McCoy fumbled, forced by Frankie Griffin, recovered by TexSt JaShon Waddy , return for 11 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0041% → 43%
Q2 8:37
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+48
58.6%
Clayton Stewart punt for 38 yds , Penny Hart returns for 48 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
57.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
57.1%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-3
56.9%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:4661% → 61%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
60.6%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
60.5%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+13
59.2%
Dan Ellington run for 13 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
60.6%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
60.6%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
57.5%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
60.8%
Brandon Wright 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 1:2141% → 45%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+69
58.6%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Tyler Watts for 69 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
54.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
54.7%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
54.8%
Willie Jones III run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
55.5%
James Sherman 19 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Javonte LainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0056% → 58%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
56.2%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+19
55.1%
Dan Ellington run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
57.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
59.0%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
58.8%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
58.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 51 yds, downed at the TexSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
58.2%
Willie Jones III run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.3%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for 15 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
55.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
55.2%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Keenen BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+10
55.6%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 10 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
54.7%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-14
54.8%
Willie Jones III sacked by Marterious Allen for a loss of 14 yards to the GEORGIAST 42 TEXAS STATE Penalty, intentional grounding (Willie Jones III) to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 42
+9
57.6%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 9 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 49
+1
58.7%
Clayton Stewart punt for 33 yds , Penny Hart returns for 1 yd to the GeoSt 18 Penny Hart fumbled, recovered by TexSt Mason HaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4948% → 59%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
52.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
52.0%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 5 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
40.6%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.9%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
41.2%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
39.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-9
38.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 58 yds , Hutch White returns for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 18 TEXAS STATE Penalty, IB (Josh Newman) to the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
2 plays · 97 yds · 2:2158% → 75%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
42.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+93
25.1%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 93 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.9%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
28.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
27.4%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
27.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 36 yds, downed at the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:3378% → 95%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
22.5%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for 13 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
21.7%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 6
OPP 0
0
20.9%
JonesIII,Willie pass complete to Banks,Javen for 30 yards to the GSU17 (Jones, Jaylon), PENALTY TXST IH off-setting, PENALTY GSU pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
21.5%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Elijah Rogers for 4 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
21.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
23.3%
Willie Jones III run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
21.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 34 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
20.9%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
20.9%
Willie Jones III run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
21.1%
JonesIII,Willie rush for loss of 5 yards to the GSU11 (Hunter, Jontrey), PENALTY GSU holding (Applin, DeAndre) 3 yards to the GSU3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.6%
Keenen Brown run for 3 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:207% → 20%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.8%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 4 yds Cornelius McCoy fumbled, forced by Jarron Morris,Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+29
6.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 14 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, targeting (Bryan London II) to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
7.5%
Tra Barnett run for 8 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+4
8.1%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Tra Barnett for 4 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
8.0%
Tra Barnett run for 12 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
8.2%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+1
8.2%
Aaron Winchester run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+10
6.1%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Tamir Jones for 10 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
6.3%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.3%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Devin Gentry for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
15 plays · 28 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
11.5%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
11.5%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 4 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
11.1%
Willie Jones III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
11.0%
Hutch White run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
11.0%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for 5 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
10.8%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 13
OWN 46
0
11.0%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+13
11.1%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 13 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
10.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-9
10.7%
JonesIII,Willie rush for 11 yards to the GSU29 (Curney, Ed), PENALTY TXST holding (Rogers,Elijah) 9 yards to the GSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 18
OPP 49
+4
11.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+3
11.0%
Willie Jones III run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 11
OPP 42
-5
12.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 16
OPP 47
+19
12.0%
Clayton Stewart punt for 37 yds , Penny Hart returns for 19 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
7.5%
Aaron Winchester run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
7.6%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Tra Barnett for 3 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
7.5%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
7.5%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:3095% → 99%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
4.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
4.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+13
0.9%
Caleb Twyford run for 13 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:311% → 4%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.1%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Tamir Jones for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.2%
Aaron Winchester pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
1.2%
Aaron Winchester pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
1.1%
Aaron Winchester run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+14
1.2%
Aaron Winchester run for 14 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
1.3%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Jonathan Ifedi, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
1.2%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 14 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
1.5%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Devin Gentry for 27 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
1.6%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.4%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1398% → 98%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
2.3%
Jaylin Nelson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+4
2.1%
Jaylen Gipson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
2.1%
Jaylen Gipson run for no gain to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
2.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25Uncategorized
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
2.3%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Tra Barnett for 14 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
2.4%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Roger Carter for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
2.4%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Tamir JonesSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+10
2.4%
Aaron Winchester run for 10 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
2.9%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Devin GentrySimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+23
2.7%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Tamir Jones for 23 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:10
Willie Jones III pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 93 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart PAT MISSED)
-17.4
TD · Q3 3:04
Keenen Brown run for 3 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)
-16.5
TD · Q4 13:44
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Devin Gentry for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com