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ARST

Arkansas State 43 at Louisiana 47

UL
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:34 · Rhys Byrns punt for 68 yds, downed at the ArkSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Home team on offense+5.4Pregame prior−5.9Garbage-time factor+1.7Score differential+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:56: Marcel Murray run for 2 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Griffin Riggs) to the LaLaf 8 (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +18.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:51: Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 73 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +32.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:47: Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 53 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UL win probability +27.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:48: Marcel Murray run for 7 yds for a TD (Justice Hansen pass to Warren Wand for Two-Point Conversion) — ARST win probability +35.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:18: Trey Ragas run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +53.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:04ARST 4th & 5 at UL 27, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:26ARST 4th & 22 at UL 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:59UL 4th & 1 at UL 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.3%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:34UL 4th & 16 at UL 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:02UL 4th & 9 at ARST 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:02ARST 4th & 1 at UL 4, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−2.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−9.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:56UL 4th & 12 at UL 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−5.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−2.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:48UL 4th & 5 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.8%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:18ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:04UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:50ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:39UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:34ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:13UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:11UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:34ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:56ARST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:51ARST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−1.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:47UL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:48ARST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    56.2%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    57.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:18UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5640% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
39.9%
Trey Ragas run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
39.9%
Ryheem Malone run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
39.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 5 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+64
41.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 64 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1459% → 59%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
41.3%
Hansen, Justice sacked for 57 yards to the LA18 (Riley,Andre), PENALTY LA holding (Garror,Eric) 10 yards to the ASU35, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
41.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 33 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
41.0%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
41.0%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-2
41.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+6
41.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
41.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 20 yds to the LaLaf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.0%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.0%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
41.9%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
41.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 3 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
41.7%
Andre Nunez pass intercepted Brandon Byner return for no gain to the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
41.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+1
41.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
41.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Lorenzo McCaskill for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 17
OPP 32
-5
41.7%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 22
OPP 37
0
42.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 22
OPP 37
0
42.5%
Cody Grace punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Ryheem Malone at the LaLaf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
2 plays · 89 yds · 0:3143% → 48%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+24
43.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 24 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
47.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 65 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0553% → 58%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.3%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
47.2%
Justice Hansen run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
46.7%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
46.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Reed Tyler for 1 yd to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+9
46.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
46.2%
Hansen, Justice deep sideline pass incomplete to Merritt, Kirk, PENALTY LA pass interference (Solomon,Cameron) 15 yards to the LA29, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
45.6%
Marcel Murray run for 22 yds to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
42.0%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
50.4%
Raymond Calais run for 72 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1350% → 49%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
49.9%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+6
49.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
50.7%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
51.0%
Cody Grace punt for 46 yds, downed at the LaLaf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:4852% → 67%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
51.9%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
51.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 9 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
52.0%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
52.1%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+10
51.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 10 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
52.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 3 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+3
51.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+43
53.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 43 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
53.6%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+10
53.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 10 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.8%
Andre Nunez run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:3736% → 45%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
63.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 8 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
63.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
63.2%
Marcel Murray run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
62.7%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+5
62.0%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
62.3%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
61.2%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+12
62.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 12 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
61.2%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+11
61.2%
Hansen, Justice middle pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY LA pass interference (Garror,Eric) 11 yards to the LA2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.0%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
60.1%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
59.6%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Trey RagasSimilar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-3
58.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
57.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 68 yds, downed at the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12INT
12 plays · 42 yds · 2:1239% → 39%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
61.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
61.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+11
61.5%
Justice Hansen run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
60.3%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+13
59.6%
Marcel Murray run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.9%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
62.3%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+12
63.2%
Justice Hansen run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+35
60.9%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted for a 1ST down Koa Haynes return for no gain to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (35 Yards) to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:2864% → 71%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
64.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Matt Barnes for 4 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
64.6%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem Malone, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+12
63.5%
Raymond Calais run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
65.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+52
70.5%
Kyle Pfau 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
64.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
64.8%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
64.7%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
63.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Ferrod GardnerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
64.4%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
64.1%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
65.5%
Cody Grace punt for 28 yds, downed at the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:2569% → 80%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
69.4%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
70.5%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
69.6%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
70.8%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 8
50
-5
70.8%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Robert Hunt) to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+24
70.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 24 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
71.2%
Levi Lewis run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
71.1%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Johnny LumpkinSimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+1
69.9%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
79.9%
Kyle Pfau 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:0621% → 43%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
78.8%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
77.7%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+1
77.7%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
78.0%
Marcel Murray run for 17 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+33
76.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 33 yds to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
75.0%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
75.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Kendall JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+7
76.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 7 yds to the LaLaf 4Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
77.0%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
75.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Michael Jacquet IIISimilar
Q3 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.8%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Griffin Riggs) to the LaLaf 8 (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 65%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
67.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+10
67.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 10 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
67.8%
Andre Nunez run for no gain to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-6
67.5%
Andre Nunez run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 21 Andre Nunez fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 22
OWN 21
+10
65.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Matt Barnes for 10 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
64.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4835% → 32%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
64.6%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-2
64.0%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+2
67.1%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 33 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
67.7%
Cody Grace punt for 38 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for no gain to the LaLaf 28 Ryheem Malone fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Ryheem MaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0074% → 77%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
74.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 20 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
76.7%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
76.2%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+8
75.9%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
77.4%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
76.7%
Andre Nunez pass intercepted Jerry Jacobs return for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
43.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 73 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:0446% → 76%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
46.0%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+23
46.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 8 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, targeting (Darreon Jackson) to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.1%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jarrod Jackson, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
48.5%
Ryheem Malone run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+53
76.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 53 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:5935% → 78%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
65.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 19 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
60.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 26 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
57.1%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
57.1%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
59.0%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
57.1%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
21.7%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds for a TD (Justice Hansen pass to Warren Wand for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24TD
17 plays · 55 yds · 4:3041% → 95%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
41.2%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
42.3%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 5
50
0
41.4%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Trey RagasSimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 5
50
+13
38.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 13 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
43.1%
Andre Nunez run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+13
45.3%
Raymond Calais run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
45.5%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-5
45.5%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Cole Prudhomme) to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+15
45.3%
Raymond Calais run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
45.5%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
44.0%
Ragas,Trey rush off the right side for 4 yards to the ASU0, clock 01:33, PENALTY LA illegal formation 5 yards to the ASU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
40.5%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.7%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 13%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Darveon BrownSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Kendall JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
86.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
87.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0995% → 95%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 13
OPP 28
-3
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 16
OPP 31
-2
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:18
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
+53.9
TD · Q4 5:48
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds for a TD (Justice Hansen pass to Warren Wand for Two-Point Conversion)
-35.3
TD · Q4 10:51
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 73 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-32.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com