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GAST

Georgia State 20 at Troy 37

TROY
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2018 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:36 · Dan Ellington run for 13 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+4.6Home team on offense+30.7Score differential+22.1Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.4Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:58: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +4.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:46: Brandon Wright 28 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +3.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:21: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 41 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:10: Tra Barnett run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — GAST win probability +2.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: Dan Ellington pass complete to Christian Owens for 21 yds for a TD (Dan Ellington pass to Christian Owens for Two-Point Conversion) — GAST win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:07GAST 4th & 6 at TROY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:31GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:53GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:18TROY 4th & 1 at GAST 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:30TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 46, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:58TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 24, up 23
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:14GAST 4th & 4 at TROY 15, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.5
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:54GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 26, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:38TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 45, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:46GAST 4th & 11 at TROY 11, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:02GAST 4th & 2 at TROY 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:36GAST 4th & 9 at TROY 14, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:33TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:05TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:58TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:21TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:10GAST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.2%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:33TROY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:46GAST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:1385% → 85%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+75
85.4%
Kaleb Barker run for 75 yds to the GeoSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
85.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.4%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:5315% → 15%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
85.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 8 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
85.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 8 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
85.2%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
85.1%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
84.9%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
84.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for no gain to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+22
84.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 22 yds Cornelius McCoy fumbled, forced by Tyler Murray, recovered by Troy Melvin TyusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 2:4885% → 87%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
85.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+5
85.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 5 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+4
84.7%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
84.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 5 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+12
84.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 12 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
85.0%
B.J. Smith run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
50
+50
86.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 50 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:2314% → 13%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
86.2%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
86.3%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.3%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
86.3%
Seth Paige run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-3
87.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 46 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 5:2188% → 93%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
87.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Richard Hallman for 5 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Smith, Sawyer pass complete to Daughtry-Frye, Jabir for no gain to the TROY21, PENALTY TROY holding (#) 10 yards to the TROY11, NO PLAY, PENALTY GEORGIAST personal foul (Applin, DeAndre) 0 yards to the TROY21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+14
87.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 14 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
87.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 7 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
88.1%
B.J. Smith run for 8 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 25
OWN 32
+3
87.9%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+14
87.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 14 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+28
88.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 28 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
88.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 10 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
88.7%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
92.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:278% → 7%
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
92.6%
Brandon Wright punt for 41 yds, downed at the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:1793% → 94%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+63
93.0%
Sawyer Smith run for 63 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
93.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
93.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Zacc Weldon for 3 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.1%
Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.0%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
93.5%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3195% → 94%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
94.8%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
94.5%
Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 8
OWN 46
+16
94.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 42 yds , Penny Hart returns for 16 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:097% → 7%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
93.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 11 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
93.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+4
93.4%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:3295% → 95%
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-6
95.4%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Dontae Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 16
OWN 10
+14
95.3%
B.J. Smith run for 14 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
95.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:216% → 6%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
94.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
93.9%
Dan Ellington run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
94.0%
Seth Paige run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+20
94.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 20 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
93.9%
Seth Paige run for 12 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
93.8%
Dan Ellington run for 7 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-1
93.9%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
93.8%
Brandon Wright 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+2
95.8%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:324% → 4%
Q3 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+21
95.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 52 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 21 yds to the Troy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0297% → 96%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
96.6%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
96.7%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+4
96.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
96.3%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:325% → 7%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
95.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 12 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
95.5%
Dan Ellington run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+15
95.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Camrin Knight for 15 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
95.8%
Dan Ellington run for 7 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
95.8%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+13
96.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 13 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
96.0%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
96.0%
Seth Paige run for 9 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
96.1%
Seth Paige run for 2 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
96.2%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
96.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Destin Coates for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
93.5%
Brandon Wright 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18Uncategorized
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:5195% → 96%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
94.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
94.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+16
94.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to B.J. Smith for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
95.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 7 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
95.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
95.4%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-2
95.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
95.6%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Tyler Gore return for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:475% → 5%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+51
95.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 51 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
94.8%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
94.9%
Seth Paige run for 5 yds to the Troy 39 Seth Paige fumbled, forced by KJ Robertson, recovered by Troy Marcus JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:4796% → 99%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
95.9%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
96.2%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
96.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 6 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
97.0%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
97.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
97.1%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+2
97.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+41
99.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 41 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:581% → 4%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
98.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 46 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
98.5%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+7
98.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 7 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+6
98.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 6 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
98.9%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+2
99.1%
Dan Ellington run for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+13
99.2%
Dan Ellington run for 13 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.3%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4298% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+2
98.1%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
98.3%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+78
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 78 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:470% → 3%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 6 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.7%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+13
99.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Seth Paige for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 5 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+9
99.7%
Seth Paige run for 9 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.7%
Devin Gentry run for 5 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
97.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Christian Owens for 21 yds for a TD (Dan Ellington pass to Christian Owens for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26Uncategorized
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.0%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
99.1%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
99.1%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.2%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:58
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
+4
FG · Q3 5:46
Brandon Wright 28 yd FG GOOD
-3.1
TD · Q4 6:10
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com