Try the model
ULM

UL Monroe 14 at Georgia State 46

GAST
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Center Parc Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:00 · Jared Porter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense+5.4Score differential+2.3Pregame prior−13.0Garbage-time factor+0.7Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:18: Tra Barnett run for 23 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +6.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:00: Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 4 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright PAT MISSED) — GAST win probability +10.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:48: Seth Paige run for 82 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +16.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:34: Caleb Evans run for 12 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +14.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:19: Seth Paige run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Wright PAT MISSED) — GAST win probability +20.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 6 at ULM 23, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−2.9
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:00ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:34GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:51GAST 4th & 15 at ULM 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−6.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:51ULM 4th & 17 at ULM 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 24, down 16
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:19ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 7, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:26GAST 4th & 2 at ULM 38, up 22
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−1.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:09ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 7, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:13GAST 4th & 7 at ULM 18, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:36ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 10, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:36ULM 4th & 17 at ULM 18, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:54GAST 4th & 1 at ULM 46, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:05ULM 4th & 6 at midfield, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:33GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 31, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:23ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 23, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:55GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:18GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:26ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:00GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:48GAST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:34ULM Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:19GAST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0532% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.4%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.4%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
32.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 9 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
32.4%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
32.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 5 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+55
32.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 55 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.4%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the LaMon 1Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.2%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
34.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 18 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
34.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 7 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:3236% → 43%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
36.0%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+13
35.7%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Diondre Champaigne for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
50
+7
36.1%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
36.1%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+10
36.0%
Tra Barnett run for 10 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
36.1%
Dan Ellington run for 7 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+1
36.1%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the LaMon 23Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+23
42.5%
Tra Barnett run for 23 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:5259% → 61%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
41.2%
Marcus Green run for 1 yd to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
41.3%
Austin Vaughn run for 7 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+14
41.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
50
+9
40.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zachari Jackson for 9 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
40.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 5 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
40.7%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Pederson, Josh, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 15 yards to the GSU21, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
40.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
39.0%
Caleb Evans run for 21 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2641% → 56%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.9%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
40.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 19 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
41.7%
Ellington, Dan pass complete to Hart, Penny for no gain to the GSU45 (Hubbard, M.), PENALTY GSU ineligible downfield on pass (Pinckney, Sam) 5 yards to the GSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+6
41.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 6 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+14
41.6%
Dan Ellington run for 14 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
41.9%
Dan Ellington sacked by Donald Louis Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+20
41.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Destin Coates for 20 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
41.9%
Dan Ellington sacked by Mason Husmann for a loss of 10 yards to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+7
41.4%
Destin Coates run for 7 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 13
OPP 30
-5
41.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Jamal Paxton) to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+12
44.4%
Tra Barnett run for 12 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+18
44.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 18 yds to the LaMon 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
45.7%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 4 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
51.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
51.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+3
52.1%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
52.2%
Jared Porter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
1 play · 82 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
69.0%
Seth Paige run for 82 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
67.4%
Marcus Green run for 11 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
67.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 9 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+43
66.1%
Kayin White run for 43 yds Kayin White fumbled, forced by Quavian White, recovered by GeoSt Quavian WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
70.8%
Dan Ellington run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 42 Dan Ellington fumbled, forced by Chase Day, recovered by LaMon Cortez Sisco Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:0631% → 47%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
68.8%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Green, Marcus, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Applin, DeAndre) 15 yards to the GSU27, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
67.6%
Markis McCray run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+8
67.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 8 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
53.5%
Caleb Evans run for 12 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.3%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
59.1%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
58.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
57.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 61 yds, downed at the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
59.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 9 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 1
OWN 19
0
58.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
59.3%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
59.0%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+13
59.0%
Caleb Evans run for 13 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
58.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 6 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
57.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 3 yds Sloan Spiller fumbled, forced by DeAndre Applin, recovered by GeoSt Victor HeywardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3866% → 70%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
66.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 11 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
66.1%
Dan Ellington run for 16 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
66.1%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
66.1%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-10
66.9%
Dan Ellington sacked by Collin Turner for a loss of 10 yards to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+42
70.4%
Brandon Wright 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
67.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
68.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 15 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
66.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-8
66.2%
Caleb Evans sacked by Dontae Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 17
OWN 30
0
68.3%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
68.4%
Jared Porter punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
70.6%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
70.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
70.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 7 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-2
70.0%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 24
-10
71.5%
Jared Porter punt for 46 yds , Penny Hart returns for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 14 GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the GeoSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 8:4173% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
73.0%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
72.9%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+19
72.0%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 22 Dan Ellington fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Dan Ellington for a 1ST down , return for 19 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
73.2%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
73.1%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+21
72.3%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 38 Dan Ellington fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Dan Ellington for a 1ST down , return for 21 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
73.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
74.0%
Seth Paige run for 9 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
74.1%
Seth Paige run for 7 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
74.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
73.3%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
74.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 3 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-2
74.1%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+32
73.3%
Seth Paige run for 31 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, face mask (1 yards) (Austin Hawley) to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.1%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Wright PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
93.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
93.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 3 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
93.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
93.9%
Jared Porter punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the LaMon 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
94.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
94.5%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+1
94.3%
Tra Barnett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
93.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 36 yds, downed at the LaMon 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
95.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Remy LazarusSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+3
95.6%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+2
95.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 2 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 5
OWN 7
+28
95.6%
Jared Porter punt for 42 yds , Penny Hart returns for 28 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:2497% → 99%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
97.2%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
97.2%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the LaMon 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
97.6%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the LaMon 18Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
98.9%
Brandon Wright 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:372% → 0%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
98.3%
Marcus Green run for 3 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
98.4%
Austin Vaughn run for no gain to the LaMon 10Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
98.3%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 7
OWN 10
+49
99.8%
Jared Porter punt for 39 yds , Penny Hart returns for 49 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Zachari Jackson) to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-2
99.8%
Markis McCray run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 18 UL MONROE Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Jared Porter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.7%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-2
99.7%
Aaron Winchester run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+10
99.7%
Seth Paige run for 10 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the LaMon 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25INT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 2 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
99.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 7 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
99.8%
UL MONROE Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 6
50
+14
99.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 14 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Chris Bacon return for no gain to the GeoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
99.9%
Aaron Winchester run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
Destin Coates run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.9%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Dawson Hill run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Dawson Hill run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 50 yds , Perry Carter Jr. returns for no gain to the LaMon 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
100.0%
J.T. Jackson pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 1 yd to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
100.0%
J.T. Jackson pass incomplete to Perry Carter Jr.Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+3
100.0%
Javin Myers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Jared Porter punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
100.0%
Dawson Hill run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
100.0%
Dawson Hill run for 2 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
100.0%
Jack Walker run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 48 Jack Walker fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Jack WalkerSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:19
Seth Paige run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Wright PAT MISSED)
+20.8
TD · Q2 11:48
Seth Paige run for 82 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q2 9:34
Caleb Evans run for 12 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)
-14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com