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ARST

Arkansas State 21 at Georgia Southern 28

GASO
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:09 · Magill Bauerle punt for 54 yds, downed at the ArkSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior−9.0Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:42: Shai Werts run for 36 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +19.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:53: Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 11 yds for a TD (Justice Hansen pass to Omar Bayless for Two-Point Conversion) — ARST win probability +29.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Monteo Garrett run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +29.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:07: Justice Hansen run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +32.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:19: Wesley Kennedy III run for 47 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +36.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 3 at GASO 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    56.3%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:10ARST 4th & 1 at GASO 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:09GASO 4th & 27 at GASO 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:19ARST 4th & 9 at GASO 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:26GASO 4th & 24 at GASO 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:10ARST 4th & 7 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02ARST 4th & 1 at GASO 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−2.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:38GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 13, up 4
    Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:02ARST 4th & 7 at GASO 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−8.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:42ARST 4th & 2 at GASO 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%−5.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:55ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:30GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:43ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.1%−3.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:43ARST 4th & 8 at GASO 36, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q2 1:24GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:42GASO Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:53ARST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:55GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:07ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:19GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 37 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.3%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
39.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
39.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Logan Hunt for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+11
39.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 11 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
39.3%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
39.3%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+8
39.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
39.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Kindle VildorSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
39.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
39.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
-7
39.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Ty Phillips for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
41.3%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
41.3%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+2
41.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+9
41.1%
Tyler Bass punt for 46 yds , Warren Wand returns for 9 yds to the GASOUTHERN 45 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 69 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
41.6%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 4
OWN 14
0
41.5%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+12
41.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 12 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
41.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 15 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
41.0%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+27
41.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 27 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
40.6%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
40.6%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+8
40.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 8 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-1
41.1%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
9 plays · -6 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
42.5%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
42.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
42.6%
Monteo Garrett run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
42.6%
Monteo Garrett run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-10
42.4%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 32 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 22
OWN 22
0
42.4%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Monteo GarrettSimilar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 22
OWN 22
0
41.9%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 22
OWN 22
-5
41.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 27
OWN 17
0
41.7%
Magill Bauerle punt for 54 yds, downed at the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:4157% → 58%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
42.9%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+3
42.2%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
42.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Marcel MurraySimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
42.5%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
42.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+10
41.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
41.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 11 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-8
41.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Logan Hunt and Todd Bradley for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+12
42.3%
Justice Hansen run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+2
41.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 2 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 23
-5
42.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
42.0%
Blake Grupe 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 10 yds · 3:5343% → 39%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
42.7%
Shai Werts run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
43.0%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+3
42.6%
Monteo Garrett run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+13
41.9%
Shai Werts run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
44.6%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-5
44.9%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 44 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+2
41.8%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-10
41.3%
S. Werts pass complete to W. Kennedy for no gain to the GS48 (Bingham, Ronhee;Jackson, Darreo), PENALTY GS holding (J. Edwards) 10 yards to the GS38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 19
OWN 38
-9
40.4%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 39 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 28
OWN 29
+4
39.6%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 24
OWN 33
+6
39.3%
Tyler Bass punt for 37 yds , Warren Wand returns for 6 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
39.5%
Justice Hansen run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 47 Justice Hansen fumbled, forced by Joshua Moon, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
38.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
50
-7
38.4%
Justice Hansen sacked by Raymond Johnson III and Logan Hunt for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+7
41.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 7
50
0
40.6%
Cody Grace punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 1:3141% → 55%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
41.1%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
42.6%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
44.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+4
42.5%
Malik Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-13
44.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 46 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal block (Monteo Garrett) to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 24
OWN 39
+61
54.9%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 61 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9DOWNS
14 plays · 47 yds · 1:1845% → 45%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
54.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Armond Weh-Weh for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-10
53.5%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY ASU holding (Bonner, Lanard) 10 yards to the ASU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+16
55.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 16 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
53.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
50
0
51.2%
Armond Weh-Weh run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
50
+10
55.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 10 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
53.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-10
55.5%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar (M. Brinson), PENALTY ASU holding (Seidnaly, Nour) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 20
50
+19
57.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 19 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
55.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.6%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
54.3%
Logan Wright run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
53.2%
Shai Werts sacked by Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
52.1%
Magill Bauerle punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 53 yds · 0:0048% → 51%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
52.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 11 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
50.7%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+4
50.3%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
50.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+24
49.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 24 yds Javonis Isaac fumbled, forced by Joshua Moon, recovered by GeoSo Rashad ByrdSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
55.1%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 4Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+9
54.9%
Monteo Garrett run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
53.9%
Monteo Garrett run for no gain to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 2
OWN 13
+35
53.1%
Tyler Bass punt for 58 yds , Warren Wand returns for 35 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:1646% → 47%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
54.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 23 yds to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
52.6%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
52.6%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-2
54.1%
Justice Hansen sacked by Logan Hunt for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
53.4%
Blake Grupe 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:1456% → 79%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
55.5%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Logan WrightSimilar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+17
55.2%
Shai Werts run for 17 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
56.0%
Wesley Fields run for 19 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
59.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+7
59.9%
Shai Werts run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
79.4%
Shai Werts run for 36 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4927% → 58%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Armond Weh-Weh for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
72.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
72.1%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
72.2%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
69.9%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+1
68.9%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
69.9%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+32
71.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 32 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
42.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 11 yds for a TD (Justice Hansen pass to Omar Bayless for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:5853% → 83%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
53.2%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+64
52.6%
Wesley Fields run for 64 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
82.5%
Monteo Garrett run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.7%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
72.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 7 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
72.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
71.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
72.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
71.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
73.2%
Cody Grace punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
81.9%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-4
81.7%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+5
80.4%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 26 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
79.6%
Magill Bauerle punt for 51 yds , Jeremy Smith returns for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 5:3622% → 59%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
78.3%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+9
78.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 9 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
77.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+2
78.9%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
77.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
75.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+9
77.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 9 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
75.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 14 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
74.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
74.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 2 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
74.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+10
77.6%
Justice Hansen run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
71.6%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 2
OPP 18
-2
71.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javier Carbonell for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+16
73.8%
Justice Hansen run for 16 yds to the GeoSo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.0%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 4:4255% → 96%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
55.4%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+8
55.1%
Monteo Garrett run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
55.9%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+9
56.8%
Shai Werts run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
59.0%
Shai Werts run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
61.0%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
59.5%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
50
+2
61.2%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
62.5%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+47
96.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 47 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0711% → 11%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
88.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
50
-2
89.4%
Justice Hansen sacked by Joshua Moon and Ty Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:19
Wesley Kennedy III run for 47 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
+36.5
TD · Q4 5:07
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-32.8
TD · Q4 14:55
Monteo Garrett run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
+29.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com