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WMU

Western Michigan 34 at Georgia State 15

GAST
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:59 · Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 10 yds to the WMich 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Home team on offense−40.5Pregame prior−1.3Score differential−22.3Garbage-time factor−15.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:01: Dan Ellington run for 10 yds for a TD (Barry Brown PAT MISSED) — GAST win probability +9.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 0:36: Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK) — WMU win probability +8.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:49: Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 40 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK) — WMU win probability +10.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:45: Jamauri Bogan run for 71 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK) — WMU win probability +9.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:00: Dan Ellington run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — GAST win probability +9.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00GAST 4th & 1 at WMU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:31WMU 4th & 2 at GAST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:31WMU 4th & 10 at GAST 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:55WMU 4th & 6 at GAST 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:52GAST 4th & 6 at WMU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:59WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:47GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:59WMU 4th & 12 at GAST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:49GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:00WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 32, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:32GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 41, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00WMU 4th & 10 at GAST 34, up 19
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:59GAST 4th & 18 at WMU 46, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 4:38WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:01GAST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:36WMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:49WMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:45WMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:00GAST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1FUMBLE
11 plays · 49 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
24.3%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
24.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Destin Coates for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+25
24.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 25 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
24.3%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
24.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Christian Owens for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
50
+5
24.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 5 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
24.3%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
24.3%
Tra Barnett run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+26
24.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 26 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
24.3%
Dan Ellington sacked by Drake Spears for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 26 Dan Ellington fumbled, recovered by WMich Ralph Holley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 6:3674% → 72%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
26.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 12 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
26.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+13
26.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
26.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-5
26.0%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Drake Harris) to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
26.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+2
26.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
26.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+3
26.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
26.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+15
26.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 15 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
26.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
26.0%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
26.1%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
26.0%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-3
26.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+3
26.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
28.5%
Gavin Peddie 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:0329% → 34%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
28.5%
Dan Ellington run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
28.4%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+20
28.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 20 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
29.3%
Seth Paige run for no gain to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
28.8%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+9
29.0%
Dan Ellington run for 9 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
29.7%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
29.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Camrin Knight for 11 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
29.7%
Dan Ellington run for 9 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+4
32.1%
Tra Barnett run for 4 yds to the WMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
32.1%
Tra Barnett run for 2 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
32.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 2 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
31.5%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
33.8%
Barry Brown 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:5368% → 67%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
32.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+8
31.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Drake Harris for 8 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
31.1%
WASSINK, JON pass complete to BORSKE, BRETT for 19 yards to the GSU39 (Lazarus, Remy), PENALTY WMU pass interference (BORSKE, BRETT) 15 yards to the WMU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 25
OWN 27
+6
32.2%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 19
OWN 33
0
32.3%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+13
32.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Chase Brown for 13 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
33.0%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds, downed at the GeoSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
34.7%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
34.5%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 12
OWN 10
0
33.7%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
33.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 51 yds, downed at the WMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:1268% → 77%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
32.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
31.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Drake Harris for 9 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
31.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+10
31.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
31.4%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
30.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+11
31.3%
Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
30.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 1 yd to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
23.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Brett Borske for 17 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
26.2%
Dan Ellington sacked by DeShawn Foster for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 19 Dan Ellington fumbled, recovered by WMich Alex Grace , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1677% → 76%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
23.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 18
-3
23.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
24.0%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
23.7%
Gavin Peddie 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:5824% → 37%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
23.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 9 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+50
24.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Destin Coates for 50 yds to the WMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
36.8%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds for a TD (Barry Brown PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 1:2569% → 80%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
31.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Drake Harris for 12 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 9 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
29.7%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
30.0%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
29.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Chase Brown for 3 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+18
29.1%
Jon Wassink run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
28.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 18 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
19.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11INT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:3322% → 23%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
22.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
21.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 15 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
22.3%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
22.0%
Dan Ellington run for 15 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
22.8%
Dan Ellington pass intercepted A.J. Thomas return for 24 yds to the WMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:1178% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
22.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Remy Lazarus) to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
20.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+13
21.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
20.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+40
10.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 40 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
12.6%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 13
OWN 20
-13
12.4%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 13 yards to the GeoSt 7 Dan Ellington fumbled, forced by Ali Fayad, recovered by GeoSt Lucas JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 26
OWN 7
+15
12.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Destin Coates for 15 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
12.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 49 yds, downed at the WMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
2.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 71 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:452% → 13%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
2.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.4%
Demarcus Kirk run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
2.4%
Ellington, Dan rush for 6 yards to the GSU33 (GRACE, ALEX), PENALTY GSU holding (Johnson, Lucas) 10 yards to the GSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 18
OWN 0
0
2.0%
Ellington, Dan pass complete to Hart, Penny for 9 yards to the GSU26 (GINWRIGHT, D;BALABANI, A), PENALTY GSU pass interference off-setting, PENALTY WMU face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+23
2.0%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 23 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
2.5%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+23
2.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 23 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
2.8%
Dan Ellington run for 4 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+13
2.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 13 yds to the WMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
2.8%
Dan Ellington run for 6 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+8
2.9%
Destin Coates run for 8 yds to the WMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
2.9%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 3Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.1%
Dan Ellington run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
12.6%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by A.J. ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
6.1%
BELLAMY, L rush for 17 yards to the WMU44 (Shaw, Michael), PENALTY WMU holding 10 yards to the WMU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+9
6.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 9 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
6.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 6 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
6.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
8.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Penny Hart for 14 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
8.8%
Tra Barnett run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-2
9.3%
Dan Ellington run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
9.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete to Destin CoatesSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
8.8%
Brandon Wright punt for 56 yds, downed at the WMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
16 plays · 63 yds · 0:2796% → 96%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
3.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+2
3.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+3
4.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
3.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+5
3.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+7
4.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 7 yds to the WMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
3.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
3.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+2
3.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
3.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 18 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
3.5%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+2
3.4%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
3.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
3.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-4
3.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+29
4.0%
Nick Mihalic punt for 34 yds for a touchback WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:262% → 2%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
2.4%
Dan Ellington run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
2.4%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
50
+12
2.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Christian Owens for 12 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
2.6%
Dan Ellington run for no gain to the WMich 38Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
2.6%
Dan Ellington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-8
2.6%
Dan Ellington sacked by Drake Spears for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 18
OPP 46
+10
2.1%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 10 yds to the WMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
1.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-15
1.0%
BELLAMY, L rush for loss of 2 yards to the WMU39, PENALTY WMU illegal block (JURIGA, LUKE) 15 yards to the WMU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+58
1.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 58 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
1.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-3
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 12
OPP 18
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:49
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 40 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 10:45
Jamauri Bogan run for 71 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 2:01
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds for a TD (Barry Brown PAT MISSED)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com