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ARST

Arkansas State 29 at Tulsa 20

TLSA
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:26 · Thomas Bennett punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense−1.4Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Pregame prior+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:33: Marcel Murray run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +9.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:55: Justice Hansen run for 18 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +12.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:25: Luke Skipper pass intercepted for a TD Demari Medley return for 53 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +15.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:57: Luke Skipper pass complete to Cole Neph for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +10.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 11:13: Nathan Walker 38 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +9.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 8:22TLSA 4th & 1 at ARST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:23ARST 4th & 16 at TLSA 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:18TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:34ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 22, down 4
    Close callPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 24 at TLSA 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:42ARST 4th & 5 at TLSA 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:38TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 28, up 4
    Close callPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:26TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:31ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:25TLSA 4th & 1 at ARST 46, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−5.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:06TLSA 4th & 5 at ARST 5, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−9.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:59ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:57TLSA 4th & 3 at ARST 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−0.8
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−10.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:50ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−3.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:13TLSA 4th & 7 at ARST 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−7.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:07ARST 4th & 6 at TLSA 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:22TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:33ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:55ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:25ARST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:57TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FUMBLE
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
52.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
52.6%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
52.6%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
52.6%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
50
+6
52.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 6 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
52.6%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-3
52.6%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 38 Justice Hansen fumbled, forced by Cooper Edmiston, recovered by Tulsa Shemarr RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:3053% → 56%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
53.2%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
53.5%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 7 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+5
53.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
53.5%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
53.5%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+14
53.4%
Luke Skipper run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
53.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
53.5%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+6
53.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
53.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
53.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.4%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 2:5944% → 45%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.9%
TULSA Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+30
55.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 30 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Javonis IsaacSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
55.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
54.9%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
54.8%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+12
55.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 12 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
54.8%
Justice Hansen sacked by Deven Lamp for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+9
55.2%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-10
56.2%
Murray, Marcel rush for 8 yards to the TLS0, clock 05:31, PENALTY ASU holding 10 yards to the TLS18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 16
OPP 18
0
56.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 16
OPP 18
+35
55.5%
Blake Grupe 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
55.2%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+10
55.0%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 10 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-1
55.2%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+16
54.7%
Thomas Bennett punt for 57 yds , Warren Wand returns for 16 yds to the TULSA 49 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (11 Yards) to the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
55.7%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
55.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
55.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
56.4%
Cody Grace punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 2:4456% → 55%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
55.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-2
56.6%
Luke Skipper sacked by Kevin Thurmon and Tajhea Chambers for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+8
55.7%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
56.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+9
57.0%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
57.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
57.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-10
57.4%
SKIPPER, L. rush for 12 yards to the ASU22, PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the ASU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 44
-10
56.2%
Luke Skipper sacked by Darreon Jackson for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 24
OWN 46
+17
55.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 44 yds , Warren Wand returns for 17 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 1:2244% → 42%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
56.3%
Justice Hansen run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
55.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Reed Tyler for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
55.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Reed Tyler, broken up by Manny BunchSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
55.7%
Hansen, Justice pass complete to Merritt, Kirk for 8 yards to the ASU47 (WHITFIELD, M.), PENALTY TLS offside defense 5 yards to the ASU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+8
55.0%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
56.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 2 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-4
56.5%
Justice Hansen sacked by Trevis Gipson for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 12
50
+7
57.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 7 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
57.6%
Cody Grace punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
58.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
58.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
58.0%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Corey Taylor II for 2 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+11
57.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 46 yds , Warren Wand returns for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 TULSA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:2043% → 53%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
57.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+22
58.6%
Warren Wand run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
56.4%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
56.5%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+5
57.5%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
56.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 7 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 3
OPP 11
-5
56.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-10
56.4%
Murray, Marcel rush for 3 yards to the TLS13 (EDMISTON, C.;LAMP, D.), PENALTY ASU holding 10 yards to the TLS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 18
OPP 26
+22
57.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 22 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
56.4%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.8%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
53.4%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Jerry JacobsSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
52.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 6
50
-6
53.2%
Luke Skipper sacked by Forrest Merrill for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
50.0%
Thomas Bennett punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2950% → 51%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
49.8%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
50.0%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
49.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
49.5%
Cody Grace punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:0050% → 53%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+28
49.7%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 28 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
53.0%
Luke Skipper run for no gain to the ArkSt 43 Luke Skipper fumbled, forced by Dajon Emory, recovered by ArkSt Justin CliftonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:1054% → 63%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
46.3%
Justice Hansen run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
44.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 14 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
43.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 9 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-2
43.7%
Armond Weh-Weh run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+6
43.9%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
43.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
43.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+14
44.3%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Edwards, Kendri, PENALTY TLS pass interference (EVANS, A.) 14 yards to the TLS2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
36.7%
Blake Grupe 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
44.1%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 16 yds Jarion Anderson fumbled, forced by Brandon Byner, recovered by ArkSt Tajhea ChambersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:4961% → 74%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
38.7%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 14:44
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+15
39.1%
Justice Hansen run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
38.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
38.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 8 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+18
26.1%
Justice Hansen run for 18 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16INT TD
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:2531% → 18%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
30.9%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-4
30.7%
Luke Skipper sacked by Forrest Merrill for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+22
29.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 22 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
31.5%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Tyler Bowling) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+6
30.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
31.5%
SKIPPER, L. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, K., PENALTY ASU pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
50
+4
32.8%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
33.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+53
17.5%
Luke Skipper pass intercepted for a TD Demari Medley return for 53 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 5:1916% → 19%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
17.0%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
17.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
17.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
18.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
17.8%
Luke Skipper run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
18.1%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Jerry JacobsSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
17.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+9
17.8%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
18.4%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Darreon JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
18.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+16
18.2%
Luke Skipper run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
18.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
18.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
19.2%
Chad President run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
19.3%
Nathan Walker 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
14.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
14.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+20
15.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Bubba Ogbebor for 20 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
14.6%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
13.8%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
14.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-5
14.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
15.3%
Cody Grace punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 2:5715% → 27%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
15.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 7 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+16
15.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
16.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
17.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
17.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+16
17.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
17.3%
Luke Skipper run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
17.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+4
17.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-2
16.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+10
26.8%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Cole Neph for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
25.3%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
25.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-7
25.4%
Justice Hansen sacked by Treyvon Reeves for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+37
27.1%
Cody Grace punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the TULSA 34 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:5225% → 30%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+37
24.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 37 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
29.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-1
29.3%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
27.2%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
30.4%
Nathan Walker 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0074% → 75%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
25.7%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+13
26.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 13 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+4
24.6%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
23.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 12 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
22.6%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
22.1%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Murray, Marcel (GIPSON, T.), PENALTY TLS offside defense 5 yards to the TLS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
21.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
21.8%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-5
24.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
24.7%
Cody Grace punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23SF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-4
16.2%
Keylon Stokes run for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24END OF GAME
15 plays · 60 yds · 4:4384% → 93%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.7%
Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
15.0%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
15.1%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
14.3%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
14.6%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
14.0%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 6
50
+11
13.8%
Justice Hansen run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
13.5%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+10
7.4%
Marcel Murray run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
6.8%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+15
6.9%
Justice Hansen run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 12
OPP 13
-2
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:25
Luke Skipper pass intercepted for a TD Demari Medley return for 53 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q3 12:55
Justice Hansen run for 18 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q4 14:57
Luke Skipper pass complete to Cole Neph for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com