2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:05 · Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:47: Wiley Green run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK) — RICE win probability +7.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:43: Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +15.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:42: Juma Otoviano run for 80 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK) — RICE win probability +25.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 13:17: Juma Otoviano run for 8 yds to the Rice 30 — RICE win probability +12.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:05: Juma Otoviano run for 62 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK) — RICE win probability +15.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 8 of 11ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snapGo for it67.7%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.7%average punt
- Q1 13:36RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt32.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 13:36RICE 4th & 7 at ODU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it32.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.0%average punt
- Q1 5:58ODU 4th & 7 at RICE 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snapGo for it64.1%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call64.2%80% to makePunt62.9%−1.3average punt
- Q1 5:51RICE 4th & 1 at ODU 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.6%71% to convertField goal35.1%−0.477% to makePunt33.8%−1.8average punt
- Q2 13:02ODU 4th & 9 at RICE 9, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snapGo for it58.5%−0.525% to convertField goalTheir call59.0%89% to makePunt55.5%−3.5average punt
- Q2 12:58RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snapGo for it38.2%−0.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.9%average punt
- Q2 8:47ODU 4th & 15 at ODU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snapGo for it48.9%−1.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.5%average punt
- Q2 0:03RICE 4th & 5 at ODU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.5%42% to convertField goal57.4%−1.045% to makePunt56.9%−1.6average punt
- Q3 15:00RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it55.8%−1.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.2%average punt
- Q3 13:36ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 40, down 7Close callPunted · 41.4% before the snapGo for it41.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.0%−0.9average punt
- Q3 11:51RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 38, up 7Close callPunted · 59.8% before the snapGo for it60.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.1%−0.3average punt
- Q3 5:38RICE 4th & 4 at ODU 48, tiedClose callPunted · 50.4% before the snapGo for it51.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.7%−0.9average punt
- Q3 3:00ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snapGo for it49.2%−1.940% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.1%average punt
- Q4 13:17RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snapGo for it78.7%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.2%average punt
- Q4 9:59ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snapGo for it15.4%−2.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q4 7:05ODU 4th & 3 at RICE 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.5%52% to convertField goal6.2%−1.328% to makePunt6.1%−1.4average punt
- Q4 4:11RICE 4th & 1 at ODU 48, up 14Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.7%−1.0average punt
- Q4 3:18RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 1:44RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick40.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call40.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:47RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.3%97% to makeGo for two48.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:43ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.8%97% to makeGo for two48.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:42RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.8%97% to makeGo for two66.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:05RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%−0.397% to makeGo for two93.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 6 yds to the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
31.4%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 5 yds to the Rice 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3FG11 plays · 73 yds · 4:1367% → 66%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
32.9%
Isaiah Harper run for 4 yds to the ODU 14 OLDDOMINION Penalty, illegal block (-7 Yards) to the ODU 7Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 13
OWN 7
+17
32.9%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 17 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
32.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Hasaan Patterson for 9 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
32.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 41Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+39
32.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 39 yds to the Rice 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
32.2%
Matt Geiger run for 5 yds to the Rice 15 OLDDOMINION Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Rice 30Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+5
32.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 5 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+8
32.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 8 yds to the Rice 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4TD9 plays · 88 yds · 4:0734% → 39%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+60
33.5%
Wiley Green pass complete to Jordan Myers for 60 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
34.9%
Wiley Green pass complete to Jordan Myers for 7 yds to the ODU 21Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+5
34.1%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Walter for 5 yds to the ODU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
38.7%
Giovanni Gentosi run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5FG13 plays · 66 yds · 3:4262% → 63%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
37.9%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 19 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+12
37.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 12 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
36.6%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 10 yds to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+23
37.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Donta Anthony Jr. for 23 yds to the Rice 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
36.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for no gain to the Rice 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
38.8%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Walter for 11 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-8
39.4%
Wiley Green sacked by Kane Miskel for a loss of 8 yards to the Rice 40Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 14
OWN 40
+5
37.4%
Jack Fox punt for 51 yds , Isaiah Harper returns for 5 yds to the ODU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
RICEDrive 8TD2 plays · 14 yds · 0:4843% → 51%
ODUDrive 9PUNT12 plays · 24 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 6 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
47.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 5 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
46.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 2 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+10
46.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 10 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
46.9%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Isaiah Harper, broken up by George NyakwolSimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 15
OWN 49
0
47.8%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Jason WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10DOWNS13 plays · 45 yds · 5:3852% → 57%
Q2 5:41
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+8
51.3%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Walter for 8 yds to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
54.6%
Jack Fox punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Harper at the ODU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q3 13:36
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
57.5%
Bailey Cate punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Myers at the Rice 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14TD9 plays · 86 yds · 3:3339% → 61%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
61.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 11 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
59.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 12 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+30
55.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 30 yds to the Rice 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q3 3:00
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+4
47.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 4 yds to the ODU 16Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+61
48.9%
Bailey Cate punt for 51 yds , Jordan Myers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 15 RICE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Rice 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17TD2 plays · 78 yds · 0:5150% → 76%
ODUDrive 18INT9 plays · 28 yds · 0:4230% → 33%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Justin Cooper for 3 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
69.6%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Andrew BirdSimilar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
71.3%
LARUSSA, Blake pass intercepted by ADAMS, Myles at the ODU30, ADAMS, Myles return to the ODU11, out-of-bounds, PENALTY RICE holding (WHITE, Jason) 10 yards to the ODU38, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-2
65.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+2
66.8%
Blake LaRussa pass intercepted George Nyakwol return for 2 yds to the Rice 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
77.6%
Matt Geiger run for 3 yds to the ODU 14 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Cooper) to the ODU 7Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+12
79.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 12 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
77.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 6 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-10
77.3%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Elijah Garcia for a loss of 10 yards to the ODU 20Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
79.9%
Bailey Cate punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Myers at the Rice 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21TD1 play · 62 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22DOWNS9 plays · 32 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 3 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
91.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 7 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
91.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
50
+8
91.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 8 yds to the Rice 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1897% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24INT3 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
98.4%
Blake LaRussa sacked by George Nyakwol for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 11Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+19
98.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Darrell Brown for 19 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
98.3%
Blake LaRussa pass intercepted Antonio Montero return for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 3:18
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+5
97.8%
Jack Fox punt for 44 yds , Isaiah Harper returns for 5 yds to the ODU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26Uncategorized3 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
98.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 13 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:42
Juma Otoviano run for 80 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK)
+25.8
TD · Q3 5:43
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q4 7:05
Juma Otoviano run for 62 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK)
+15.3