Try the model
ODU

Old Dominion 37 at Western Kentucky 34

WKU
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:32 · Kesean Strong run for 3 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 188Home team on offense+19.2Pregame prior+0.2Garbage-time factor+4.7Score differential+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:35: Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK) — WKU win probability +9.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:40: Kesean Strong run for 2 yds for a TD Timeout OLDDOMINION, clock 05:40 (Blake LaRussa pass to Cornell Hendrick Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — ODU win probability +41.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:37: Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK) — WKU win probability +27.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:09: Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 6 yds for a TD Timeout WESTRN KENTUCKY, clock 00:09 (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +42.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Nick Rice 26 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +62.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 7 at WKU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:19WKU 4th & 2 at ODU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:17ODU 4th & 9 at WKU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:59WKU 4th & 5 at ODU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−5.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:36ODU 4th & 3 at WKU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−11.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:01ODU 4th & 1 at WKU 44, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−5.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:45WKU 4th & 3 at ODU 16, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%−0.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−13.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:39ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−3.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−2.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:39WKU 4th & 1 at ODU 48, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:59WKU 4th & 21 at ODU 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−3.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:32ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:42WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:59ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:57WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:35WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:40ODU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:37WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−1.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:09ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ODUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
59.6%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 21 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
59.6%
Kesean Strong run for 2 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+1
59.6%
Kesean Strong run for 1 yd to the WKent 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
59.6%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Ta'Corian DardenSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
59.6%
Bailey Cate punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2060% → 62%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
59.7%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 20 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
59.8%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
59.9%
Davis Shanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+10
59.8%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 10 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
60.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 9 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+22
60.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 8 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, illegal use of hands (14 Yards) to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
60.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 4 yds to the ODU 9Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
60.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for no gain to the ODU 9Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
62.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:3839% → 42%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
61.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Donta Anthony Jr. for 4 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
61.2%
Kesean Strong run for 4 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
61.2%
Kesean Strong run for 4 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
61.1%
Blake LaRussa run for 20 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
60.8%
Will Knight run for 6 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
60.5%
Will Knight run for 6 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
60.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 27 yds to the WKent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.9%
Kesean Strong run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:3260% → 60%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
59.5%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 24 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
60.5%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 5 yds to the ODU 37Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+10
60.5%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 10 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
60.7%
Davis Shanley sacked by Tim Ward for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 30Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+7
60.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 7 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+4
60.3%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 4 yds to the ODU 19Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 2
OPP 19
0
60.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for no gain to the ODU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:1541% → 49%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
59.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 19 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
58.6%
Kesean Strong run for 10 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
58.1%
Kesean Strong run for 4 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
58.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 10 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
57.9%
Lala Davis run for 3 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+14
57.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 14 yds to the WKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
57.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 7 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+13
57.4%
Lala Davis run for 12 yds to the WKent 2 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Antwon Kincade) to the WKent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.3%
Will Knight run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0353% → 63%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.9%
Joshua Samuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
52.8%
Davis Shanley run for 3 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
52.3%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 16 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
54.0%
Kevaris Thomas run for no gain to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
53.6%
Kevaris Thomas pass incomplete to Jacquez SloanSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+11
53.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 11 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
54.7%
SHANLEY, Davis pass incomplete to JACKSON, Lucky, PENALTY ODU pass interference (HALL, Geronda) 15 yards to the ODU31, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
55.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 16 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
55.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 5 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-2
55.4%
APPLEBERRY, G. rush for 9 yards to the ODU1, out-of-bounds (DAVILA, Justice), PENALTY WKU holding (SLOAN, Jacquez) 2 yards to the ODU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+8
55.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 8 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
55.4%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 3 yds to the ODU 1Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.5%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:3344% → 44%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
56.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 15 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
55.7%
LARUSSA, Blake pass incomplete to ANTHONY, Donta, PENALTY WKU holding (FARRIS, DeAndre) 10 yards to the WKU29, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
55.2%
Kesean Strong run for 1 yd to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
55.4%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
56.4%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Travis FulghamSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
55.6%
Nick Rice 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:1056% → 62%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
55.9%
Joshua Samuel run for 2 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
55.9%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 6 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+15
56.3%
SHANLEY, Davis pass incomplete to SLOAN, Jacquez, PENALTY ODU pass interference (NOYE, Justin) 15 yards to the WKU49, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
57.9%
Joshua Samuel run for 8 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+14
58.3%
Joshua Samuel run for 14 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
59.4%
Davis Shanley run for 2 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+3
59.4%
Kevaris Thomas run for 3 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
58.2%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Jacquez SloanSimilar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
62.3%
Alex Rinella 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:0043% → 47%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
57.4%
Kesean Strong run for 3 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal use of hands (15 Yards) to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
55.2%
Kesean Strong run for 16 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
54.2%
Kesean Strong run for 4 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
53.1%
Lala Davis run for 3 yds to the WKent 29 Lala Davis fumbled, forced by Evan Sayner, recovered by WKent Eli BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:4762% → 73%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
61.7%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 13 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
63.1%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 4 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
63.6%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 2
50
+6
63.4%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
64.0%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Jacquez SloanSimilar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
63.9%
Davis Shanley run for 10 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
64.9%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 2 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+17
63.5%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 17 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
73.2%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:2229% → 30%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
71.3%
Blake LaRussa run for 12 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
71.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 13 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
69.2%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan DuhartSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
69.9%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Juwuan Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.8%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
70.8%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 7 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
70.9%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 3 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
71.6%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 3 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
72.4%
Joshua Samuel run for 4 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
71.7%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
70.4%
Alex Rinella punt for 24 yds, downed at the ODU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 65 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
69.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 23 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
67.5%
Will Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 46Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+7
68.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 7 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+19
67.8%
Kesean Strong run for 19 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
65.6%
Kesean Strong run for 14 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
65.6%
Kesean Strong run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 7Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
65.6%
Will Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 9Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
67.7%
Kesean Strong run for 6 yds to the WKent 3Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.7%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Isaiah Harper, broken up by Drell GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14SF
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:2974% → 67%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
74.2%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 2Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+1
74.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd to the WKent 3Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
67.0%
SHANLEY, Davis pass incomplete to SLOAN, Jacquez, dropped pass, PENALTY WKU holding (MEREDITH, J.) 3 yards to the WKU0, NO PLAY, TEAM safety, clock 07:08. for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
62.9%
Kesean Strong run for 1 yd to the ODU 48Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Cornell Hendrick Jr.Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+8
65.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 8 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
64.2%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Drell GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:0472% → 82%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
71.6%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 21 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
73.5%
Davis Shanley run for 12 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
73.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 9 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-2
73.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 16Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
72.1%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Mik'Quan Deane, broken up by Justinn RichardsonSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
81.8%
Alex Rinella 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
78.0%
Kesean Strong run for 3 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
77.5%
Kesean Strong run for 8 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
76.9%
Kesean Strong run for 2 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
76.9%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Kesean StrongSimilar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-6
77.7%
Blake LaRussa sacked by DeAngelo Malone and Juwuan Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 37Similar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
80.0%
Bailey Cate punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:2384% → 83%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
83.5%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 19 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
84.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Mason Brooks) to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+4
83.5%
Davis Shanley run for 4 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
84.5%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+8
83.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 8 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 46
-5
83.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Eli Brown) to the WKent 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
83.0%
Alex Rinella punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Harper at the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
82.4%
LARUSSA, Blake pass incomplete to STRONG, Kesean (HOLT, Ben), PENALTY ODU pass interference (STRONG, Kesean) 12 yards to the ODU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 22
OWN 12
+15
82.6%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 15 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
81.9%
Kesean Strong run for no gain to the ODU 27Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
83.2%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by DeAndre FarrisSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
84.0%
Bailey Cate punt, downed at the WKent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4787% → 85%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
86.8%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
86.9%
Joshua Samuel run for 3 yds to the ODU 48Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
86.3%
Joshua Samuel run for no gain to the ODU 48Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
85.0%
Alex Rinella punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0018% → 21%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
82.1%
Kesean Strong run for 5 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
81.4%
Kesean Strong run for 5 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
81.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 6 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
80.2%
Kesean Strong run for 6 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
79.3%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Juwuan Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 28 Blake LaRussa fumbled, recovered by WKent Ben Holt , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds to the ODU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0088% → 85%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
88.2%
Garland LaFrance run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 30Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-9
88.0%
Davis Shanley sacked by Jeremy Meiser and Tim Ward for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 21
OPP 39
0
86.4%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Gino Appleberry Jr.Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 21
OPP 39
0
85.0%
Alex Rinella punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5914% → 59%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
86.1%
Blake LaRussa run for 7 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
84.0%
Kesean Strong run for no gain to the ODU 27Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+13
85.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 13 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
83.5%
Kesean Strong run for 2 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
83.6%
LARUSSA, Blake pass incomplete to FULGHAM, Travis, PENALTY WKU holding (RUFFIN, Dionte) 10 yards to the WKU48, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
81.7%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Travis FulghamSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
82.4%
Will Knight run for 2 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+44
82.9%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 44 yds to the WKent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.5%
Kesean Strong run for 2 yds for a TD Timeout OLDDOMINION, clock 05:40 (Blake LaRussa pass to Cornell Hendrick Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:5557% → 96%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
56.5%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 11 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
57.4%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd to the WKent 32Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+22
57.1%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 22 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
63.0%
Joshua Samuel run for 9 yds to the ODU 37Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+14
63.1%
Joshua Samuel run for 14 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
64.8%
Joshua Samuel run for 9 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+7
64.8%
Joshua Samuel run for 7 yds to the ODU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
64.8%
Davis Shanley run for 5 yds to the ODU 2Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
64.8%
Joshua Samuel run for no gain to the ODU 2Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.8%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 1:239% → 63%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
91.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Steven Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 20Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-5
91.6%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive offside (Isaiah Harper) to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+14
91.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 14 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
90.6%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Keion White, broken up by Ta'Corian DardenSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+3
91.4%
Kesean Strong run for 3 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
90.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+31
91.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Keion White for 31 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+31
87.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 31 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
37.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 6 yds for a TD Timeout WESTRN KENTUCKY, clock 00:09 (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26MISSED FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0859% → 67%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
59.0%
Garland LaFrance run for 15 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
61.2%
SHANLEY, Davis pass incomplete to FLOYD, Marcus, dropped pass, PENALTY ODU roughing passer (TOAL, Pat) 15 yards to the ODU40, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
63.3%
RINELLA, Alex field goal attempt from 57 MISSED - short,, clock 00:00, PENALTY ODU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the ODU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+92
66.6%
Alex Rinella 52 yd FG MISSED for a 1ST down , Isaiah Harper return for 83 yds to the WKent 0 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the WKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
4.6%
Nick Rice 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Nick Rice 26 yd FG GOOD
-62
TD · Q4 0:09
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 6 yds for a TD Timeout WESTRN KENTUCKY, clock 00:09 (Nick Rice KICK)
-42.3
TD · Q4 5:40
Kesean Strong run for 2 yds for a TD Timeout OLDDOMINION, clock 05:40 (Blake LaRussa pass to Cornell Hendrick Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
-41.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com