2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:33 · Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Tyre Brady
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 5:31: Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +12.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:29: Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +10.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:08: Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) OLDDOMINION Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — MRSH win probability +10.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:01: Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 16 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +14.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:05: Tyler King run for 65 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +8.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 15:00MRSH 4th & 1 at ODU 47, tiedClose callPunted · 57.7% before the snapGo for it57.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:43ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snapGo for it43.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%average punt
- Q1 10:20MRSH 4th & 6 at ODU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snapGo for it56.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.5%average punt
- Q2 13:54ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 17, down 7Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snapGo for it39.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:30MRSH 4th & 4 at ODU 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.9%48% to convertField goal60.5%−0.554% to makePunt59.8%−1.2average punt
- Q2 8:27ODU 4th & 23 at ODU 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snapGo for it28.2%−2.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%average punt
- Q2 3:33MRSH 4th & 4 at ODU 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.4%48% to convertField goal71.6%−0.851% to makePunt70.2%−2.2average punt
- Q2 3:28ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.5%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:18ODU 4th & 2 at MRSH 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snapGo for it25.9%−0.756% to convertField goalTheir call26.7%85% to makePunt23.1%−3.6average punt
- Q3 14:53ODU 4th & 22 at ODU 21, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snapGo for it26.5%−2.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.5%average punt
- Q3 12:55MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 27, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snapGo for it68.0%−2.515% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.6%average punt
- Q3 11:04ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 33, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it25.4%−2.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.8%average punt
- Q3 3:24MRSH 4th & 5 at ODU 44, up 11Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snapGo for it77.4%41% to convertField goal75.6%−1.727% to makePuntTheir call77.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 12:40ODU 4th & 4 at MRSH 24, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.8%47% to convertField goalTheir call19.2%−0.668% to makePunt14.0%−5.9average punt
- Q4 12:40MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 43, up 8Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it81.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.2%−1.0average punt
- Q4 9:45ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 7, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snapGo for it15.7%−1.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.9%average punt
- Q4 2:47ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 47, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q2 14:00MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.8%97% to makeGo for two58.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:33MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.9%97% to makeGo for two66.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:31MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.9%97% to makeGo for two85.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:29ODU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.0%97% to makeGo for two19.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:08MRSH Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:01ODU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.7 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call11.2%−1.797% to makeGo for two13.0%45% to convert
- Q4 3:05MRSH Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:53MRSH Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMRSHDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.8%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
39.8%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 14 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
39.8%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Obi Obialo for 5 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2FUMBLE3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
40.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 5 yds to the ODU 13Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+6
40.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 6 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
40.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 3 yds Jonathan Duhart fumbled, forced by Frankie Hernandez, recovered by Marsh Frankie HernandezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
40.3%
Alex Thomson pass intercepted Oshane Ximines return for 14 yds to the ODU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
MRSHDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
41.2%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, personal foul (Oshane Ximines) to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6INT11 plays · 70 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q1 7:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+32
42.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 32 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+20
42.9%
Will Knight run for 5 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
43.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Keion White for 3 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
42.8%
Blake LaRussa pass intercepted Malik Gant return for no gain to the Marsh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD11 plays · 88 yds · 3:5157% → 64%
Q1 2:51
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
43.4%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Tyre Brady, broken up by Lance BoykinSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+7
43.8%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 7 yds to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-10
43.2%
THOMSON, Alex rush for 6 yards to the MAR32, out-of-bounds (MISKEL, Kane), PENALTY MAR holding (GAINES, Xavier) 10 yards to the MAR16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+19
43.5%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Marcel Williams for 19 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+23
42.2%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Willie Johnson for 23 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
36.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 22 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
MRSHDrive 9TD12 plays · 60 yds · 3:5763% → 74%
Q2 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+19
36.6%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 19 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+11
36.1%
THOMSON, Alex pass incomplete to BRADY, Tyre, PENALTY ODU pass interference (HALL, Geronda) 11 yards to the ODU3, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+9
37.4%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Artie Henry III for 9 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.4%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 3 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
28.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Noah Ellison for 3 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-5
29.0%
Blake LaRussa run for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 34 Blake LaRussa fumbled, recovered by ODU Blake LaRussaSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-6
27.8%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Ty Tyler for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 28Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 23
OWN 23
+29
27.7%
Bailey Cate punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 36 , Marcel Williams returns for 29 yds to the ODU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11DOWNS9 plays · 4 yds · 2:1475% → 75%
ODUDrive 12FG16 plays · 55 yds · 3:1026% → 29%
Q2 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
26.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 6 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
27.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 8 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+18
26.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Will Knight for 18 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
27.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 3 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
28.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 4 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+8
27.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Cornell Hendrick Jr. for 8 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
28.0%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Nazeeh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+5
27.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Cornell Hendrick Jr. for 5 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
ODUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · -12 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
29.0%
KNIGHT, Will rush for no gain to the ODU33 (THOMPSON, Malik), PENALTY ODU holding (MAGWOOD, Eric) 10 yards to the ODU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 24
OWN 19
+9
28.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 9 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 15
OWN 28
-7
27.4%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Marquis Couch and Ryan Bee for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 21Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 22
OWN 21
0
26.9%
Bailey Cate punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nick Mathews at the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
ODUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
MRSHDrive 17TD9 plays · 73 yds · 3:1876% → 92%
Q3 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+33
24.6%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 33 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
22.7%
Anthony Anderson run for 12 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0213% → 26%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
13.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Donta Anthony Jr. for 29 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
14.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 21 yds to the Marsh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
15.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Donta Anthony Jr. for 7 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q3 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
15.8%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
23.0%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 15 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
21.0%
Alex Thomson sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 46Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+8
22.0%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Anthony Anderson for 8 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
22.8%
Robert LeFevre punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Darrell Brown at the ODU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20FG10 plays · 70 yds · 2:4321% → 25%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+27
20.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Keion White for 27 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+11
19.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Keion White for 11 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
22.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 16 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
24.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 10 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
19.6%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 5 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
MRSHDrive 23TD4 plays · 43 yds · 1:4685% → 96%
Q4 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.0%
Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) OLDDOMINION Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24TD11 plays · 67 yds · 2:016% → 22%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
6.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Cornell Hendrick Jr. for 5 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+10
6.9%
LARUSSA, Blake pass incomplete to HARPER, Isaiah, PENALTY MAR holding (MOODY, Donyae) 10 yards to the ODU48, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
7.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 4 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+12
6.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 12 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
6.4%
MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Marquis Couch) to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
21.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 16 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5690% → 98%
Q4 5:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
10.3%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Artie Henry III for 6 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26DOWNS9 plays · 12 yds · 0:133% → 3%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.3%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
3.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 4 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.1%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
3.0%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
3.1%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Brandon DraytonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27TD5 plays · 47 yds · 0:2099% → 100%
ODUDrive 28END OF GAME11 plays · 57 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
0.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (16 Yards) to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+9
0.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 9 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+11
0.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Will Knight for 11 yds to the Marsh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:01
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 16 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)
+14.2
TD · Q3 5:31
Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 3:29
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)
+10.6