2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Bailey Cate punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:15: Kesean Strong run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +9.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 6:08: Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 31 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +16.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 5:55: Brad Davis kickoff for 65 yds , Kerrith Whyte Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas PAT MISSED) — FAU win probability +16.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:13: Kesean Strong run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake LaRussa intercepted ) — ODU win probability +14.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:43: Devin Singletary run for 30 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +14.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 13:20ODU 4th & 1 at FAU 13, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.3%71% to convertField goal18.2%−0.185% to makePunt17.7%−0.6average punt
- Q1 6:41FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 42, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it81.0%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q1 5:07ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 14, down 6Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it19.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.8%−0.3average punt
- Q1 3:04FAU 4th & 4 at ODU 46, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.2%48% to convertField goal80.7%−0.523% to makePunt81.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 15:00ODU 4th & 24 at ODU 43, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snapGo for it18.9%−1.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.0%average punt
- Q2 11:30ODU 4th & 13 at ODU 44, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it15.5%−0.520% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.1%average punt
- Q2 8:11FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 44, up 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt85.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 9:54FAU 4th & 19 at FAU 46, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snapGo for it86.1%−2.011% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.1%average punt
- Q3 5:47ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 42, down 11Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it14.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%−1.0average punt
- Q3 3:16FAU 4th & 10 at ODU 36, up 11Close callWent for it · 87.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.6%−<0.130% to convertField goal87.6%42% to makePunt87.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 15:00ODU 4th & 6 at FAU 26, down 11Close callWent for it · 12.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.7%−0.239% to convertField goal12.9%64% to makePunt9.0%−3.9average punt
- Q4 10:43ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 39, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.5%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:20FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick81.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call81.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:30FAU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick84.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call84.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:15ODU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.4%97% to makeGo for two20.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:41FAU Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.2%97% to makeGo for two85.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:29FAU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:54ODU Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.5%97% to makeGo for two11.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:08ODU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.6%97% to makeGo for two22.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:55FAU Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:43FAU Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 6:43FAU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%−0.397% to makeGo for two98.1%45% to convert
- Q4 4:02ODU Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick4.2%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call4.2%45% to convert
- Q4 2:17FAU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick99.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call98.8%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4082% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
81.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 44 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
81.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 13 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
81.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 9 yds to the ODU 9Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.6%
Harrison Bryant 5 Yd pass from Chris Robison (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2DOWNS14 plays · 64 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
81.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 3 yds to the ODU 26Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
81.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 6 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+7
81.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Keion White for 7 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+11
81.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 11 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
80.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 13 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
80.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 12 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
81.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 1 yd to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
81.1%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Jordan YoungSimilar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+3
80.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 3 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 3:04
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
80.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris Harrison, broken up by Pat Toal Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 2:0121% → 20%
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
79.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 3 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+8
79.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 8 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
78.9%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 45
-12
79.3%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Hunter Snyder and Azeez Al-Shaair for a loss of 12 yards to the ODU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD10 plays · 84 yds · 2:3980% → 86%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
80.2%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
80.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 6 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+17
80.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 17 yds to the ODU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 11:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+21
83.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 21 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9DOWNS7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
ODUDrive 10TD3 plays · 44 yds · 0:4316% → 26%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
83.8%
LARUSSA, Blake sacked for loss of 6 yards to the 50 yardline (AL-SHAAIR, Azee), PENALTY FAU personal foul (AL-SHAAIR, Azee) 15 yards to the FAU29, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+27
83.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 27 yds to the FlAtl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11TD10 plays · 81 yds · 2:3479% → 88%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
78.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Kerrith Whyte Jr. for 8 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+17
79.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Kerrith Whyte Jr. for 17 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
88.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 22 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12INT6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Keion White, broken up by Herb Miller IIISimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
86.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 21Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+15
86.8%
LARUSSA, Blake pass intercepted by PIERRE, James at the ODU38, PIERRE, James return to the ODU38, PIERRE, James for loss of 11 yards to the ODU49 (WHITE, Keion), PENALTY FAU roughing passer (BAGNER, Ernest) 15 yards to the ODU36, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
86.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 15 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
85.5%
Blake LaRussa pass intercepted Chris Tooley return for 1 yd to the FlAtl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13TD7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1288% → 95%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+41
88.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 41 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 12 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15TD13 plays · 79 yds · 5:069% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
91.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 15 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
90.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Donta Anthony Jr. for 5 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
90.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 16 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
90.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 5 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+14
89.9%
LARUSSA, Blake pass incomplete to DUHART, J., PENALTY FAU pass interference (PIERRE, James) 14 yards to the FAU5, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
86.2%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Zyon Gilbert) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
88.3%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 35 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+20
87.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 20 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-10
88.8%
Chris Robison sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 10 yards to the FLAATLANTC 46 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, intentional grounding (Chris Robison) to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 19
OWN 46
0
87.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Devin Singletary, broken up by Jordan YoungSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
87.0%
Sebastian Riella punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Harper at the ODU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17TD5 plays · 79 yds · 2:1613% → 30%
Q3 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+9
86.9%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 9 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
86.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 16 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
85.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 22 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
69.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 31 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
87.6%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 9 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+5
87.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the ODU 39Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+3
86.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 3 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
87.4%
Bailey Cate punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 52 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
89.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 13 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
89.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 23 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+5
88.5%
ROBISON, Chris pass incomplete to HARRISON, T, PENALTY ODU offside (ROSS, Juwan) 5 yards to the ODU31, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21TD9 plays · 64 yds · 3:1511% → 28%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
88.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 4 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+19
88.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 19 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
87.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 11 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+10
88.6%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 10 yds to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
72.4%
Kesean Strong run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake LaRussa intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:3080% → 95%
ODUDrive 23INT9 plays · 25 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
93.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 9 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
92.9%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 8 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+2
92.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 2 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
92.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 4 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
92.7%
Blake LaRussa pass intercepted Shelton Lewis return for 3 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24TD5 plays · 59 yds · 1:1395% → 99%
Q4 7:56
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+16
95.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 16 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25TD9 plays · 74 yds · 2:252% → 4%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.5%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Shelton LewisSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
97.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 1 yd to the ODU 40Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
97.6%
LARUSSA, Blake pass incomplete to BUNDU-FITZ, A., PENALTY FAU pass interference (HAFIZ, Quran) 15 yards to the FAU45, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
97.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Akim Bundu-Fitz for 4 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+31
97.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 31 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.0%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by James PierreSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Kesean Strong for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 27TD6 plays · 54 yds · 1:4597% → 99%
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.3%
Devin Singletary run for 44 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 28Uncategorized8 plays · 51 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+10
98.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 10 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
98.6%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 6 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
98.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Will Knight for 4 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+14
98.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Will Knight for 14 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
98.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 10 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:55
Brad Davis kickoff for 65 yds , Kerrith Whyte Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas PAT MISSED)
+16.1
TD · Q3 6:08
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 31 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)
-16
TD · Q4 10:43
Devin Singletary run for 30 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
+14.8