2018 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2018 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:08 · Bailey Cate punt for 50 yds, downed at the Charl 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 4:27: Jonathan Cruz 36 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +8.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:38: Lala Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ODU win probability +15.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:39: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 4 yds for a TD (B. LeMay Run For Two-point Conversion) — CLT win probability +17.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:45: Aaron McAllister run for 14 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +20.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:57: Steven Williams pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +24.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snapGo for it47.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.6%average punt
- Q1 12:08ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snapGo for it51.6%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.6%average punt
- Q1 6:03ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.5%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%average punt
- Q1 5:07ODU 4th & 1 at CLT 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.3%70% to convertField goal46.7%−0.691% to makePunt45.1%−2.2average punt
- Q2 11:25CLT 4th & 8 at ODU 24, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snapGo for it52.8%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call53.0%68% to makePunt50.9%−2.1average punt
- Q2 11:25ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 44, down 4Close callPunted · 46.8% before the snapGo for it46.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 4:27CLT 4th & 3 at ODU 19, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snapGo for it57.5%51% to convertField goalTheir call57.0%−0.577% to makePunt52.7%−4.9average punt
- Q2 0:28CLT 4th & 11 at ODU 44, up 1Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it55.4%−0.327% to convertField goal55.7%27% to makePuntTheir call55.3%−0.3average punt
- Q3 6:39ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snapGo for it38.4%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.1%average punt
- Q3 5:16CLT 4th & 10 at ODU 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snapGo for it60.4%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00CLT 4th & 1 at ODU 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.8%70% to convertField goal57.9%−6.928% to makePunt59.5%−5.3average punt
- Q4 6:15CLT 4th & 4 at ODU 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.6%47% to convertField goal90.4%−0.275% to makePunt86.1%−4.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
- Q1 6:03CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.4%97% to makeGo for two52.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:02ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call49.2%97% to makeGo for two49.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:51ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick45.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call45.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:38ODU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick61.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call61.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 6:39CLT Touchdown, up 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick61.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call60.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:45CLT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 2:57ODU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 2.9 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call16.2%−2.997% to makeGo for two19.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 4 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
52.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 8 yds to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+57
52.5%
Kyle Corbett punt for 57 yds , Isaiah Harper returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
53.0%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Alex HighsmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3TD9 plays · 61 yds · 4:4153% → 58%
Q1 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
53.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Chris Phillips for 10 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+12
53.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 12 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
53.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 13 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+7
53.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Rico Arnold for 7 yds to the ODU 18Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
57.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 18 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 6:03
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
57.5%
Bailey Cate punt for 56 yds , Mark Quattlebaum returns for no gain to the Charl 16 Mark Quattlebaum fumbled, recovered by ODU Jake HerslowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5TD6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0544% → 47%
Q1 5:07
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+11
56.2%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 11 yds to the Charl 10Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
56.3%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 3 yds to the Charl 7Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+3
56.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 3 yds to the Charl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6FG14 plays · 51 yds · 6:3755% → 57%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
57.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 9 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
CLTDrive 8FG8 plays · 63 yds · 3:4159% → 66%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
58.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Benny LeMay for 7 yds to the Charl 25Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+10
59.0%
Benny LeMay run for 10 yds to the Charl 35 Benny LeMay fumbled, forced by Geronda Hall, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
58.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Chris Phillips for 20 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
60.7%
Benny LeMay run for 4 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ODU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+9
60.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 9 yds to the ODU 19Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 3
OWN 0
0
57.5%
Benny LeMay run for no gain to the ODU 19 OLDDOMINION Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the ODU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3635% → 47%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
64.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Darrell Brown for 20 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+19
62.3%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 19 yds to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
52.6%
Lala Davis run for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 1:2359% → 57%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
59.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Benny LeMay for 6 yds to the Charl 36Similar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
60.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 16 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
61.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 3 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-4
61.7%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2242% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.1%
DAVIS, Lala rush for no gain to the ODU25 (BUTLER, Anthony), PENALTY CHA personal foul (BUTLER, Anthony) 15 yards to the ODU40, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+23
55.9%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 23 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.9%
Lala Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5943% → 66%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 7 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
46.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor Tucker, broken up by Sean CarterSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
46.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 6 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+4
46.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 4 yds to the ODU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
48.1%
Benny LeMay run for 11 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, personal foul (Kane Miskel) to the ODU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 4 yds for a TD (B. LeMay Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 6:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
61.1%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Timmy HorneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
63.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 5 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+15
63.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 15 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+49
62.2%
Kyle Corbett punt for 49 yds for a touchback OLDDOMINION Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16INT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.2%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Jeremy Cox, broken up by Timmy HorneSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+13
65.0%
Steven Williams pass complete to Marcus Joyner for 13 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
64.7%
Steven Williams pass intercepted Marquavis Gibbs return for no gain to the Charl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17TD12 plays · 71 yds · 6:4164% → 89%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+18
64.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 18 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
67.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 2 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
68.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18INT6 plays · 40 yds · 0:0012% → 16%
Q4 8:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
88.6%
Steven Williams pass complete to Keion White for 9 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+32
87.3%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 32 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+47
84.4%
Steven Williams pass intercepted Juwan Foggie return for 47 yds to the ODU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19DOWNS6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5791% → 92%
Q4 6:15
4TH & 4
OPP 20
0
92.3%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Mark Quattlebaum, broken up by Justin NoyeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20TD12 plays · 80 yds · 3:136% → 32%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
94.2%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 5 yds to the ODU 25Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
93.6%
Steven Williams pass complete to Gemonta Jackson for 12 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
93.5%
Steven Williams sacked by Alex Highsmith and Timmy Horne for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 36Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+12
94.4%
Steven Williams pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 12 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+35
93.0%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 35 yds to the Charl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
91.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Keion White for 7 yds to the Charl 6Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
92.5%
WILLIAMS, S. pass incomplete to ELLISON, Noah (ANDERSON, DJ), PENALTY CHA pass interference (ANDERSON, DJ) 2 yards to the CHA2, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.0%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21END OF GAME7 plays · 5 yds · 0:5788% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:57
Steven Williams pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)
-24.5
TD · Q4 8:45
Aaron McAllister run for 14 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+20.1
TD · Q3 6:39
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 4 yds for a TD (B. LeMay Run For Two-point Conversion)
+17.9