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NCSU

NC State 34 at North Carolina 28

UNC
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+27.5UNC 57.2%Javonte Williams run for 8 yds for aTD (Cade Fortin pass to Carl Tuckerfor Two-Point Conversion)AWAY 21 - HOME 21 · Q3 1:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:31 · Javonte Williams run for 8 yds for a TD (Cade Fortin pass to Carl Tucker for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 123Pregame prior−4.6Home team on offense+5.0Score differential−0.9Time remaining−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:03: Cade Fortin pass complete to Beau Corrales for 37 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +20.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:31: Javonte Williams run for 8 yds for a TD (Cade Fortin pass to Carl Tucker for Two-Point Conversion) — UNC win probability +27.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:29: Cade Fortin run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +26.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:00: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +35.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD — NCSU win probability +30.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:11NCSU 4th & 4 at UNC 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:47UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:05UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:20NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 1 at NCSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%−1.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:07UNC 4th & 7 at NCSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:07NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 47, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:02UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:37NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:16UNC 4th & 18 at NCSU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:42NCSU 4th & 8 at UNC 43, up 1
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 3 at UNC 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    51.6%−4.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:29NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:27UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−2.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:55UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−2.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:54NCSU 4th & 8 at UNC 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    50.1%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:09NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:21NCSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:03UNC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:58NCSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:31UNC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:29UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:00NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.5%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.5%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
33.5%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
33.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
33.8%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
33.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+15
33.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for no gain to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Greg Ross) to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
33.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
33.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-2
33.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
33.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds, downed at the NCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
35.2%
Cade Fortin run for 2 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
35.2%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
35.0%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
34.9%
Hunter Lent punt for 1 ydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 1:3865% → 67%
Q1 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
34.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 3 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
34.0%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Michael Carter for 5 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
34.0%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
33.9%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Nick McCloudSimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
33.7%
Hunter Lent punt for 48 yds, downed at the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
33.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+12
33.4%
Finley, R. middle pass incomplete to Harmon, K. (Ross, G), PENALTY NC pass interference (Ross, G) 12 yards to the ST44, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
33.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
33.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
33.3%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Corey Bell Jr. return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
50
+1
34.9%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-1
34.8%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 10
50
+10
34.2%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
35.0%
Dazz Newsome run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
35.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Roscoe Johnson, broken up by Stephen GriffinSimilar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+5
34.8%
Cade Fortin pass intercepted Teshaun Smith return for 5 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
33.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+4
33.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+7
33.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+15
33.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 30 yds NC STATE Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:0235% → 38%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
34.9%
Javonte Williams run for 16 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
35.3%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
35.8%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
35.3%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+1
34.7%
Cade Fortin run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
36.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+18
36.0%
Jordon Brown run for 18 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
36.0%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
36.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
35.3%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 13:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
38.0%
Freeman Jones 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
37.3%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Joshua Fedd-Jackson) to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
37.5%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+19
38.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 19 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
36.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
36.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
36.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
37.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
37.5%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
37.5%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+6
36.7%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 6 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
36.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 47 yds, downed at the NCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
36.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 6 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
36.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
36.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
37.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 53 yds, downed at the NCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:3837% → 40%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
36.7%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+10
36.6%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
37.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+17
36.8%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Darian Roseboro) to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
37.4%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Javonte Williams for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
38.6%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+14
36.9%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Beau Corrales for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
50
+19
39.5%
Cade Fortin run for 19 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
40.5%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 13 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
40.5%
Cade Fortin run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
40.4%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 11
OPP 19
-7
39.2%
Cade Fortin sacked by Alim McNeill for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
40.3%
Freeman Jones 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:3461% → 60%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
39.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
38.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+18
38.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 18 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
37.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+2
37.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+8
37.8%
Ryan Finley sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 43 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Garrett Bradbury , return for 0 yards , return for 8 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
39.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
41.7%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3960% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
38.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+20
40.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 20 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
37.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+1
37.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+5
37.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 5 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
37.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
36.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
37.4%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+24
36.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 24 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
36.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Greg RossSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:1228% → 49%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
27.8%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Jordon Brown for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+38
27.8%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 38 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
48.6%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Beau Corrales for 37 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0558% → 79%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
42.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
42.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 5 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
41.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
39.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
39.9%
Ryan Finley run for 6 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
39.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 15 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
20.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 34 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1724% → 57%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
24.3%
Javonte Williams run for 22 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
27.2%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dyami Brown for 21 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
29.6%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete, broken up by Isaiah MooreSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+24
29.5%
Jordon Brown run for 24 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
29.6%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCSt 8Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
57.2%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds for a TD (Cade Fortin pass to Carl Tucker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:3153% → 55%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
47.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 15 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
44.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
43.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
42.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+1
42.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-1
42.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
45.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for no gain to the NCaro 8 Dazz Newsome fumbled, recovered by NCaro Dazz NewsomeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 5:3151% → 85%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
50.6%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 17 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.5%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
52.5%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, broken up by Stephen GriffinSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+51
50.7%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 51 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
59.0%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+10
58.8%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+7
57.0%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
59.1%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.1%
Cade Fortin run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Corey Bell Jr.Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
76.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+13
78.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 37 , Dazz Newsome returns for 13 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
83.7%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
84.4%
Cade Fortin run for no gain to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
83.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
81.7%
Hunter Lent punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:0318% → 62%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+26
81.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 26 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
76.6%
Thayer Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+30
77.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 30 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
73.8%
Finley, R. pass incomplete to Riley, CJ (Rene, P), PENALTY NC pass interference (Rene, P) 13 yards to the NC5, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
53.5%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
55.7%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
54.4%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Carl Tucker for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
54.2%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dyami Brown for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
55.5%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
52.4%
Hunter Lent punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:3353% → 53%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
47.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 18 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
44.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+14
42.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 14 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
40.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-1
41.1%
Ryan Finley sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
42.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas, broken up by Cole HolcombSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
46.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 28 yds, downed at the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
12 plays · 0 yds · 15:4155% → 59%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
55.1%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Beau Corrales for 6 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+25
55.0%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 25 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
63.0%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Beau Corrales for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
62.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete, broken up by Xavier LyasSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
62.2%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson, broken up by Tyler Baker-WilliamsSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
64.7%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
64.7%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCSt 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
62.4%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
58.6%
Freeman Jones 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28TD
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
40.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+5
42.7%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
40.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+3
40.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:00
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-35.8
TD · OT 0:00
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD
-30.8
TD · Q3 1:31
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds for a TD (Cade Fortin pass to Carl Tucker for Two-Point Conversion)
+27.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com