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NCSU

NC State 52 at Louisville 10

LOU
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · A.J. Cole III punt for 52 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for no gain to the Lvile 17 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense−1.6Pregame prior−32.3Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 9:26: Blanton Creque 32 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +2.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:31: Christopher Dunn 23 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:56: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:31: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 18 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:10: Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 12 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26LOU 4th & 10 at NCSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:00LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:35LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:31NCSU 4th & 5 at LOU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:30LOU 4th & 15 at NCSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:31LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:29NCSU 4th & 19 at LOU 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:03LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:10LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 32, down 28
    Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 5:50NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:56NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:31NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:10NCSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:49NCSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:45NCSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:44LOU Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:00NCSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
12.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
12.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 2 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+5
12.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 5 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+26
12.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 41 yds NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:0613% → 16%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
13.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+7
13.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 7 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
13.2%
Colin Wilson run for 4 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+15
13.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 15 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
13.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 11 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
13.2%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
13.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+2
13.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Colin Wilson for 2 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
15.5%
Blanton Creque 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:3685% → 85%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
15.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
15.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
15.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, (5 Yards) to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+6
15.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
15.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 5 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+5
15.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 5 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
15.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 9
50
+12
15.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 12 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
15.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+8
15.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
15.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 25 yds for a TD LOUISVILLE Penalty, (1 Yards) to the Lvile 2 (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5016% → 16%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
16.2%
Colin Wilson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
16.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
16.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-1
17.0%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Xavier Lyas and Germaine Pratt for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
16.4%
Mason King punt for 52 yds, downed at the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:1083% → 81%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
17.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 7Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+7
17.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+6
17.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Cary Angeline for 6 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
16.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
17.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Dylan Autenrieth for no gain to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
18.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
18.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 52 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for no gain to the Lvile 17 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
18.4%
Tutu Atwell sacked by Eurndraus Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 15
OWN 16
-6
18.2%
Colin Wilson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 19 LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-9 Yards) to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+5
17.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 16
OWN 15
0
17.7%
Mason King punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:0682% → 83%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
18.0%
Maurice Trowell run for 9 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-2
17.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
18.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
17.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+27
17.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Dylan Autenrieth for 27 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
17.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Dylan AutenriethSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
17.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the Lvile 5Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas, broken up by Dorian EtheridgeSimilar
Q2 9:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
16.7%
Christopher Dunn 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:0117% → 18%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
17.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Micky Crum for 12 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
17.7%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+17
18.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 17 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
19.0%
Hassan Hall run for 32 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
19.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Mekhi Becton) to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 15
OPP 18
0
19.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Hassan Hall, broken up by James Smith-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 15
OPP 18
-5
19.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Micky Crum) to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 20
OPP 23
+1
18.8%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 19
OPP 22
-11
18.5%
Cunningham, Mal rush left for 22 yards to the ST0, clock 06:19, PENALTY LOU holding (Thomas, Ken.) 11 yards to the ST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 30
OPP 33
+15
18.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Hassan Hall for 15 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
17.7%
Blanton Creque 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:3482% → 89%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
17.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 9 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
16.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
17.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
16.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
16.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
16.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas, broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
16.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 14 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
16.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
15.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+11
16.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
15.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 20 yds to the Lvile 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
15.9%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:4613% → 12%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
12.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
13.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+13
13.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Hassan Hall for 13 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
12.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 11 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
12.6%
Colin Wilson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
12.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins, broken up by Chris IngramSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-3
12.4%
Malik Cunningham sacked by James Smith-Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 22 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by NCSt Isaiah Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:4189% → 94%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
11.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
5.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 18 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.8%
Colin Wilson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
7.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
7.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
7.6%
Mason King punt for 38 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 7 yds to the NCSt 33 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+28
5.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 28 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
5.3%
Ryan Finley sacked by Tabarius Peterson and Dorian Etheridge for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 19
OPP 48
0
5.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 19
OPP 48
0
5.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
5.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 47 yds, downed at the Lvile 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
7.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 4
-2
7.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Micky Crum) to the Lvile 2Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
7.1%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
7.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete, broken up by Shug FrazierSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+1
7.0%
Mason King punt for 38 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:2996% → 98%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
4.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 27 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
2.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 12 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
3.2%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
3.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
3.1%
Jawon Pass run for no gain to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
3.1%
Mason King punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:1198% → 99%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
2.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 18 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
2.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 11 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+35
1.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 35 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 6 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
1.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 16 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
1.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 29 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.1%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
1.1%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted Jarius Morehead return for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 99 yds · 5:5299% → 100%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
0.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+15
1.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Amonte Caban) to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
0.7%
Finley, R. deep pass incomplete to Harmon, K., PENALTY LOU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the ST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+3
0.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+13
0.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 13 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
0.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
0.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 46Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+12
0.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 12 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
0.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+8
0.4%
Ryan Finley run for 8 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+24
0.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 24 yds to the Lvile 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 3 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+26
0.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 26 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
0.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 21 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
0.3%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+6
0.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+20
0.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 20 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:44100% → 100%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Brady Bodine run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
0.3%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 5 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
0.3%
Matthew McKay run for 4 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
0.3%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+14
0.3%
Brady Bodine run for 14 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.3%
Matthew McKay pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+18
0.3%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 18 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
0.3%
Matthew McKay run for 1 yd to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
0.3%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 2 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+17
0.3%
Matthew McKay run for 17 yds to the Lvile 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
0.2%
Brady Bodine run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 6Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
0.3%
Matthew McKay pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 5 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, ( Yards) to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Brady Bodine run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23END OF GAME
15 plays · 95 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
0.1%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 2 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile Malik Cunningham , return for no gain to the Lvile 2Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+8
0.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 8 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+7
0.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Keion Wakefield for 7 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
0.1%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+16
0.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 16 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+28
0.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 28 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
0.1%
Colin Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+3
0.1%
Jawon Pass run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+29
0.1%
Colin Wilson run for 29 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
0.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
0.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:31
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 18 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-5.3
TD · Q2 0:56
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-3.8
FG · Q1 9:26
Blanton Creque 32 yd FG GOOD
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com