Try the model
WAKE

Wake Forest 27 at NC State 23

NCSU
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2018 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:07 · Dom Maggio punt for 28 yds, downed at the NCSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+33.0Home team on offense+1.9Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:36: Ryan Finley run for 2 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:05: Jamie Newman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 38 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +16.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 14:53: Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 35 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:07: Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 19 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +24.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:30: Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +72.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:04NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:42NCSU 4th & 10 at WAKE 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:28WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:10NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:32WAKE 4th & 6 at NCSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:52NCSU 4th & 6 at WAKE 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:07WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:10NCSU 4th & 3 at WAKE 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:47WAKE 4th & 10 at NCSU 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:22WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:43NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:47WAKE 4th & 4 at NCSU 16, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:51NCSU 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:30WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:40NCSU 4th & 5 at WAKE 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−6.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:05WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:16NCSU 4th & 3 at WAKE 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−1.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:39NCSU 4th & 3 at WAKE 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−1.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−20.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 4:36NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:05WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:53NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:07WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.9
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:30WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2691% → 91%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
50
-3
90.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
90.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
90.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
90.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 41 yds , Greg Dortch returns for no gain to the WFrst 12 Greg Dortch fumbled, recovered by NCSt C.J. RileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0891% → 91%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
90.7%
Jakobi Meyers run for 1 yd to the WFrst 11Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-1
90.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 12Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
90.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
90.5%
Christopher Dunn 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:5710% → 10%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
90.4%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
90.3%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+4
90.2%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
90.0%
Jamie Newman sacked by Isaiah Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-4
89.9%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+55
89.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSTATE 30 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:5890% → 89%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
89.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 11 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
89.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
89.5%
Jakobi Meyers pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
89.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+47
89.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 47 yds , Greg Dortch returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:2611% → 12%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
89.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 7 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
89.1%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
89.0%
Cade Carney run for 9 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
88.8%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.7%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
88.7%
Cade Carney run for 10 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
88.5%
Newman, Jamie pass incomplete to Washington, Scotty, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Morrison, Stephen) 10 yards to the NCSTATE41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
88.4%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-1
88.2%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+2
88.1%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
88.2%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:2988% → 88%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
88.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+18
88.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
50
+25
88.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 25 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
88.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 17 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
88.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 13Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
87.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the WFrst 6Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
88.4%
Christopher Dunn 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2812% → 12%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.9%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
87.7%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
88.0%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
88.0%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 5 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
88.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 28 yds, downed at the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5089% → 88%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
88.5%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
88.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+7
88.1%
Ryan Finley run for 7 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
88.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Greg Dortch at the WFrst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:1513% → 15%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+28
87.3%
Cade Carney run for 28 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
86.7%
Jamie Newman run for 5 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
86.2%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+26
86.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 26 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
85.5%
Carney, Cade rush for 3 yards to the NCSTATE26, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Chapman, Brandon) 10 yards to the NCSTATE39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 20
OPP 39
-3
86.1%
Jamie Newman sacked by James Smith-Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 23
OPP 42
+13
86.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 13 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
85.3%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
84.8%
Nick Sciba 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0285% → 89%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
84.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 3 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
84.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
85.5%
Ryan Finley run for 4 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+19
84.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 19 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
85.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+12
85.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 12 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
85.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 9 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+6
85.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
85.2%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
85.2%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete to Meyers, Jakobi, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference (Glenn, Cameron) 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.0%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5312% → 11%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
88.0%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 13 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
87.7%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Jake Benzinger) to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+6
88.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 6 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
87.7%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
88.1%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+42
88.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSTATE 29 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Damontay Rhem) to the NCSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 1:3288% → 87%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
88.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+4
88.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
88.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
88.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
88.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
88.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 4 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-6
88.8%
Ryan Finley sacked by Cameron Glenn for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
87.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
87.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 38 yds, downed at the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:3013% → 13%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
87.5%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
87.0%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:5812% → 16%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
87.7%
Jamie Newman run for 27 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.3%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
86.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 8 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
87.1%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
87.1%
Matt Colburn run for 15 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
86.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+7
86.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 7 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-2
86.8%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 16Similar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
84.0%
Nick Sciba 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3986% → 85%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
86.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 18 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
87.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
87.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 5 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-8
87.3%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard line Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Reggie Gallaspy II , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 11
50
0
85.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Greg Dortch at the WFrst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1616% → 14%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
84.5%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-3
84.7%
Jamie Newman run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 13Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 13
OWN 13
-1
85.2%
Jamie Newman sacked by Isaiah Moore and James Smith-Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 12Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+6
85.6%
Dom Maggio punt for 36 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 6 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:4188% → 89%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.3%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
88.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 5 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+5
87.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 5 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
88.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+5
88.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 5 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+15
87.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 15 yds to the WFrst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
88.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 3 yds to the WFrst 8Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
88.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+2
87.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 2 yds to the WFrst 6Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
88.7%
Christopher Dunn 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:0512% → 27%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
88.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 13Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+6
88.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 6 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+43
88.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 43 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
72.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 38 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5777% → 90%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
75.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 12 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
77.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 24 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
79.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
78.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+35
90.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 35 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:4111% → 10%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
87.9%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
88.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 4 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
87.9%
Jamie Newman run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
89.3%
Jamie Newman run for no gain to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-4
90.0%
Jamie Newman sacked by Larrell Murchison and Isaiah Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 31Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
90.4%
Dom Maggio punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3990% → 90%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
90.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-3
89.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+22
89.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 22 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
90.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
90.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
89.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:5310% → 35%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
89.7%
Jamie Newman run for no gain to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
90.2%
Jamie Newman run for 8 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
89.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 5 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
88.8%
Jamie Newman run for 8 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+2
89.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
90.1%
Jamie Newman run for 11 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
89.4%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
89.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 8 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+19
65.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 19 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23DOWNS
15 plays · 54 yds · 4:1177% → 89%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
76.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 2 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+12
76.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 12 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
78.8%
Person Jr., Ricky rush for 11 yards to the WAKEFOREST49, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Autenrieth, Dylan) 10 yards to the NCSTATE30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+13
80.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 13 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+12
83.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 12 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
87.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+20
87.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 5 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
90.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-2
91.0%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 31Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+11
89.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 11 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 3
OPP 20
0
89.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:0414% → 92%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
85.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
84.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 6 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
85.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 22 yds to the NCSTATE 47 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
81.6%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
84.3%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+15
86.0%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 15 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
80.6%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
7.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25Uncategorized
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:1117% → 15%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
16.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+21
16.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 21 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
15.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 11 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:30
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
-72.9
TD · Q4 6:07
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 19 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
-24.4
TD · Q3 2:05
Jamie Newman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 38 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
-16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com