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FSU

Florida State 28 at NC State 47

NCSU
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.4NCSU 89.0%Christopher Dunn 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 30 · Q3 8:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:49 · Christopher Dunn 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Home team on offense+17.9Pregame prior+9.1Score differential+7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Garbage-time factor+5.5Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:13: Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:36: James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 35 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:14: Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:26: James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 8 yds for a TD FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 8 (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:08: James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 10 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 11:59NCSU 4th & 1 at FSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:00NCSU 4th & 7 at FSU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:10NCSU 4th & 3 at FSU 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:47FSU 4th & 18 at FSU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:01NCSU 4th & 6 at FSU 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:02NCSU 4th & 2 at FSU 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:07FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.4%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:02NCSU 4th & 1 at FSU 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−1.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:49NCSU 4th & 5 at FSU 14, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−5.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:09FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 28, down 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:24FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 25, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:15FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 42, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:27FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 49, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:35NCSU 4th & 8 at FSU 21, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:13FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 49, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:31FSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 15, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:17NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 22, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:47FSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 46, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:35NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:13NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:36FSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:14NCSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:26FSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:32NCSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:08FSU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:10NCSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:40FSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1573% → 73%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
72.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
72.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+19
72.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 19 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
72.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
72.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 9 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
72.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Dylan AutenriethSimilar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+22
72.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 22 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
72.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
72.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD FLORIDA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST down (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:2727% → 27%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
73.1%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+18
73.2%
Cam Akers run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
73.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 4 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
73.1%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
73.1%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
73.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
72.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49 Jacques Patrick fumbled, recovered by NCSt James Smith-WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2074% → 73%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
73.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
73.9%
Jakobi Meyers pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
73.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
73.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5027% → 26%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-7
73.4%
James Blackman sacked by Alim McNeill for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 17
OWN 2
-1
73.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 18
OWN 1
+3
73.6%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 15
OWN 4
+11
73.9%
Cam Akers run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 4
OWN 15
+14
74.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 49 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:3574% → 74%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
50
-5
74.3%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+1
74.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+17
73.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 17 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
74.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
74.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+3
74.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
74.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+12
74.7%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 12 yards to the FLORIDAST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q1 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
74.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
74.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 1 yd to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q1 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
74.4%
Christopher Dunn 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:1326% → 24%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
74.2%
Akers, Cam rush for 3 yards to the FLORIDAST33, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
74.9%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
75.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
76.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:1775% → 85%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
75.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 31 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
75.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+9
75.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
75.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
76.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (8 Yards) to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1917% → 27%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.6%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
82.4%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+40
83.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 40 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
73.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 35 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:1975% → 82%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
75.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
74.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+6
75.1%
Ryan Finley run for 6 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
76.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 15 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
77.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+35
77.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 35 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
77.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-3
78.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
77.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
81.6%
Christopher Dunn 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0819% → 19%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
80.6%
James Blackman sacked by Deonte Holden for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+12
81.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 12 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
80.6%
James Blackman pass intercepted Larrell Murchison return for no gain to the FlaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:1683% → 95%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
83.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
83.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Cary Angeline for 4 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+4
83.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+5
84.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 5 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
85.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
85.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 3 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 0:368% → 20%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
92.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 32 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
91.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 4 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-5
91.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
92.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+17
92.3%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 17 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
91.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+19
91.3%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 19 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
80.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 8 yds for a TD FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 8 (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
84.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4317% → 16%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
83.0%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
83.6%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
83.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 8 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-3
83.6%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 4:0687% → 89%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
86.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-1
86.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+4
86.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+3
85.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
87.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-1
87.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-3
87.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
89.0%
Christopher Dunn 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2112% → 11%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
88.1%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
88.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+6
88.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 6 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
89.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:2693% → 98%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
92.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 12 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
93.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+13
93.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
93.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+15
94.0%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete to Harmon, Kelvin, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDAST10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
94.0%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete to Emezie, Emeka, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 8 yards to the FLORIDAST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q3 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 2 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:173% → 10%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.9%
James Blackman run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
97.2%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
97.3%
James Blackman run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+37
97.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 37 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
97.3%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 18 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tre' McKittySimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 10 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:3495% → 99%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
94.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
94.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
95.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+24
95.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Cary Angeline for 24 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
95.3%
Finley, Ryan pass complete to Meyers, Jakobi for 11 yards to the FLORIDAST14, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDAST40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+18
95.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 18 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
95.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Brady BodineSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+10
97.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
97.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
97.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
97.6%
Ryan Finley run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 21 yds · 2:331% → 1%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
98.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 7 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
98.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
98.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+9
98.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
98.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
98.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+11
98.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 11 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
98.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-4
98.9%
James Blackman sacked by Tanner Ingle for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 14
OWN 49
-10
99.0%
James Blackman sacked by Xavier Lyas for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
99.6%
Brady Bodine run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+6
99.6%
Brady Bodine run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.7%
Brady Bodine run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
99.9%
Christopher Dunn 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-15
99.8%
Blackman, James pass complete to Terry, Tamorrion for 59 yards to the NCSTATE1, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul 15 yards to the FLORIDAST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 25
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 13 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+11
99.9%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 11 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+10
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
99.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 26 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.9%
Damontay Rhem run for 3 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Damontay Rhem run for 1 yd to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+3
99.9%
Woody Cornwell run for 3 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
100.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 47 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:290% → 1%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
100.0%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-7
100.0%
James Blackman sacked by Xavier Lyas for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+15
100.0%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 15 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 2
OWN 39
-5
100.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 7
OPP 46
+35
100.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 20 yds to the NCSTATE 46 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.2%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 31 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26Uncategorized
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 8 yds for a TD FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 8 (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q2 1:14
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q2 9:36
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 35 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com