Try the model
BC

Boston College 23 at NC State 28

NCSU
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:17 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:43: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:43: Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:33: Ben Glines run for 21 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +5.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:10: Anthony Brown pass complete to Ben Glines for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BC win probability +5.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q4 3:33: A.J. Cole III punt , Travis Levy returns for no gain for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +10.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 9 at NCSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:47BC 4th & 7 at BC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53BC 4th & 6 at NCSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:44BC 4th & 7 at BC 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:21BC 4th & 3 at BC 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:36BC 4th & 10 at BC 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:09NCSU 4th & 3 at BC 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:51NCSU 4th & 2 at BC 2, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:10BC 4th & 3 at NCSU 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:10NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 32, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:33NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 22, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:52NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:43NCSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:43NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:57NCSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:33BC Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:10BC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
69.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 10 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
69.6%
Anthony Brown run for 5 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+23
69.6%
Ben Glines run for 23 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
69.6%
Jeff Smith run for 2 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
69.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-1
69.6%
Anthony Brown sacked by Eurndraus Bryant and Larrell Murchison for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+5
69.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:4769% → 71%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
69.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
69.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
69.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 3 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
69.5%
Stephen Louis run for 6 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+20
69.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 20 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
69.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 13 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
69.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 13 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
69.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive offside (4 Yards) to the BC 3Similar
Q1 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the BC 3Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Reggie Gallaspy IISimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
70.7%
Ben Glines run for 2 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+8
70.7%
Ben Glines run for 8 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
70.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 1 yd to the BC 33Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+2
70.6%
Travis Levy run for 2 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
70.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
71.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 40 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for no gain to the NCSt 20 Thayer Thomas fumbled, forced by Mehdi El Attrach, recovered by BC Mehdi El AttrachSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0730% → 31%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
69.6%
Ben Glines run for 5 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-1
69.6%
Ben Glines run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 16Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
70.0%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
68.8%
Colton Lichtenberg 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5INT
14 plays · 71 yds · 4:5369% → 70%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
69.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 17 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
70.0%
Ryan Finley run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 2
50
+1
70.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 49Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
69.8%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
70.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-15
70.2%
Team run for a loss of 15 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+21
69.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 21 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
70.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+23
70.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 23 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
70.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
70.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the BC 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+6
69.8%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Zach Allen return for 6 yds to the BC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
68.5%
Ben Glines run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 5Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 12
OWN 5
0
68.7%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+5
69.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 5 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 7
OWN 10
+19
69.6%
Grant Carlson punt for 54 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 19 yds to the BC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
70.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+12
70.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 12 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
70.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
70.4%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Kevin Bletzer return for 6 yds to the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
67.5%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
68.0%
Ben Glines run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 26Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+8
68.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ben Glines for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
68.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:2569% → 79%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
69.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+2
70.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
69.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Cary Angeline for 24 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+33
71.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 22 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, personal foul (Will Harris) to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
71.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Zach Allen) to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
71.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the BC 1Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
77.8%
Ben Glines run for 3 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+25
77.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 25 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
76.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
76.9%
Ben Glines run for 5 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-5
76.5%
Anthony Brown sacked by Deonte Holden and James Smith-Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 39Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
78.5%
Grant Carlson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 1:4478% → 86%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
78.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 10 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
78.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 14 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
79.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+15
79.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 15 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
80.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-1
80.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 35Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
80.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Elijah JonesSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+7
79.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
81.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 19 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
81.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the BC 4Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Ben GlinesSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff Smith, broken up by Tanner IngleSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.1%
Ben Glines run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13MISSED FG
18 plays · 72 yds · 9:0587% → 94%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
86.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 12 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
87.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
50
+2
87.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
87.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Hamp CheeversSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+11
86.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 11 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
87.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
87.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
86.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 4 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the BC 26Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
87.4%
Ryan Finley run for 9 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+1
86.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
87.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 7 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+4
87.1%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, targeting (Max Richardson) to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
87.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 6Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
87.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 10Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
86.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the BC 2Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
93.5%
Christopher Dunn 19 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kevin Bletzer TEAM return for a loss of 20 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:4895% → 99%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
94.5%
Brady Bodine run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
50
0
94.6%
Brady Bodine run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
50
+16
94.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 16 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 34 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:182% → 7%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
98.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 8 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
98.2%
Travis Levy run for 5 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Chris GarrisonSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+28
98.2%
Anthony Brown run for 28 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
92.7%
Ben Glines run for 21 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:3395% → 96%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. Riley, broken up by Lukas DenisSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 15 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
95.3%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Terronne Prescod) to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+15
95.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
96.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
96.3%
Brady Bodine run for 4 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+8
96.1%
Thayer Thomas run for 8 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
96.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 36 Ricky Person Jr. fumbled, forced by John Lamot, recovered by BC Will HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:364% → 11%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+46
95.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 46 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
94.6%
Ben Glines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
94.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+3
95.0%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+11
89.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ben Glines for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Mike PalmerSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
92.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
92.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 78 yds · 0:008% → 11%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
91.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 35 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
90.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 7 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+10
90.0%
Ben Glines run for 10 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-9
89.4%
Anthony Brown sacked by Germaine Pratt for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+3
90.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+21
91.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 21 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
89.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Ben Petrula) to the NCSt 18Similar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+13
89.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 13 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+3
89.4%
Ben Glines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 2 Ben Glines fumbled, forced by Germaine Pratt, recovered by NCSt Germaine PrattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT RETURN TD
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:3695% → 86%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
94.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+1
94.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+9
94.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 9 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
94.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+1
96.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
96.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
86.4%
A.J. Cole III punt , Travis Levy returns for no gain for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:1690% → 96%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
90.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+7
91.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
91.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
92.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the BC 33Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+21
95.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 21 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 14Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 12
OPP 14
-1
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q4 3:33
A.J. Cole III punt , Travis Levy returns for no gain for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 4:43
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q4 11:10
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ben Glines for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com